vineri, 29 mai 2020

Revolution in US?

What is happening in US is familiar to those witnessing a revolution:
In the country exists a charged atmosphere caused by economic hardship and arrogant leadership, see Romania in 1989, Tunisia and Egypt during Arab Spring in 2010 and 2011.
Then a minor event happen:
A pastor refuses to be removed from office (Romania), a fruit vendor self immolate (Tunisia)
People riot.
Government intervine heavy handed.
Misterious agents are infiltrated in the crowds to create more Chaos by killing people (Romania in Bucharest, Egypt in the Tahrir square)
Those who smash windows actually work in favour of the government because the anger is directed towards things not people. 
If people are eager to loot the shops this means that they are not eager to become martirs in a revolution.
Next step: people are surrounding key points of the government and media. Building of the communist party and television in Romania.
There are few outcomes from this tense situation based on what happened in Eastern Europe in 89 and what happened in Arab Spring
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring
- the leader is fleeing. But Trump cannot flee, only resign. And resigning it because some afro Americans are in the street is a huge blow for his ego.
- the government makes some concetions, and stays in power. But Ceaușescu tried the same thing in the last moment, and didn't succeeded because it was hated. Now let's say that Trump is a polarising figure.
- government crushes the revolution with it's own military forces or outside help. I don't see that happening in US. The culture of civil rights and disobedience is too engrained in US society.
- government tries to crush the revolution and things escalate to civil war. Trump was no shy about public violent speech, he might find a fool in the armed forces to help him. But trying to repress 300 million people who believe in freedom and have access to guns is futile, and will cause a civil war, which will be lost by Trump.
The good thing about US is that is decentralized government, and as we saw in this epidemic, states have enough power. Also there a lot of NGO that can help with the governance if the government really colapses.
So if Trump falls it won't be a vacuum of power and civil war as in Lybia.
If Trump stays in power he will be an atractor for public discontent and so long that people have a person that they love to hate, they will be united.
Good thing for US is that they have elections in fall and they can solve this issue peacefully.

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