Covid 19 pandemic has created chaos in many countries, also in China.
But China has the advantage of producing 30% of the world goods by quantity and every type of product. So chines doctors are having professional protected gear while western doctors had to improvise.
Putin used the chaos from Ukraine to annex Crimea.
Japanese in 1937 use the chaos from China to invade it.
Why China shouldn't do the same ?
Xi presidency was shaken by the pandemic, a national war will strength the unity of the country and dissenters will be silenced.
Milosevic has done this in Yugoslavia, the Argentinian junta did it 1986 and occupied Falklands.
The economic success was the silk glove that covered the iron fist of the communist party. But the glove is worn down, and the steel is more visible than ever. The communist ideology that made everybody equals was thrown to the dust bin of history when Deng Xiaoping said in '80: "Get rich"
Without ideology and without money to bribe people, CCP was left only with nationalism. And nationalism needs an enemy.
What enemy will China pick to fight ?
It seems that they are in good relations with Russia, we can exclude them.
They can go to the east and take Taiwan, and risk a naval warfare with US,Japan and other allies.
In naval warfare the technology is winning the battle.
In 1860 opium war few British Iron clad ship sunk all chines fleet.
In a war on sea China's strength in numbers is useless.
On east China has the economic heart,the majority of the population and of the economy, it is enough a missile to hit a power-plant and you can shut down a 10 million people city.
On the west it has India.
Between the Indian border and Beijing it is the scarcely populated Tibetan plateau.
New-Delhi is closer to the border.
It will be a land base war so China can deploy all its infantry and air-force.
There are people in Kashmir who want independence from India, and can offer information and guerilla support to Chinese.
Pakistan an ally of China, wants the region also.
There were 3 wars between China in India in region.
Conquering Kashmir region, China strengthens the ties with Pakistan, it can make an oleo-duct with Iran, and can have access to Indian Ocean.
The advantage for India is that is a mountainous region and can be easily defended.
It will be a regional war or a world war ?
If US decides to attack China in SE Asia ? Or at least to blockade the ports ?
A blockade on ports will reduce the imports of oil,iron ore and copper.
If Xi won't back because he can lose everything and Trump will not back-up either things will warm up and escalate.
US wanted to remove Assad because the wanted Russia out of Syria, and the civil war still continues today.
US can attack China coast, with losses but China cannot attack US coast without ballistic missiles.
The US has spread its economy and cities on 2 coasts, China has everything concentrated on east coast.It is more vulnerable.
US has no problem with food supply, China has a reduced arable land.
When e everything will be directed to the army, a new famine will emerge in China.
Communist party controls China and the anti-war movement can be suppressed in the bud.
US cannot control its democracy, people are tired of wars. The are worn by Afghanistan and Irak. US army is based on volunteers, China on conscripts.
If US doesn't finish in 1 or 2 years the conflict then will sue for peace, and will lose SE Asia. It will be a second Vietnam.
A Chines proverb says: "If 2 tigers are fighting one is dead and the other badly wounded"
IF China,US and India will collapse what will happen with the world ?
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