Why Russia and NATO wants to believe that it will be a war

 If Russia conquers Kiev, it will be exhausted before taking NATO, the line of supply will be long and atta Ked by guerilla or NATO aviation. Eastern countries will mobilize fresh troops and the struggle to conquer them will be higher.

So why Russia threatens with war?

Intimidation, maybe some of NATO countries will balk and speed some negotiations 

On the other side NATO has to mobilize itself to discourage a bold action from Russia so the population must be wake up from slumber and support necessary expenses for defense.

The policy of Kremlin was to sell to the people ideea that they don't fight Ukraine, they fight NATO, and they use any scrap of evidence to prove it 

I don't understand why US bans use of F-16 against Russia.

How you gonna defeat Russia if you don't destroy its military industry ?

How you can destroy the industry without planes?

Russia and necessity to organize outside the state

 The elections in Russia just showed how impotent is the opposition without a structure outside the state 

When you use state infrastructure to communicate and to transfer funds, you are not able to create a momentum of people to overthrow Putin.

Communists and before them fascists knew this and they nationalised every Organisation from trade unions to boy scouts.

Russia needs an alternative structure, to undermine Putin and maintain stability after his demise . Otherwise it will be back 1992 but with a more selfish atitudine in the population.

Meanwhile in west the companies are eager to sell you a subscription model, where you rent your house, you rent your car, your information, only the weakness of the central government stops some western democracies to enter on an authocratic path as Hungary or Russia.

I am afraid what Trump will do with US intelligence power and power of corporations who concentrate a lot of information and infrastructure.

In dictators rise there are 3 phases:

- they mobilize a radical segment against their enemies (SA in Germany againts communist, social democrats and others)

- they get rid of the people they used for exacting violence (in the night of long knifes SA leadership was decimated by SS)

- they control the state Administration and each disident is dealt individually.

Trump could use right wing militia on democrats, then use national guard to quell right wing militia and bring 'order', he and his family will rule the Republican party who will win every election for next 20 years. Trump will leave the office after 8 yr. Then his sons or Ivanka will succed, or a puppet president will be set 

Luckily the states are independent, and people on the country side are self reliant and they could rebuild themselves.

If democrats think at betterment of US and want to stop Trump, the should convince Biden to withdraw and put a younger candidate.

Any will do.

Power of technology in Dune

 For those familiar with Dube lore. The navigator guild didn't put satellites on south of Arakis and Harkonens didn't know the real number of firemen's 

They controlled the information and transportation of the empire.

Why none of the houses competed with them ?

Know how for sure, but also cost, it would take years of development who couldn't be hidden.

Anyway houses were busy killing each other and not paying attention to the guild 

Similar technocracies to guild, today are social Media companies from US, Taiwan semiconductor producers, deep sea oil extraction companies and oil equipment suppliers,turbine supliers, airplane suppliers. 

Their products are complex and require a lot of capital to be produced. Like guild's starships.

Putin's interview

 I have listened Putin's interview and it reminded me about Ceaușescu.

Both old dictators, they have the same age now, 71 years 

Both fixated in the past.

Ceaușescu in 1400-1600, Putin in 1000 AD. 

They see the world in black and white. Ceaușescu has as enemies fascists and iredentist who wanted to broke Transilvania from motherland. Putin has the Nazi and the nationalists who broke Ukraine  from Russia.

Both blame west for their misfortunes, and have ties to China.

Both have frustrated oligarchs, that cannot spend their money.

Europe without US

 Peter Zeihan, has some videos regarding world after US 'retreat'. 

Empires have flows and ebbs.

The American empire had a flow in '50 then in '90.

Now it is an a ebb like in '60,'70, when much decolonisation happened.

But how a complete retreat of US from Europe will affect the continent ?

It will look like Middle Ages or in the 1600.

The European countries don't have anymore the huge colonial empires to decide the fate of the world so the scope of their policies will be focused on Europe, Mediterranean sea and Middle East 

For middle east they will compete with Turkey.

For north Africa it will be a competition with Algeria and Maroc.

Inside EU will be a competition for power in Bruxelles.

While the Scandinavian,Germanic block will be more stable, because of their culture to put community first and individual second, France will be a problem 

Like Britain , France had a powerful aristocracy that demanded personal privileges. See la Fronde

But unlike Britain where it was a negotiated deal between Barron's and king, in France a centralized state under Louis iv succeded to control and ruin noblemen.

After the system fell, during french revolution, the declaration of rights human right of man and citizen was issued, imprinting the personal rights into law and in nation's conscience.

But unlike Britain were you educated about personal responsibility, in France you have statism.

This is due to 2 military dictators: Napoleon 1 and 3, who took power during troubled times, did a pretty good job, but they reasserted the power of the state.

The same thing happened with De Gaulle, a military man who took power in troubles times and saved the nation.

So in my opinion in France citizens have rights and expect that the state implement these rights 

But now the state can't do it 

The state can't addapt fast enough. France based its colonial expansion on the state and army. Britain on the private entrepreneurs.

British empire was bigger and more economically viable. Britain took Nigeria a fertile country, France took Niger an arid country.

The state doesn't keep pace with reality also in Germany. Created by Prussian military to funnel economic resources to the army and railroads, to beat the french, the German state worke well in 19 century and 20 century.

But the climatic changes require a change in sources of Energy and in crop cultivation, addaption to new migrants.

War in Ukraine requires addaption of industry to the war.

Adoption of photovoltaic panels by individuals is hindered by bureaucracy.

The farmers are ignored in favor of big supermarket chains.

The German industry is not on a war footing.

The states who will not have the burden of a bureaucracy will fare better on the future. Alliances between small actors, between individuals will fare better than government.

We will return in an age in which loyalty between individuals and between senior and his servants will be more important.

France and Germany will be in decline, maybe Spain and Poland will rise.

Spain as an exporter of green energy and Poland as military power.

Mission of the artist

 Shakespeare has transformed the story of Romeo and Juliet, a story about some selfish families and selfish teenagers in a work of art.

Caravaggio transformed whores and beggars into saints.

Beethoven transform his pain caused by unshared love into musical piece 'Fur Elise'

Great artists transform the ugly into beautiful, dirt into ceramic and colors on canvas. Stones into sculptures.

Noise into to melody.

Who make the reverse is not an artist.

Split of Western Empire

 In 276AD, emperor Diocletian split the Roman empire in 2 for better management.

Now the western empire US and EU are facing the same problems as Romans in 276AD: barbarians at the border in Ukraine, succession crisis in US, decline of traditional religious beliefs.

Will the western alliance split? Will the western Europe asume leadership for realtion with Russia and Middle East ?

It happened before when western countries allied to contain autocrats who become too powerful like Lou's 14, Carol 5, and Napoleon.

But what it will be with US ?

They are still isolated geographically by 2 oceans, Mexico is still a problem but not big enough 

Usually the civil war in Rome appeared when it was safety at the border, leadership was weak, there was enough money to loot for paying legionnaires.

Without rejuvenation of political class, the people will be attry towards extremist politics 

Miorița este Bushido românesc

Am ascultat un Podcast cu Damian Anfile despre români

https://youtu.be/HJp74HFNwZ4?si=Ugwcrdg2n-zdAY1c

Și se pare că nici un om educat și cu studii în teologie că domnia sa nu a înțeles semnificația baladei Miorița.

In primul rând Miorița este precreștină, discuția cu animalele, comuniunea om natură, lipsa lui Dumnezeu indica faptul că balada își are originile din timpurile când se practică șamanismul in zona României.

Balada este o pregătire pentru moarte, spune ce trebuie făcut și rânduit după moartea eroului 

O atitudine asemănătoare întâlnim la samurai, care erau pregătiți în orice moment să moară.

Atitudinea asta se mai păstrează în artele marțiale japoneze unde participanții sunt îmbrăcați în alb, culoarea de doliu in orientul îndepărtat.

Orice s-ar spune samuraii nu s-au predat niciodată fără lupta. Și nu cred că ciobănașul mioritic se va fi predat fără lupta resemnat.

Din contră pregatindu-se sa moarta a luptat și cu mai mult curaj.

Faptul că noi nu mai înțelegem această balada a Mioriței arată că ne-am îndepărtat de oamenii care au creat-o și că de fapt ea nu ne mai reprezintă.