Nicolo Machiavelli in his book 'Art of war' says that you should not build a fortress with 2 walls, because the defenders will give up easily the first wall because they have back-up and they will seek refuge inside the inner wall, and thus the enemy will easily build a foot bridge.
Western Europe is like two walled fortress, the Eastern Europe and Ukraine being the external wall protecting against Tatars and Russians, and their economies being the inner wall.
So it is easy for them to trade Eastern Ukraine and Crimea for peace and mineral resources.
If they do so they might strength the inner wall temporary but they will lose forever the outer wall.
If Russia retains Crimea and creates a corridor to there,the Putin regime will get a boost, and the division between West and Eastern Europe will increase because East will feel betrayed.
The east Europe cannot secede from Union because they are weak but they will try to take control, and Poland,Romania, Baltic States and Scandinavian States could coordinate their efforts to diminish the influence of some Russian sympathetic states.
Germany is controlled from left with former communists infiltrated in SPD and from right with business men with ties with Russia.
France internal deficit makes it sensitive to big contracts cancellation, and has to choose between economic losses or political losses within EU in Ukraine crisis.
Most of the exports of France and Germany are within EU a boycott will damage their economies stronger than an increase of gas price.
Easter Europe has motivated soldiers, because there are people who survived Russian occupation and communism, and know that it is better to live in cold and hunger than under Russian boot.
Western Europe doesn't have a motivated population to endure a war with Russia but has the money and the guns, so all it has to do it is to give money and guns in Eastern Europe especially in Ukraine to assure that their citizens don't have to fight.
But for that they need guts to start a fight.
Western Europe is like two walled fortress, the Eastern Europe and Ukraine being the external wall protecting against Tatars and Russians, and their economies being the inner wall.
So it is easy for them to trade Eastern Ukraine and Crimea for peace and mineral resources.
If they do so they might strength the inner wall temporary but they will lose forever the outer wall.
If Russia retains Crimea and creates a corridor to there,the Putin regime will get a boost, and the division between West and Eastern Europe will increase because East will feel betrayed.
The east Europe cannot secede from Union because they are weak but they will try to take control, and Poland,Romania, Baltic States and Scandinavian States could coordinate their efforts to diminish the influence of some Russian sympathetic states.
Germany is controlled from left with former communists infiltrated in SPD and from right with business men with ties with Russia.
France internal deficit makes it sensitive to big contracts cancellation, and has to choose between economic losses or political losses within EU in Ukraine crisis.
Most of the exports of France and Germany are within EU a boycott will damage their economies stronger than an increase of gas price.
Easter Europe has motivated soldiers, because there are people who survived Russian occupation and communism, and know that it is better to live in cold and hunger than under Russian boot.
Western Europe doesn't have a motivated population to endure a war with Russia but has the money and the guns, so all it has to do it is to give money and guns in Eastern Europe especially in Ukraine to assure that their citizens don't have to fight.
But for that they need guts to start a fight.
