In 1945 at Yalta conference Stalin,Churchill and Roosevelt, split the influence in Europe.
The eastern European goverments were not involved.
Now Merkel and Hollande went to Moscow to decide the fate of Ukraine without Poroshceko.
Again the fate of the eastern Europe will be changed without the subject of this change to be asked.
So for sure, if it will be peace, Ukraine will lose sovereignty over some territory.
Maybe the Ukraine will become a federal state, with more autonomy for republics.
If Ukraine will have a federal parliament then the representative from eastern Ukraine will challenge pro western initiatives.
What it will be their leverage?
Many people fled the zone so the population density will be low in case of new election and they gain few seats. The political leverage will be low.
Prior the conflict the Donbas the Ukraine industrial heartland was heavily subsidized. , now it is in ruin, so the economic leverage is low.
The only leverage that they have it is military and this is limited by the Russian support, the western support for Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian army strength.
Russia supports the separatist because:
1.they need a corridor to Crimea through Mariupol,
2.they want to disrupt a pro western government in Ukraine
3.they want to send a warning to all neighbouring republics who want to leave Russian side.Message was received but the reaction will contrary of what Putin wants. Belarus,Armenia are trying to find a back-up solution in case of losing russian support.
Regarding disruption: Putin has made the maximum harm to the Ukrainian government, if he continues like this it will be a waste of resources. Ukrainian's have a civil war, their economy collapsed, and only the threat of the war keeps the government in power. only a nuclear attack or a full invasion will do more harm.
I think solving the Crimean problem will solve the Donbas problem.
I see 4 scenario's for Crimea:
1. a correct referendum organised by UN, in which population to answer what country to join,
2. a UN backed referendum for independence.
3. Crimea to be a federal state within a Ukrainian federation, with the risk of falling into Moscow influence.
4.Crimea to become like northern Cyprus a peaceful frozen conflict
On the long term the Putin system will fail, and eventually they will have internal troubles in Russia, and Crimea will be the last of their concerns. Even if Russia will win in all 4 scenario's it won't matter.
The worst for Crimea will be if they will be incorporated in Russia and they will share it's fate.
Why the Putin system will fail?
Putin it is mortal, and the actual paranoid system from Russia selects only loyal people not competent people.
Similar decaying imperial powers like Ottoman Empire and Portugal survived because they were propped up by emerging powers such as Great Britain and France.
But finally France and Great Britain split the Ottoman empire when they saw an opportunity after world war 1.
Now the only support for Russia is China. India, a traditional ally of Russia is leaning towards US.
Only nuclear weapons are stopping China to take over the Eastern Siberia, with its resources.
I don't think the Chinese will take a military action in Eastern Siberia, but they will use their leverage to gain economical control over the region and take what they want: cheaper natural gas, cheaper minerals,oil,timber.
They will replicate in Eastern Russia what the western powers have done in China till mid XX century: the emperor from Beijing was the nominal ruler, but in reality warlords and foreign powers controlled country.
The Eastern Siberia will be so economically connected to China, that the Moscow rule won't matter.
And if Moscow will try to reassert control, the eastern regions will will declare their independence Donbas style, with military help of China.
It is not he first time when a pocket full of money beats inner patriotism.
The eastern European goverments were not involved.
Now Merkel and Hollande went to Moscow to decide the fate of Ukraine without Poroshceko.
Again the fate of the eastern Europe will be changed without the subject of this change to be asked.
So for sure, if it will be peace, Ukraine will lose sovereignty over some territory.
Maybe the Ukraine will become a federal state, with more autonomy for republics.
If Ukraine will have a federal parliament then the representative from eastern Ukraine will challenge pro western initiatives.
What it will be their leverage?
Many people fled the zone so the population density will be low in case of new election and they gain few seats. The political leverage will be low.
Prior the conflict the Donbas the Ukraine industrial heartland was heavily subsidized. , now it is in ruin, so the economic leverage is low.
The only leverage that they have it is military and this is limited by the Russian support, the western support for Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian army strength.
Russia supports the separatist because:
1.they need a corridor to Crimea through Mariupol,
2.they want to disrupt a pro western government in Ukraine
3.they want to send a warning to all neighbouring republics who want to leave Russian side.Message was received but the reaction will contrary of what Putin wants. Belarus,Armenia are trying to find a back-up solution in case of losing russian support.
Regarding disruption: Putin has made the maximum harm to the Ukrainian government, if he continues like this it will be a waste of resources. Ukrainian's have a civil war, their economy collapsed, and only the threat of the war keeps the government in power. only a nuclear attack or a full invasion will do more harm.
I think solving the Crimean problem will solve the Donbas problem.
I see 4 scenario's for Crimea:
1. a correct referendum organised by UN, in which population to answer what country to join,
2. a UN backed referendum for independence.
3. Crimea to be a federal state within a Ukrainian federation, with the risk of falling into Moscow influence.
4.Crimea to become like northern Cyprus a peaceful frozen conflict
On the long term the Putin system will fail, and eventually they will have internal troubles in Russia, and Crimea will be the last of their concerns. Even if Russia will win in all 4 scenario's it won't matter.
The worst for Crimea will be if they will be incorporated in Russia and they will share it's fate.
Why the Putin system will fail?
Putin it is mortal, and the actual paranoid system from Russia selects only loyal people not competent people.
Similar decaying imperial powers like Ottoman Empire and Portugal survived because they were propped up by emerging powers such as Great Britain and France.
But finally France and Great Britain split the Ottoman empire when they saw an opportunity after world war 1.
Now the only support for Russia is China. India, a traditional ally of Russia is leaning towards US.
Only nuclear weapons are stopping China to take over the Eastern Siberia, with its resources.
I don't think the Chinese will take a military action in Eastern Siberia, but they will use their leverage to gain economical control over the region and take what they want: cheaper natural gas, cheaper minerals,oil,timber.
They will replicate in Eastern Russia what the western powers have done in China till mid XX century: the emperor from Beijing was the nominal ruler, but in reality warlords and foreign powers controlled country.
The Eastern Siberia will be so economically connected to China, that the Moscow rule won't matter.
And if Moscow will try to reassert control, the eastern regions will will declare their independence Donbas style, with military help of China.
It is not he first time when a pocket full of money beats inner patriotism.
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