Peter Zeihan, has some videos regarding world after US 'retreat'.
Empires have flows and ebbs.
The American empire had a flow in '50 then in '90.
Now it is an a ebb like in '60,'70, when much decolonisation happened.
But how a complete retreat of US from Europe will affect the continent ?
It will look like Middle Ages or in the 1600.
The European countries don't have anymore the huge colonial empires to decide the fate of the world so the scope of their policies will be focused on Europe, Mediterranean sea and Middle East
For middle east they will compete with Turkey.
For north Africa it will be a competition with Algeria and Maroc.
Inside EU will be a competition for power in Bruxelles.
While the Scandinavian,Germanic block will be more stable, because of their culture to put community first and individual second, France will be a problem
Like Britain , France had a powerful aristocracy that demanded personal privileges. See la Fronde
But unlike Britain where it was a negotiated deal between Barron's and king, in France a centralized state under Louis iv succeded to control and ruin noblemen.
After the system fell, during french revolution, the declaration of rights human right of man and citizen was issued, imprinting the personal rights into law and in nation's conscience.
But unlike Britain were you educated about personal responsibility, in France you have statism.
This is due to 2 military dictators: Napoleon 1 and 3, who took power during troubled times, did a pretty good job, but they reasserted the power of the state.
The same thing happened with De Gaulle, a military man who took power in troubles times and saved the nation.
So in my opinion in France citizens have rights and expect that the state implement these rights
But now the state can't do it
The state can't addapt fast enough. France based its colonial expansion on the state and army. Britain on the private entrepreneurs.
British empire was bigger and more economically viable. Britain took Nigeria a fertile country, France took Niger an arid country.
The state doesn't keep pace with reality also in Germany. Created by Prussian military to funnel economic resources to the army and railroads, to beat the french, the German state worke well in 19 century and 20 century.
But the climatic changes require a change in sources of Energy and in crop cultivation, addaption to new migrants.
War in Ukraine requires addaption of industry to the war.
Adoption of photovoltaic panels by individuals is hindered by bureaucracy.
The farmers are ignored in favor of big supermarket chains.
The German industry is not on a war footing.
The states who will not have the burden of a bureaucracy will fare better on the future. Alliances between small actors, between individuals will fare better than government.
We will return in an age in which loyalty between individuals and between senior and his servants will be more important.
France and Germany will be in decline, maybe Spain and Poland will rise.
Spain as an exporter of green energy and Poland as military power.
