Why Russia and NATO wants to believe that it will be a war

 If Russia conquers Kiev, it will be exhausted before taking NATO, the line of supply will be long and atta Ked by guerilla or NATO aviation. Eastern countries will mobilize fresh troops and the struggle to conquer them will be higher.

So why Russia threatens with war?

Intimidation, maybe some of NATO countries will balk and speed some negotiations 

On the other side NATO has to mobilize itself to discourage a bold action from Russia so the population must be wake up from slumber and support necessary expenses for defense.

The policy of Kremlin was to sell to the people ideea that they don't fight Ukraine, they fight NATO, and they use any scrap of evidence to prove it 

I don't understand why US bans use of F-16 against Russia.

How you gonna defeat Russia if you don't destroy its military industry ?

How you can destroy the industry without planes?

Russia and necessity to organize outside the state

 The elections in Russia just showed how impotent is the opposition without a structure outside the state 

When you use state infrastructure to communicate and to transfer funds, you are not able to create a momentum of people to overthrow Putin.

Communists and before them fascists knew this and they nationalised every Organisation from trade unions to boy scouts.

Russia needs an alternative structure, to undermine Putin and maintain stability after his demise . Otherwise it will be back 1992 but with a more selfish atitudine in the population.

Meanwhile in west the companies are eager to sell you a subscription model, where you rent your house, you rent your car, your information, only the weakness of the central government stops some western democracies to enter on an authocratic path as Hungary or Russia.

I am afraid what Trump will do with US intelligence power and power of corporations who concentrate a lot of information and infrastructure.

In dictators rise there are 3 phases:

- they mobilize a radical segment against their enemies (SA in Germany againts communist, social democrats and others)

- they get rid of the people they used for exacting violence (in the night of long knifes SA leadership was decimated by SS)

- they control the state Administration and each disident is dealt individually.

Trump could use right wing militia on democrats, then use national guard to quell right wing militia and bring 'order', he and his family will rule the Republican party who will win every election for next 20 years. Trump will leave the office after 8 yr. Then his sons or Ivanka will succed, or a puppet president will be set 

Luckily the states are independent, and people on the country side are self reliant and they could rebuild themselves.

If democrats think at betterment of US and want to stop Trump, the should convince Biden to withdraw and put a younger candidate.

Any will do.

Power of technology in Dune

 For those familiar with Dube lore. The navigator guild didn't put satellites on south of Arakis and Harkonens didn't know the real number of firemen's 

They controlled the information and transportation of the empire.

Why none of the houses competed with them ?

Know how for sure, but also cost, it would take years of development who couldn't be hidden.

Anyway houses were busy killing each other and not paying attention to the guild 

Similar technocracies to guild, today are social Media companies from US, Taiwan semiconductor producers, deep sea oil extraction companies and oil equipment suppliers,turbine supliers, airplane suppliers. 

Their products are complex and require a lot of capital to be produced. Like guild's starships.