duminică, 10 noiembrie 2024

Why we choose liars as leaders? Part 2

 The current democratic elections require the candidate to step forward to be seen and analyzed by the people. His past life is analyzed, family followed and recorded. Can a normal person withstand such a stress?

No.But a person with narcissism can, and it will enjoy it.

The truth upsets people, but if you lie, you will convince some naives to vote you.

The smart guys from your camp will understand the lie, and shut up about it. While your adversaries will expose it, but who will believe them ? They are interested to smear you, to win. They are bad person's anyway. And a bad person can't tell the truth.

The selection process of democracies in general and of USA in particular selects for narcissistic and deceitful persons 

No wonder that in USA one actor (Reagan) and a media personality (Trump) were voted as president and an actor (Schwarzenegger) was elected governor.

Other countries that had media personality in politics are Italy with Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo, and Ukraine with Zelensky.

vineri, 8 noiembrie 2024

Why we are choosing liars as leaders ?

 First if the country is big and information space is cluttered by partisan propaganda and you don't have reliable source of information you can't decide 

If Trump says that Haitians are eating pets in Ohio, if you are in Texas you can't verify.

If the country is small then you might meet someone from Ohio to tell you that is truth or not.

Second is the bias, I admired Elon Musk and I discarded bad info about him until I watched a documentary on how he took over Tesla and kicked out the founder.

I also admired Jordan Peterson and I also rejected the criticism from the left till he expressed his opinions on war on Ukraine.

I admired Obama till I found out about his decisions regarding Afghanistan and 2008 bailout.

So to get rid of political bias you have to exposed to the truth, which is is hard in big connected world 

Or you should be exposed to well explained information for a long time, which is hard nowadays, when TikTok are few seconds long.

We should get rid of the notion that rational people will take rational decisions and choose the best people. 

We should go to a more Darwinian solution:

These should be a selection from a largely pool for candidates and a selection out for the leaders.

USA has a low selection pool, only 2 parties, and this causes the degerecy of the political class 

Russia and similar dictatorships have also the problem of selecting out of he dictator.

Despite blunders in Ukraine Putin is not overthrown.

Biden despite his mental state is ruling the country. 

In Roman Empire, legions made emperors and also legions overthrew them.

In middle ages feudal lord were deposed by rivals.

This stock refreshed the leadership and allowed survival of the state entity despite a crude and inefficient selection system for leaders.

My idea is: if we can't choose the best leader anyway, let's make possible to depose him peacefully I'd he is not fit 

In conclusion USA democracy has 2 problems: Low Pool of candidates and  low probability to change the president if it is ill (Kennedy,Reagan,Biden), incompetent (Trump), corrupt (Lyndon Johnson).

marți, 15 octombrie 2024

Trump election will trigger a war in Pacific?

 I imagine Trump winning and starting to have a izolaționist policy.

The huge US government debt forcing the US administration to make cuts in Defense budget.

This 3 event will trigger reduction of military presence in Pacific and embolden China to take Taiwan.

It is not necessary to take it, it is enough  to enforce a blockade and US navy to do nothing , to show  the serrif is no longer in town and China can whatever it wants with US allies.

If fall of Kabul was disastrous for credibility of US in Central Asia, the blockade of Taiwan will be a blow for US credibility in East Asia.

If Japan defends Taiwan, then we could have maritime war between Japan and China.

South Korea might think that while the North Korea's protectors are busy in Ukraine and Taiwan it could take it.

If they disable the nukes, and cross the DMZ, they could overwhelm NK army, Reach Yalu river, reactivate the NK nukes, and threaten china with nukes if it intervines.

What if theory of evolution have been discovered earlier?

 The theory of evolution of appeared in 19 century.

The modern parliamentarian democracy in 18 century with American and French revolution.

The ideas of capitalist free trade economy were systematized by Adam Smith în 18 century.

What if the evolution theory appeared before?

How the ideology of capitalism and democracy would have been ?

miercuri, 9 octombrie 2024

Why you should ignore Nietzsche

 First it is hard to write.

Second besides teaching philosophy at Basel he didn't created or did anything.

Compare him with the contemporary Bismarck:

Otto von B was involved in politics he created Germany. He knew people and  he understood the world.

I have problems I prefer the advice of a Bismarck over the advice of a Nietzsche.

Honestly I had enough to stumble on internet over Nietzsche 

duminică, 6 octombrie 2024

Curtea constituțională blochează accesul lui Sosoanca la prezidențiale

 Au auzit în social media că Diana Șosoanca a fost descalificata de Curtea Constituțională in a participa la prezidențiale, lăsând la o parte motivațiile iată care sunt efectele:

- pe termen scurt: un candidat populist este oprit dar i sa da apa la moara. Ea poate folosi acest lucru pentru a arăta că sistemul nu se poate schimba prin alegeri. Electoratul ei va fi mai permisiv la o schimbare in forță a sistemului 

- pe termen mediu: voturile ei se vor duce la George Simion. Poate va ajunge in turul doi. Poate turul 2 va fi intre Simion și Ciolacu. Unfel de tur Vadim Iliescu.

Dar mă îndoiesc de victoria lui Ciolacu. La țară se votează Aur, cei de la oraș, unii nu vor vota Ciolacu in turul 2, alții vor vota Simion.

Baza electoratului lui Ciolacu se va rezuma in turul 2 la simpatizanții PSD de la oraș. 

-pe termen lung se va crea un precedent în care Curtea Constituțională numita politic se va amesteca in alegerile care trebuie sa fie voința poporului.

Va fi o decădere treptată a democrației, vom ajunge un soi de Mexic 2.0 (acolo langa farul democrației din 1924 până în anii '80 a guvernat același partid, deși erau alegeri, și nominal Mexicul era o democrație)



sâmbătă, 7 septembrie 2024

The food in communist Romania was bio ?

 I had some online arguments with some western communist about the life in Soviet block.

I will summarize my experience in '80 communist Romania and explain how we got food 

We got the vegetables,cheese and live chicken from peasants that grow them on their small gardens,around their houses , so they had between 500m^2 to 2000^2.

Also the sheets who herded sheep were not colectuved and they were free to sell their cheese.

This small commerce with food was tolerated by communists because in the '40 and '50 we had a famine that we overcame it also with help of USA.

The Romanian communist were not idelogues like in Soviet Union they were pragmatic. I think Romanians don't buy too hard in ideologies and they are rather pragmatic.

These peasants compensated for the lack of supplies in state stores.

As for meat state store you could rarely find pig feet, chicken feet, wings and neck. Stuff you don't feed a dog today.

The eggs were rationed,cooking oil was rationed, 1-2 l/month, sugar was rationed at 1 kg/month.

Everyone had a ration card for these products.

Potatoes were not rationed but they were low quality, what cannot be exported.

In my town the bread was not rationed, but you have to stay in line to get it. I heard that in some cities even the bread was rationed. 

In Bucharest and Sibiu, there were less rationalisation, for example you could buy eggs without ration card.

The agricultural production was highjacked by the state to get dollars, the agriculture was mechanized and chemicals were used.

It was a story that whole train full of apples was reject from a western importing country because it was full of chemicals, no apple was rotten.

While the country food was exported and we had to stay in line with our ration cards, the paisants with their small gardens feeds us.

The Romanian soil and climate is good for agriculture.

If you didn't he have big expenses and you had a surplus , you could sell it on a market with completion from traders or food importers, you could have a decent life 

The Romanian paisant owned a small radio and not a TV because at TV you would see only propaganda.

He didn't had a washing machine or a vacuum cleaner.

Few had refrigerators , most of people used caves in basement for cooling.

He used fire wood, and water from the well.

His children went to the city.

And as woman tod me: it is not a sinn to steal from the state.

So some grain from state farms was used to feed paisants chicken, if that wasn't possible, bread bought from city was used, because villages were not supplied with bread.

He didn't had acces to chemicals for plant and animal treatment, so his food and our food from market was bio.

After the liberalization in '90, traders pushed away the paisants from markets, imports suplimented and replaced some foods.

The small producer is too old to sell in market and the one who sells in market uses the same chemicals as in other countries.

In conclusion, a large class of paisants with small gardens, who lived like in '20, feed us preventing a famine like in Russia or China. Because scarcity they could not use chemicals, and their food was safer.

The tolerated open market with an unwanted protectionism provided us for a short period of time with bio food. 

This was done by accident not by design.

If the peasants would have been protected against rapacious traders and imports this could have developed in something good. Imagine 50% of your food being bio.

But this wasn't sustainable market and political pressures ended small lot agriculture.