duminică, 20 aprilie 2014

Ukraine Anschluss

Events in Ukraine in 2014 are very similar with what happened in Austria in 1938 .
A bigger state with better economy and with a dictator as leader, occupied a neighboring country with a similar language without firing a shot.
The ease of annexation was caused by several factors:
-cultural similarities: Germany and Austria have the same language and a common history, Russia and Ukraine have similar languages, and first Slavic kingdom was formed at Kiev.
-an important political minority from annexed land supported the union.(Austrian Nazi Party respective pro-Russian parties)
-terrorist attacks were carried out by forces friendly to the authoritarian neighbor.
-after the occupation of the government a referendum was held (99.7% of Austrians  "voted" the Anschluss, while in Crimea 97% of people voted for union with Russia)
-Germany gained access to mineral resources, and hydroelectricity resource of Austria, Russia gained access to Ukraine oil and gas from Black sea.
What will happen?
After Hitler occupied Austria he tight his grip and started to arrest and kill people who oppose him, he confiscated the wealth of Jews and chased them out of country.
If Putin will gain control over part of the Ukraine the same thing will happen, the non-Russian population, will be convinced to leave and those who are stubborn will be individually persecuted. It seems that it is already doing this in Crimea.
Now only 9% of Austrians are consider themselves German, I expect that fewer and fewer Ukrainians to consider themselves Russians in near future.
The separatists from East Ukraine are using Maidan rhetoric and tactics.
If both side are using the same tactics and pretend to have the same ideology who should be supported?
The fact that Ukrainians overthrow their government shows that it is democracy that functions. You have a democracy when the people can stop some unpopular policy, not when you have organized elections.
 Russia democracy is organized by  KGB and Putin changes with Medvedev presidential terms in order to stay in power. The democratic elections serve only  to legitimate this system, and the freedom of speech is chocked under waves of propaganda.

If the 25 Mai elections in Ukraine will be held, the Kiev government will be legitimate and Moscow will not called them fascists without  insulting the whole country. And for sure the government will not be Russian friendly,even if pro-Russian forces gain power they cannot overtly support Putin.So it is in interest of Russia to  sabotage these elections and scare Russians with a anti-Russian fascist government in Kiev, because otherwise it doesn't have arguments to gain their support.
So the Ukrainian government should not start anti-Russian measures, should minimize casualties, expel the  agents provocateurs and seal the border with Russia. For the first 2 measures the government should do nothing, for the second 2 measures, a don't see enough drive or competence, either because they don't have the capabilities or some Ukrainian security forces are infiltrated by Russian agents, and Kremlin knows before hand their moves.

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