marți, 15 octombrie 2024

Trump election will trigger a war in Pacific?

 I imagine Trump winning and starting to have a izolaționist policy.

The huge US government debt forcing the US administration to make cuts in Defense budget.

This 3 event will trigger reduction of military presence in Pacific and embolden China to take Taiwan.

It is not necessary to take it, it is enough  to enforce a blockade and US navy to do nothing , to show  the serrif is no longer in town and China can whatever it wants with US allies.

If fall of Kabul was disastrous for credibility of US in Central Asia, the blockade of Taiwan will be a blow for US credibility in East Asia.

If Japan defends Taiwan, then we could have maritime war between Japan and China.

South Korea might think that while the North Korea's protectors are busy in Ukraine and Taiwan it could take it.

If they disable the nukes, and cross the DMZ, they could overwhelm NK army, Reach Yalu river, reactivate the NK nukes, and threaten china with nukes if it intervines.

What if theory of evolution have been discovered earlier?

 The theory of evolution of appeared in 19 century.

The modern parliamentarian democracy in 18 century with American and French revolution.

The ideas of capitalist free trade economy were systematized by Adam Smith în 18 century.

What if the evolution theory appeared before?

How the ideology of capitalism and democracy would have been ?

miercuri, 9 octombrie 2024

Why you should ignore Nietzsche

 First it is hard to write.

Second besides teaching philosophy at Basel he didn't created or did anything.

Compare him with the contemporary Bismarck:

Otto von B was involved in politics he created Germany. He knew people and  he understood the world.

I have problems I prefer the advice of a Bismarck over the advice of a Nietzsche.

Honestly I had enough to stumble on internet over Nietzsche 

duminică, 6 octombrie 2024

Curtea constituțională blochează accesul lui Sosoanca la prezidențiale

 Au auzit în social media că Diana Șosoanca a fost descalificata de Curtea Constituțională in a participa la prezidențiale, lăsând la o parte motivațiile iată care sunt efectele:

- pe termen scurt: un candidat populist este oprit dar i sa da apa la moara. Ea poate folosi acest lucru pentru a arăta că sistemul nu se poate schimba prin alegeri. Electoratul ei va fi mai permisiv la o schimbare in forță a sistemului 

- pe termen mediu: voturile ei se vor duce la George Simion. Poate va ajunge in turul doi. Poate turul 2 va fi intre Simion și Ciolacu. Unfel de tur Vadim Iliescu.

Dar mă îndoiesc de victoria lui Ciolacu. La țară se votează Aur, cei de la oraș, unii nu vor vota Ciolacu in turul 2, alții vor vota Simion.

Baza electoratului lui Ciolacu se va rezuma in turul 2 la simpatizanții PSD de la oraș. 

-pe termen lung se va crea un precedent în care Curtea Constituțională numita politic se va amesteca in alegerile care trebuie sa fie voința poporului.

Va fi o decădere treptată a democrației, vom ajunge un soi de Mexic 2.0 (acolo langa farul democrației din 1924 până în anii '80 a guvernat același partid, deși erau alegeri, și nominal Mexicul era o democrație)



sâmbătă, 7 septembrie 2024

The food in communist Romania was bio ?

 I had some online arguments with some western communist about the life in Soviet block.

I will summarize my experience in '80 communist Romania and explain how we got food 

We got the vegetables,cheese and live chicken from peasants that grow them on their small gardens,around their houses , so they had between 500m^2 to 2000^2.

Also the sheets who herded sheep were not colectuved and they were free to sell their cheese.

This small commerce with food was tolerated by communists because in the '40 and '50 we had a famine that we overcame it also with help of USA.

The Romanian communist were not idelogues like in Soviet Union they were pragmatic. I think Romanians don't buy too hard in ideologies and they are rather pragmatic.

These peasants compensated for the lack of supplies in state stores.

As for meat state store you could rarely find pig feet, chicken feet, wings and neck. Stuff you don't feed a dog today.

The eggs were rationed,cooking oil was rationed, 1-2 l/month, sugar was rationed at 1 kg/month.

Everyone had a ration card for these products.

Potatoes were not rationed but they were low quality, what cannot be exported.

In my town the bread was not rationed, but you have to stay in line to get it. I heard that in some cities even the bread was rationed. 

In Bucharest and Sibiu, there were less rationalisation, for example you could buy eggs without ration card.

The agricultural production was highjacked by the state to get dollars, the agriculture was mechanized and chemicals were used.

It was a story that whole train full of apples was reject from a western importing country because it was full of chemicals, no apple was rotten.

While the country food was exported and we had to stay in line with our ration cards, the paisants with their small gardens feeds us.

The Romanian soil and climate is good for agriculture.

If you didn't he have big expenses and you had a surplus , you could sell it on a market with completion from traders or food importers, you could have a decent life 

The Romanian paisant owned a small radio and not a TV because at TV you would see only propaganda.

He didn't had a washing machine or a vacuum cleaner.

Few had refrigerators , most of people used caves in basement for cooling.

He used fire wood, and water from the well.

His children went to the city.

And as woman tod me: it is not a sinn to steal from the state.

So some grain from state farms was used to feed paisants chicken, if that wasn't possible, bread bought from city was used, because villages were not supplied with bread.

He didn't had acces to chemicals for plant and animal treatment, so his food and our food from market was bio.

After the liberalization in '90, traders pushed away the paisants from markets, imports suplimented and replaced some foods.

The small producer is too old to sell in market and the one who sells in market uses the same chemicals as in other countries.

In conclusion, a large class of paisants with small gardens, who lived like in '20, feed us preventing a famine like in Russia or China. Because scarcity they could not use chemicals, and their food was safer.

The tolerated open market with an unwanted protectionism provided us for a short period of time with bio food. 

This was done by accident not by design.

If the peasants would have been protected against rapacious traders and imports this could have developed in something good. Imagine 50% of your food being bio.

But this wasn't sustainable market and political pressures ended small lot agriculture.

duminică, 25 august 2024

How to exploit country resources

If a hunter in prehistory killed a mammoth of 1000kg  and it could eat only 100 kg of meat in a week. The rest of 900kg was a waste for him and resource for other hungry tribesmen so he could trade the meat for tribesmen help.

When the refrigeration was invented the farmer could trade the meat for money instead of social support.

Food, water, shelter, medicines have an inherent value because ensure the survibility, but beyond the actual consumption their value is given by the demand 

Other resources such as oil have value dependent of the Dem ad. The price of oil is not determines by what the oil producers are doing with it. Oil oozed from the ground for milenia, and besides some limited use in lubrication,watertighting and lighting, the local population didn't used much.

With invention of car by Benz in 1890, the demand has increased, and the price has risen. 

Technology has created value for a resource.

Well then with all this new resource the oil producers countries became rich, right ?

If you have resources and you can't defend them , then you don't have them.

These are the 3 steps for selling you country resources:

1. Cover internal consumption

2. Sell the excess to countries that developed the technology that raised the price of the resource 

3. Build an army to defend the resources.

There are people who oppose selling the resources because they think that they have an instrinsic value.

They don't, their value is driven by the demand, and if you don't sell them, the buyer will change the technology an you will stay with resources on the ground or with the harvest rotting in the field.


miercuri, 14 august 2024

Matter good, idealism bad

 When you make something with your hands, you feel a satisfaction at the end.

When you think about something you feel worried, stressed.

Because ideas are in the potential field always in future always in peril of disappearing.

The ideal world is in contradiction with imperfect reality, and produces insatisfaction.All the totalitarian regimes were ideas that tried to impose on people.

The market economy was material real, not imposing, and gave results that worked. It produced stuff that made people happy.

Finally materialistic merchants vanquished the idealistic totalitarianism of fascists and communists.