sâmbătă, 21 martie 2020

Decision aid table for politicians during epidemic crisis

Below I made decision matrix for politicians in case of epidemic.
Maybe it will help them take better decisions  and don't do as Boris Johnson did to act as in case#1 when in fact situation is more like in case#2
The case#4 is the chinese case after the declaration of epidemic.
Hard measures can include closing pubs, travel restrictions, fines,city lock down.



No infections Big epidemic
No measures Case#1
Lives lost: 0
Economic loses: 0
Political situation: nothing changed
Case#2
Lives lost: maximum
Economic loses: maximum
Political situation: people will blame you for doing nothing. Civil unrest
Hard measures Case#3
Lives lost:0
Economic loses: big
Political situation: you can claim that your measures saved lives. People will be slighly discontent of you. Maybe they will forget about it at next elections
Case#4
Lives lost: Economic loses: big
Political situation: you can claim that you did your best but nature was strong and people were dumb and didn’t respect order. You can convince people that is the fault of undisciplined personas who disobeyed the rules, and deflect the blame. Public discontent will be lower that in the case 2 and 3

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