duminică, 29 martie 2020

The Alps are the new border of UE

The economical situation of Italy was bad before the corona virus crisis. the country is indebted 130%.
Now there are 1000 dead a day, the country is in lock-down, and in Palermo people they to get away from supermarkets without paying.
All the politicians from Salvini to president Matarella are requesting for UE help now.
UE as usual is slow to react, and Germany, Holland  don't want to open unconditionally the purse, but call for the use of European Central Bank fonds: the European Stability Mechanism.
Any contract is based on trust,UE is based on trust that countries wil cooperate.
A failure to Germany to help Italy will destroy the trust and UE.
So Germany in order to restore the faith in UE and silence anti-EU voice as Salvini, must give an humanitarian aid to Italy.
It must not fear of right wing politicians who are against.
German people including the AfD simpatisants, are in general decent people and they help other countries in need.
They were many donations from ordinary people to Romania.
For sure they will understand to help the Italy the country  were they spend their vacations.
The spontaneous support for Italy in German cities (the singing at windows) shows that an humanitarian aid will be favorably seen.
The humanitarian aid is a thing that must be done even with the risk of political career.
But what Angela Merkel risks ? How many times she can be chancellor ?
Anyway she  lost right wing electorate with refugees crisis, now it cannot win them back, with not aiding Italy.

sâmbătă, 21 martie 2020

Decision aid table for politicians during epidemic crisis

Below I made decision matrix for politicians in case of epidemic.
Maybe it will help them take better decisions  and don't do as Boris Johnson did to act as in case#1 when in fact situation is more like in case#2
The case#4 is the chinese case after the declaration of epidemic.
Hard measures can include closing pubs, travel restrictions, fines,city lock down.



No infections Big epidemic
No measures Case#1
Lives lost: 0
Economic loses: 0
Political situation: nothing changed
Case#2
Lives lost: maximum
Economic loses: maximum
Political situation: people will blame you for doing nothing. Civil unrest
Hard measures Case#3
Lives lost:0
Economic loses: big
Political situation: you can claim that your measures saved lives. People will be slighly discontent of you. Maybe they will forget about it at next elections
Case#4
Lives lost: Economic loses: big
Political situation: you can claim that you did your best but nature was strong and people were dumb and didn’t respect order. You can convince people that is the fault of undisciplined personas who disobeyed the rules, and deflect the blame. Public discontent will be lower that in the case 2 and 3

vineri, 20 martie 2020

Who is really important in a society

Now in this corona virus crisis we realised that we are depending on low paid workers:
-nurses
-truck drivers
-janitors
-sales people
-policemen
-delivery people
Now the Wall Street bankers are useless.
Maybe the corona virus crisis will balance the wage difference. Maybe the nurses will be paid more from now on.

luni, 9 martie 2020

You should talk about weather not about sports

The sports news are shinny but are useless. If you champion or your team wins the championship, you don't win anything unless you bet.You don't become a better athlete. You might have a subject to discuss with strangers and socialise.
The weather news are dull, but can make difference between life and death, because you know if an hurricane is approaching or if the weather is cold and you must change tires and take a sweater.
No wonder that all the old people watch the weather with interest and young people who don't fear death and try to socialise watch sports.