In 1979 after a Revolution the shah of Iran Reza Pahlavi was removed from power.
He as Hosni Mubarak was a dictator backed by USA.
The revolt started during the president Carter term. He was as Obama a democrat who came in office after a corrupt republican president.
The American's didn't learned anything? You cannot build long term strategic policy on the destiny of a single man. It is like betting all your money on a single number on roulette.
You must have the plan B. In Iran they didn't. They have a plan B in Egypt?
The enemy is different now, in 1979 the enemy was comunism, 2011 is islamism.
A weak Egypt can help the Hamas from Gaza strip, even if the Egypt won't break the peace treaty with Israel.
If Mubarak falls and the islamists win. If islamist attack Israel and fail, the islamist cause will lose support of egyptian population.
If islamists win there will be an economic war, that will make life in Egypt a misery. Maybe the Suez canal will be blocked. A blocked Suez channel can affect the chinese export in Europe, and can increase the price of gas and oil from Russia.
Because the Suez channel affects mainly Europe, maybe we will see some NATO involvement there.
The only chance for Egypt is to become an democratic state with the help of the west.
And west must dispose of Mubarak very quickly, to gain sympathy in Egypt. They must support any democratic movement that is not supported by islamists.
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