King etiquette for Donald Trump

 I see a lot of Trump and Russian supporters saying that Zelensky should have bended the knee and accept any shitty deal from Trump.

In Middle Ages the were seniors and vassals.

Seniors protected military the vassals, and vassals supported seniors with goods,money and troops.

No senior had the right to take the land of vassals.

If that happened the vassals had the right to rebel.

In European history there are numerous cases of wars started by conflicts between seniors and vassals.

Kings also showed the respect to their vassals otherwise they would have weaken the authority of their vassals in the eyes of their men.

The relation between US and smaller allies is of vassalage. US is the senior.

This is tacitly accepted because is beneficial for both sides.

If Trump wanted to Zelensky to bend the knee, he had to behave like Senior, protect his vassal and show him respect 

But instead he behave like the manager of a company, who wanted to fire Zelensky after a bad performance.

EU fragmentation could be an advantage

 The hostile takeover of US showed centralized leadership weakny. You take a spot and you rule the administration.

EU is fragmented and even if you take the role of Ursula you can't rule the Europe.

You have to take each country one by one.

The hardest to take over are monarchies: UK,Spain, Belgium Netherlands, Denmark,Sweden, Norway.

The second hardest are the Russia's neighbors that are not orthodox: Finland, Estonia, Letonia, Lituania,Poland.

Russia tried and failed to take over France via FN and Germany via Schröder, but these countries have their own powerful elites to block Moscow interest.

Except Czech republic, Slovakia and Hungary fell under Russian spell, they don't have the resources to resist alone, they don't have their own elites to be independent.

Maybe the crush of the Prague spring in '68, keeps Czech far from Russia.

Romania is more complicated.

There are elites that are pro Russian or anti western, and Russians leverage the influence of orthodoxy, but the hatred and fear of Russia in Romania is compared only with that of Poland.

Romania is pull rope between Russia, Europe and US now.

Their weakness is that they bet everything on US.

They bet everything on France and Britain in '30.

Bulgaria had string ties with Soviet Union, it is a Slavic and orthodox county it could be influenced easily.

Greece is an Orthodox country, had good relations with Russia in past, Russia had supported the Greek independence early.

Italy is more complicated they might use personal ties with Moscow for their own benefit. And the country is divided.

So Russia can't take over all EU by supporting its own candidates in the elections.

But it can block any initiative that requires consensus.

I think any decisions should be taken with 2/3 majority, to isolate countries like Hungary that supports Putin

Open letter to J D Vance

 I have listened the speech of vice president Vance, and in general he said that we must listen the voice of people, and risk sometimes with people decision.

Mister Vance, Germany risked once in 1933, with some fringe group and it ended badly in 1945.

European countries can't risk, they don't have an ocean between them and their enemies, if they make the wrong move, they disappear from the map.

So electing a fringe group is out of questions, and we have enough experience with fringe groups, we know how they look like.

True, the politicians refused to discuss some important issues like emigration s for fear of looking far right. And these issues must be solved by actual political elite so we don't have fringe movements.

But we don't need freaks to rule us.

George Carlin said: "you know how stupid the average person is? Well half of population is stupider than that"

With well done propaganda, and social media, you can convince more than 30% to vote against its own interests, and the if the rest of 70% is splited to take power.

Hitler had 30% popular suport when he took Germany.

4 types of people

Based on selfishness and long term thinking there's are 4 types of people:

Selfish and short term thinking: the selfish bastard that you don't want to work.

Selfish and long term thinking: the backstabber that climbs on corpses to reach his goal.

Altruistic and short term thinking's: the sucker who will be used by the types above.

Altruistic and long term thinking: the leader, the diplomat who will foster long term relationships. Usually victim of back stabber.

No China US war for next 4 years, because of Trump

 Those who claim that China will invade Taiwan next week and start a war with US think as Europeans or Americans.

Chinese are thinking differently.

They are long term thinkers.

In US and to some extent in Europe the Chinese stereotype is of one a person's who excels in intellectual endeavours.

And those intelectual endeavours require patience and long term commitment.

Also I know a Chinese story about a butcher who never sharped his knife.

Sun Tzu says that you should start a battle when you won it before.

So why CCP should hurry to attack now?

When it could wait 4 years till Trump and Musk run everything a ground and US doesn't have allies.

When US will be weak with internal fights then it will offer Taiwan a offer that they can't refuse.

China attacked India a greater foe but it didn't conquered Macao a city 'defended' by a small and weak Portugal.

It preferred to take it peacefully because it was more effective.

I think a resurgence of US after Trump will trigger a war with China, because China will not see another opportunity.

Musk the wedge between EU and US

 It seems that Elon Musk's fascist salute, is an expression of Musk's involvement in European nationalist and xenophobic politics in EU and UK.

(In US Musk is pro immigration, but it n UE, UK is against, strange)

What is interesting is that nobody from Trump administration doesn't stop him 

Brexit has destabilized Europe. The old was held together by cooperation of 3 former enemies: UK,France and Germany.

Aggressive involment of Musk in EU politics, and the fact that Whitehouse or State Dept doesn't reign him in, will deepen divides between US and EU. 

Which will be the joy of Beijing who tries for years to woo away EU from US .

I wonder what is happening with Tesla factories in China.

Electoral lotery

 Poor people who voted demagogues are blamed unfairly that they are irrational.

But I think that is completely rational.

Most of the lottery tickets are bought by poor people.

Why ? Hope, with 1$ you can't buy much, but 1$ lottery tickets can change your life.

Of course is making more sense to save more or buy bread.

But if the lottery ticket is free, you can use it only once at 4 years?

Then it make sense to gamble.

Middle class and rich people don't want to risk their wealth at elections so they vote for stability.

The former even buy politicians to protect their assets.

Poor people on other side have nothing to lose, and everything to win from changing the system.

The Georgescu victory in first round for Romanian elections , wasn't a victory of TikTok.

It was a loss of establishment, after 2 years of pandemic, they had the bright idea to liberalize the prices of energy for households.

Of course the prices rose, with 30%, in part also because of speculations at energy exchanged.

Government didn't prioritized irrigations , and the drought of last year wipped out the incomes of small farmers.

Also government decided to increase taxes, which cooled down the economy.