Electoral lotery

 Poor people who voted demagogues are blamed unfairly that they are irrational.

But I think that is completely rational.

Most of the lottery tickets are bought by poor people.

Why ? Hope, with 1$ you can't buy much, but 1$ lottery tickets can change your life.

Of course is making more sense to save more or buy bread.

But if the lottery ticket is free, you can use it only once at 4 years?

Then it make sense to gamble.

Middle class and rich people don't want to risk their wealth at elections so they vote for stability.

The former even buy politicians to protect their assets.

Poor people on other side have nothing to lose, and everything to win from changing the system.

The Georgescu victory in first round for Romanian elections , wasn't a victory of TikTok.

It was a loss of establishment, after 2 years of pandemic, they had the bright idea to liberalize the prices of energy for households.

Of course the prices rose, with 30%, in part also because of speculations at energy exchanged.

Government didn't prioritized irrigations , and the drought of last year wipped out the incomes of small farmers.

Also government decided to increase taxes, which cooled down the economy.

Romanian muadib

 In a region with critical natural resources, an empoverished and opressed people, chose a religious leader a messiah to lead them against oppressors, influenced by myths created by a secret society.

The messiah uses this power to further his goals to take power for himself and his clan.

The military leader of the people grooms the messiah to unite people in a fighting force and chase the opressors.

The messiah leads his men to a bloody war 

Men follow him thinking that they will reach the paradise.

In fiction the region is Planet Arakis, the people are the fremen, Messiah Paul Atreides, military leader Stilgar, the secret society: Benne Gesserit.

In reality the region is Romania, messiah Calin Georgescu, secret society:members of the orthodox church,former secret police and army officers who continued a campaign of national and religious myths started in communist times and even earlier in the '30.

Strange Trump nominations make sense

 Robert Kennedy and Doctor Oz were name heads of health care.

Tulsi Gabbard is head of national security council.

All 3 are challenged by the current establishment and there will ve some bruises.

That reminds me of a Machiavellian trick, name a brutal person to terrorize everyone and remove your enemy. Then execute same person for abuses he made, and you will look like a saviour.

The Trump nominees will get rid of Trump opposition within administration and after that they will be dumped.

Why we choose liars as leaders? Part 2

 The current democratic elections require the candidate to step forward to be seen and analyzed by the people. His past life is analyzed, family followed and recorded. Can a normal person withstand such a stress?

No.But a person with narcissism can, and it will enjoy it.

The truth upsets people, but if you lie, you will convince some naives to vote you.

The smart guys from your camp will understand the lie, and shut up about it. While your adversaries will expose it, but who will believe them ? They are interested to smear you, to win. They are bad person's anyway. And a bad person can't tell the truth.

The selection process of democracies in general and of USA in particular selects for narcissistic and deceitful persons 

No wonder that in USA one actor (Reagan) and a media personality (Trump) were voted as president and an actor (Schwarzenegger) was elected governor.

Other countries that had media personality in politics are Italy with Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo, and Ukraine with Zelensky.

Why we are choosing liars as leaders ?

 First if the country is big and information space is cluttered by partisan propaganda and you don't have reliable source of information you can't decide 

If Trump says that Haitians are eating pets in Ohio, if you are in Texas you can't verify.

If the country is small then you might meet someone from Ohio to tell you that is truth or not.

Second is the bias, I admired Elon Musk and I discarded bad info about him until I watched a documentary on how he took over Tesla and kicked out the founder.

I also admired Jordan Peterson and I also rejected the criticism from the left till he expressed his opinions on war on Ukraine.

I admired Obama till I found out about his decisions regarding Afghanistan and 2008 bailout.

So to get rid of political bias you have to exposed to the truth, which is is hard in big connected world 

Or you should be exposed to well explained information for a long time, which is hard nowadays, when TikTok are few seconds long.

We should get rid of the notion that rational people will take rational decisions and choose the best people. 

We should go to a more Darwinian solution:

These should be a selection from a largely pool for candidates and a selection out for the leaders.

USA has a low selection pool, only 2 parties, and this causes the degerecy of the political class 

Russia and similar dictatorships have also the problem of selecting out of he dictator.

Despite blunders in Ukraine Putin is not overthrown.

Biden despite his mental state is ruling the country. 

In Roman Empire, legions made emperors and also legions overthrew them.

In middle ages feudal lord were deposed by rivals.

This stock refreshed the leadership and allowed survival of the state entity despite a crude and inefficient selection system for leaders.

My idea is: if we can't choose the best leader anyway, let's make possible to depose him peacefully I'd he is not fit 

In conclusion USA democracy has 2 problems: Low Pool of candidates and  low probability to change the president if it is ill (Kennedy,Reagan,Biden), incompetent (Trump), corrupt (Lyndon Johnson).

Trump election will trigger a war in Pacific?

 I imagine Trump winning and starting to have a izolaționist policy.

The huge US government debt forcing the US administration to make cuts in Defense budget.

This 3 event will trigger reduction of military presence in Pacific and embolden China to take Taiwan.

It is not necessary to take it, it is enough  to enforce a blockade and US navy to do nothing , to show  the serrif is no longer in town and China can whatever it wants with US allies.

If fall of Kabul was disastrous for credibility of US in Central Asia, the blockade of Taiwan will be a blow for US credibility in East Asia.

If Japan defends Taiwan, then we could have maritime war between Japan and China.

South Korea might think that while the North Korea's protectors are busy in Ukraine and Taiwan it could take it.

If they disable the nukes, and cross the DMZ, they could overwhelm NK army, Reach Yalu river, reactivate the NK nukes, and threaten china with nukes if it intervines.

What if theory of evolution have been discovered earlier?

 The theory of evolution of appeared in 19 century.

The modern parliamentarian democracy in 18 century with American and French revolution.

The ideas of capitalist free trade economy were systematized by Adam Smith în 18 century.

What if the evolution theory appeared before?

How the ideology of capitalism and democracy would have been ?