joi, 10 septembrie 2015

Finnally Russia it is at the Mediterranean sea

In 1856 the Crimean war was fought to keep Russia out of Eastern Mediterranean sea.
In 1967 after the six day war Soviet Union was ready to send its army in Middle East to help its allies Syria and Egypt, but it was persuaded not to by the US threat of a nuclear war.
In 2015 US watches how Russia is sending troops in Syria to fight ISIS (maybe with its silent agreement).
It is a second victory after the Iran nuclear deal. The main supplier of nuclear technology for Iran was Russia. Allowing to Iran to have a nuclear program is opening a new market for Russia, who can diversify its revenues.So either you buy Iranian or Russian oil, the money goes to Putin.

A third victory can be, that Russia has its army in a area rich in oil, and can control the supply. An extensive conflict in Middle East will increase the price, and Russia can replenish its gold coffers by selling oil at higher price.
Maybe after they finish off with ISIS in Syria they discover some ISIS fighters in Irak and go there to make some order. (The Iraq people will regret Americans, after they will meet the Russian harsh rule) .
And which is the neighbour of Iraq? Saudi Arabia ? The main competitor on the oil market, and the number one sponsor for terrorism in Russia?
Will USA help it's Arab ally against Russia? They will risk a nuclear war for co nationals of Bin Laden?
The Saudi Arabia in this case is alone, Russia doesn't care about other Islamic nations. It doesn't buy anything from them, it sells them only old weapons. Pakistan will not dare to launch nuclear missiles to defend Saudi Arabia, because it will be obliterated, by Russian or Indian nuclear rockets.
Who will help Saudi Arabia? Europe? No, after the recent wave of propaganda against the Islamic invasion no politician from Europe will dare to defend them in public.
(Very good work Kremlin propaganda office, but a little advice: tell your people to criticise from time to time Russia because it is too obvious).
Anyway Europe is disunited, they don't have a solution to the refugee problem which will become more and more critical, and it will be affected by the high oil prices.
If Russia will move toward Middle East , it will be capable to maintain the Eastern Ukraine?
Russia will be so involved in Middle East conflict that it will consume its resources and make a draw in Ukraine?
Or the turmoil in Middle East will affect Kiev backers and Ukraine wil remain in the orbit of Moscow?
A chinese scholar, after the unification of China by Huang Di said that the rulers who are good at winning wars, cannot make a country prosper during peace time, because the wars are won using cruelty and wile, while a country prospers when it is kindness and rule of law.
Putin's clique is not good at making Russia prosperous, but they are good at war.
Europe on the other hand has a good political bureaucracy which administers well the resources but it is bad to at taking fast decisions during time of crisis. EU must reform itself if wants to survive.





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