I imagine Trump winning and starting to have a izolaționist policy.
The huge US government debt forcing the US administration to make cuts in Defense budget.
This 3 event will trigger reduction of military presence in Pacific and embolden China to take Taiwan.
It is not necessary to take it, it is enough to enforce a blockade and US navy to do nothing , to show the serrif is no longer in town and China can whatever it wants with US allies.
If fall of Kabul was disastrous for credibility of US in Central Asia, the blockade of Taiwan will be a blow for US credibility in East Asia.
If Japan defends Taiwan, then we could have maritime war between Japan and China.
South Korea might think that while the North Korea's protectors are busy in Ukraine and Taiwan it could take it.
If they disable the nukes, and cross the DMZ, they could overwhelm NK army, Reach Yalu river, reactivate the NK nukes, and threaten china with nukes if it intervines.
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