marți, 29 aprilie 2014

Worst fear of USA

The American government always feared that the terrorist will be in the possession of nuclear weapons. Now with hostage situation from Easter Ukraine, Russia a great nuclear power became a terrorist state.
I suspect that the next Bond villain will be Russian.

duminică, 20 aprilie 2014

Ukraine Anschluss

Events in Ukraine in 2014 are very similar with what happened in Austria in 1938 .
A bigger state with better economy and with a dictator as leader, occupied a neighboring country with a similar language without firing a shot.
The ease of annexation was caused by several factors:
-cultural similarities: Germany and Austria have the same language and a common history, Russia and Ukraine have similar languages, and first Slavic kingdom was formed at Kiev.
-an important political minority from annexed land supported the union.(Austrian Nazi Party respective pro-Russian parties)
-terrorist attacks were carried out by forces friendly to the authoritarian neighbor.
-after the occupation of the government a referendum was held (99.7% of Austrians  "voted" the Anschluss, while in Crimea 97% of people voted for union with Russia)
-Germany gained access to mineral resources, and hydroelectricity resource of Austria, Russia gained access to Ukraine oil and gas from Black sea.
What will happen?
After Hitler occupied Austria he tight his grip and started to arrest and kill people who oppose him, he confiscated the wealth of Jews and chased them out of country.
If Putin will gain control over part of the Ukraine the same thing will happen, the non-Russian population, will be convinced to leave and those who are stubborn will be individually persecuted. It seems that it is already doing this in Crimea.
Now only 9% of Austrians are consider themselves German, I expect that fewer and fewer Ukrainians to consider themselves Russians in near future.
The separatists from East Ukraine are using Maidan rhetoric and tactics.
If both side are using the same tactics and pretend to have the same ideology who should be supported?
The fact that Ukrainians overthrow their government shows that it is democracy that functions. You have a democracy when the people can stop some unpopular policy, not when you have organized elections.
 Russia democracy is organized by  KGB and Putin changes with Medvedev presidential terms in order to stay in power. The democratic elections serve only  to legitimate this system, and the freedom of speech is chocked under waves of propaganda.

If the 25 Mai elections in Ukraine will be held, the Kiev government will be legitimate and Moscow will not called them fascists without  insulting the whole country. And for sure the government will not be Russian friendly,even if pro-Russian forces gain power they cannot overtly support Putin.So it is in interest of Russia to  sabotage these elections and scare Russians with a anti-Russian fascist government in Kiev, because otherwise it doesn't have arguments to gain their support.
So the Ukrainian government should not start anti-Russian measures, should minimize casualties, expel the  agents provocateurs and seal the border with Russia. For the first 2 measures the government should do nothing, for the second 2 measures, a don't see enough drive or competence, either because they don't have the capabilities or some Ukrainian security forces are infiltrated by Russian agents, and Kremlin knows before hand their moves.

luni, 14 aprilie 2014

Understanding Putin

I just read the book "The Wisdom of Psychopaths" by Kevin Dutton and one chapter is analyzed the chicken game from movie "Rebel without a cause" .
In the book the chicken game is analyzed using a decision matrix from game theory.
Instead of Buzz and Jim in the matrix I will put Putin and NATO:
Putin non-psychopath Putin psychopath
NATO non-psychopath Ukraine is neutral or the influence is shared NATO refrains from use of force.Putin gains Crimea and tries to get more from Ukraine
NATO psychopath NATO pushes troops near Russia.Seeks to gain 100% influence in Ukraine,Belarus. Russia refrains from intervention, it is defensive,increases military budget. Direct war over Ukraine. World war 3 has just began.
It is clear that NATO cannot be psychopathic because of collective nature of decisions. This reduces the risk of an impulsive decision.And thanks to that we don't have yet WW3
But Putin it is in a ideal position for a psychopath: alone with all the power, surrounded by yes-men who obey to his whims.
The author Kevin Dutton has discovered that secret service work is ideal for psychopaths, because some jobs require to manipulate,cheat,steal and kill without being hindered by emotions or remorse. According to the book James Bond is a psychopath.
Putin was a KGB agent, he is an egomaniac who likes to be photographed shooting tigers,riding horses and flying planes. He doesn't show emotions in general.
If Putin is psychopath he will continue to defy and provoke the West, using peoples as pawns in a game to regain the strength of Russia, but he will risk ending up like Buzz, into the flames, because we doesn't understands and despises a democratic society.