duminică, 9 martie 2014

The Europe is my oyster, says the Russian stork

Russia threat to cut the natural gas supply to Europe.
Natural gas is used 92% as fuel and 8% as chemical feedstock according US Department of Energy.
So if the Russians cut the gas supply, mostly the energy sector will be hit.
But how dependent is Europe of Russian gas?
According to Eurostat European Office for Statistic: 62% of natural gas comes from outside EU and Russia's gas accounts for 31%. So Russian gas accounts for 19% of the EU gas (0.62*0.31), but the main customer for Russian gas is Europe 81% and Turkey 19%.
A halt on the gas trade, will hit mostly Russia.
Russia produced in 2012 more than 199.9*10^8 m^3 of gas,  so Europe imported 161.919*10^8 m^3, If Europe doesn't buy, where Russia will sell this gas?
To the East Asia through Liquified Natural Gas ships? They can sell only 7*10^8 m^3 through Sahalin terminal.



The EU gas consumption in 2012 was 4568972.433 GWh but the import in 2013 was of 1740.62*10^8 GWh (161.919*10^8 m^3*38.7 MJ/m^3/3.6). 38096 times greater.What they have done with all this extra gas? Where they store it?
It seems that Europe took measures to protect against a dependency of Russian gas and it has huge reserves. Also EU is reconsidering coal and nuclear as power sources.
The wind,solar and biomass energy counts for 20%  of Europe production and it seems it will the main energy source in future.The scarcity of resources in Europe will determine bigger investment in reasearch..

On the other side Russia has immense resources of  oil,coal and gas, any mineral resource in the world, it has enough water,population is not dense and it doesn't import much wheat (only 500 metric tonnes last year). What could be done to force it to leave Crimeea?
Only Kremlin incompetence stops Russia to be self-reliant.

The situation between Russia and Europe, it is similar with the one from the following Chinese story:
A stork, catched an  oyster, the oyster closed its shell locking the stork's beak. The stork asked the oyster to open the shell otherwise they will both die, the oyster asked that the stork open first, because it believed that the stork once free will try to eat it.Finally they both died, because no one gave up.
The Europe is oyster because it can only react to the Russian acts, while Russia is a stork that tries to pray on seemingly inoffensive oyster.




sâmbătă, 8 martie 2014

Book review: Moscoviada de Iuri Andruhovici o carte premonitorie

Cu o saptamana inainte de criza din Crimeea am cumparat "Moscoviada" de Iuri Andrihovici, fiind atras de scriitura lui.
"Moscoviada" a fost scrisa in 1992 si descrie peregrinarile unui poet din Ucraina de vest in capitala Imperiului: Moscova. Un talmes balmes de natii, de nebuni,alcoolici si curve, cu subterane adinci si pline de secrete, in care bantuie, trupe speciale, sobolani mutanti,KGB-isti si nomenclaturisti.
Poetul urmarind un hot de buzunare care se refugiase in subteranele Moscovei, ajunge asemenea lui Tezeu in acest labirint. Este prins de trupele speciale, si interogat de KGB.Dar este salvat  de iubita sa Galea,o crescatoare de serpi care lucreaza pentru KGB la dezvoltarea otravurilor.

In incercarea sa de a scapa, poetul ajunge intr-o sala de festivitati unde s-a adunat toata clasa politica din URSS la o petrecere.
Intrand intr-o sala de conferinte gaseste la prezidiu 7 personaje reprezentative pentru istoria Rusiei:
Ivan cel Groaznic,Felix Dzerjinski,Lenin,Minin si Pozharsky,Suvorov,Ecaterina a II-a a Rusiei,Anatoly Ivanovich Lukyanov, care asculta un bandit mascat cu un ciorap negru tras pe fata, rostind la tribuna urmatorul discurs:

"-Sa nu uitam: in momentele critice, chirurgia ne-a fost de un ajutor nepretuit. Marii maestri ai ARTEI DE STAT, nu se dau in laturi, speriati , nici macar de la interventii asupra portiunilor de carne celor mai bine irigate sangvin.Sa fi costat cat ar fi costat, dar era vorba de viitor, asa ca trebuia operat. Istoria noastra reprezinta o istorie a chirurgiei nemiloase.Ati vazut cum au pierit sub baionetele zbirilor, in pivnita casei Ipatiev, tarul Nicolae al II-lea si familia lui? A fost ca un scos de amigdale nu altceva.Caci STATUL trebuia sa mearga mai departe.Tarul cel hemofil, nici vorba sa tina pasul.Iar azi ne confruntam cu o situatie asemanatoare.Trebuie sa extirpam corpul bolnav dinauntru! Sa-i trimitem pe toti acasa si sa coboram cortina.
Va daruim de voi nadajduita, iertati-ne cuvantul, independenta. Si va invatam cum sa castigati referendumuri. Caci un referendum este un mod ideal de a manipula oamenii, de a le oferi iluzia ca ar urma sa hotarasca simguri asupra propriei sorti. Va invatam despre iubirea de STAT.Iar asta inseamna iubirea de: violenta, inselatorie si coruptie. Va asiguram libertatea deplina de a va prabusi in hau. Asa ca dati-le republicilor deplina,iertare, independenta.In toata povestea asta pastram ceva si noi.

-Ce-o sa se intample cu Alaska? intreaba generalissimul Suvorov,alunecand de pe scaun, cu dosul lui numai piele si os.
-Suntem gata sa sarim de in data in ajutorul vorbitorilor de limba rusa din partea locului.

Ciorap negru raspunde limpede si deslusit,fara sa clipeasca (lucru pe care l-ar putea face totusi)

-Sa nu cutezati sa uitati de Alaska! fornaie Suvorov.
-Stai linistit! Cacanar cacacios ce esti! tuna catre generalisim Ecaterina a II-a vorbitoarea de limba germana.
Lenin chicoteste rautacios in timp ce Anatoly Ivanovich incearca sa aduca la ordine prezidiul.

-Alaska in sus,Alaska in jos, se baga in vorba siretul Dzerjinski, dar ati spus niste vorbe interesante: pastram ceva si pentru noi. Ce intelegeti prin asa ceva?

-Viitorul,raspunde Ciorap negru, pentru ca nu punem de o parte fragmente fracturate.ci organe individuale, viabile. Asa ca pastram anumite, cabinete,comitete si organisme.Pastram o anumita verticalitate in ceea ce le priveste.Ca si marea si naturala tendinta de a se inmulti, de a se reproduce.Cel mai amuzant este faptul ca aceste organe (capete,maini,picioare,testicule) se-apuca deoadata sa actioneze in interesul republicilor independente.
-Chiar asa? intreba Lenin interesat.
-Bineinteles ca nu, tocmai asta-i gluma, confirma gura vorbitorului indoiala lui.In realitate nu fac altceva decat sa ne pregateasca viitorul.Caci la conducerea guvernelor proaspat coapte,pardon, independente, se instaleaza reprezentati legali numai de noi aprobati si chiar numiti de noi.Haosul naste haos.Iar acolo unde nu merge asa ceva ajung la putere niste bastarzi.Sau prostituati politic,Vladimir Ilici. Sau, si mai simplu niste nemernici. Totul inecat in cenusiu.In plictis. In marsavie.Valul entropiei care a sfasiat MARELE IMPERIU va nimici si statele,iertati-ma, independente.Caci vor arata ca niste caricaturi, cu presedinti numiti de noi, si parlamente cumparate tot de noi. Dupa cum si conflictele de granita ale sunitiilor si siitilor,catolicilor si adeptilor lui Krishna,ale ortodoxilor si budistilor zen.Incercarile eroice ale bancherilor occidentali de a le baga in cap smintitilor libertatea.Vrajbe starnite de foame,razvratiri si greve din interior.Treaba cu biserica si bordelul. Surplus de ucazuri,constitutii si declaratii inutilizabile.O halda de gunoi totala, ba nu mai multe halde de gunoi independente in frunte cu niste marionete imbecile.Acesta ne e planul.Popoarele vor privi mai des in urma.Si cu priviri tulburi, vor avea viziuni asupra MARII PUTERI-cosmica,inflacarata,larga,milenara.Prin comparatie propria independenta li se va parea tot mai bicisnica.Numai ideea si pare cu totul...
-...perversa,arunca vorba Ivan cel Groaznic.
-Multumesc, cam asa ceva as fi vrut si eu sa spun, se arata de acorde vorbitorul stapan pe sine. Pentru ca dupa aceea sa pretinda-popoarelea, vreau sa spun-sa-si redobandeasca PUTEREA. Caci totul li se risipeste printre degete. Se descompune. De jur imprejurul lor , nimic altceva decat o imensa gradina zoologica. Fara alternativa! Intelegand prin asa ceva mai degraba altenativa politica sau economica,decat cea morala.
  Izbunesc aplauze.
-Si ce se va intampla cu Polonia si Finlanda? se baga in vorba si Suvorov, de indata ce se sting aplauzele.
-Linisteste-te magar batran! se burzuluieste Ecaterina a II-a.
 Suvorov ii saruta mana, daca tot sade landa ea. Mana stralucitoarei tarine,nadusita,pistruiata si acoperita cu pudra.
-Totul o sa fie bine, da asigurari vorbitorul. Pe Polonia o s-o transformam de la o mare la alta, intr-un camp de aplicatii pentru trupe, in timp ce pe Finlanda o s-o inundam cu votca.Si-o sa mai ridicam si interdictia ei in privinta consumului de alcool, caci asa ceva incalca drepturile omului.
-Din nou aplauze generale [...]
-Si o sa urmeze ultima si definitiva noastra inviere,isi incepe din nou discursul Ciorap negru,acoperind valul de aplauze si entuziasm.Bratele si picioarele amputate cresc la loc,alcatuind laolalta un intreg.Ideea,ptiu, independentei sufera o infrangere globala,urmand sa fie plasata in constiinta oamenilor pe acelasi plan cu national-socialismul sau chiar cu perversiunile sexuale. Toti ravnesc la fructul interzis al imperiului.Milioane de oameni asta asteapta,sa fie facuti sclavi. Sa fie pusi la edificat piramide,canale,ziduri zvelte si poduri intinse. Individul ce isi afla sensul numai in imperiu.Caci imperiul nu inseamna decat un tel urias milenar. Tot el mai inseamna supunerea lumii intregi,comunism si mumiii nemuritoare in mausolee.Soare stralucitor si dinastii. Un turn, a carui constructie ar uma sa dureze zece mii de ani.Puterea armatei, arderi pe rug de vrajitoare si o miscare a popoarelor permanenta si tintind unirea. Mari copulatii ale popoarelor, pe parcursul carora cele mari le inghit pe cele mici, cele puternice pe cele slabe. Monumente si mituri,fluvii,ale caror cursuri vor fi intoarse,triumf al psihiatrilor,patologilor si al pasararilor ...
- Si cu Franta cum ramane? se vara din nou in vorba Suvorov.
-Nataraule! se stropseste Ecaterina a II-a.
Greoi si plin de incredere, Suvorov isi aseaza bratul in jurul taliei tarinei, lucru care se poate vedea pana si din ultimul rand.
-Acolo, in Franta o sa locuim, da asigurari vorbitorul. Reprezentantii celei mai sus paturi, cu deosebire participantii la simpozionul de astazi, urmeaza sa detina apartamente cu cinci sau sase camere, plus loggia, la Paris,Marsilia si Nisa.
-Si ce se va intampla cu francezii? se face auzit in amfitreatru un glas,printre aplauze.
-Aia vor fi deportati in desrtul Gobi,se arata Ciorap negru, ca de obicei, cu raspunsul parca gata pregatit. De altfel,chiar as dori sa fac unele precizari in legatura cu problema deportarii,caci aceasta va reprezenta cel mai important vector al politicii noastre extern... aaa...interne.
-Intelepte ganduri! rosteste Lenin, scotand la iveala, din buzunarul de la vesta, o ditamai ridichea alba, din care musca zgomotos.
-Carevasazica,deportarea reprezinta,dupa cum stiti din marea si din pacate,hulita...
-Ticaloasa,corecteaza Ivan cel Groaznic.
-Multumesc,dar nu se potriveste catusi de putin, rosteste ploconindu-se vorbitorul...dupa cum stiti din eroica noastra istorie, deportarea reprezinta un mijloc minunat de contracarare a oricerei probleme nationale.Important sa-i stramuti pe ciukotki in Valea Ararat, pe moldoveni in Arhipelagul Franz Joseph, cu toate ca pe-acolo le-ar sedea cu mult mai bine austriecilor. In afara de asta,se propune ca unii sa schimbe pur si simplu intre ei tinuturile in care au vietuit: lituanienii cu vietnamezii,elvetienii cu chinezii si ungurii cu uigurii. Sustinand astfel ideea marilor migratii ale popoarelor, vom contribui la aparitia de natiuni si populatii himerice, nou-noute,cu nume dintre cele mai sucita, de care s-a rusina pana si ele insele: rusiaci,ucraliti,karelo-mingrelit, cehosboslovati, romangoli, olandazeri, elevegreci, greedezi, francezuzbeci, kurziancezi,iudosvabi si carpatoruteni.
[...]
-MAREA PRABUSIRE va fi oprita! MARELE HAOS va fi infrant ! MAREA SIMFONIE conduce omenirea catre o migratie milenara. Ne pazim sanctuarele printr-un hatis de nepatruns,de plante agatatoare si armament. O unica orchestra a dependentei totale si ...
 Pentru o clipa vorbitorul face o pauza.Suficient insa pentru Minin si Pojarki, care pana atunci se aratasera de parca nu ar fi avut viata in ei, sa lanseze o intregare asa, in duet:
-Dar cine o sa fie seful?
-Poporul! o tranteste Ciorap negru, plin de el,facandu-i pe toti sa izbucneasca in hohote de ras."

La final poetul ii impusca pe toti iar sobolanii uriasi navalesc in sala de converinta si sfasie totul.

Este interesant ca analiza sistemului sovietic si a tacticilor folosite de Rusia, nu si-a pierdut valabilitatea mai bine, de 20 de ani. Daca analistii pentru Rusia si Ucraina ar fi citit aceasta carte nu ar fi fost surprinsi de evenimentele din Crimeea. (Pacat ca autorul nu a investit la timp in imobiliare pe Coasta de Aur pentru a revinde casele oligarhiei ruse).

Un alt lucru intresant in carte este atitudinea ostila a ucrainienilor fata de moscoviti, ce se regaseste in cartea acestui autor moderat, care scrie si in ucraineana si in rusa.
Putin a declarat ca Ucraina si Rusia sunt 2 tari surori. Dar se pare ca diferentele merg dincolo de limba, deoarece nimeni nu avut curajul sa alipeasca Ucraina la Republica Socialista Rusa in timpul sovietelor, preferand fie sa extermine populatia ucrainieana prin foamete (Stalin) fie sa micsoreze procentul de ucrainieni prin adaugarea Crimeii (Hrusciov). Daca iubirea intre ucrainieni si rusi era asa puternica, de ce nu s-au unit aceste tari?
Republica Socialist Rusa, administra un teritoriu de la Don la Pacific, ce mai conta cateva mii de hectare in plus?
Vestul Ucrainei este plexul solar al Europei, o forta de invazie venita pe acolo, nu are nici un obstacol fizic major care sa o opreasca din cucerirea Europei Centrale. De aceea toate puterile din Europa centrala (Polonia,Austria) au incercat sa controleze aceasta regiune, iar populatia este mai degraba pro-occidentala decat pro-rusa,stapanirea rusa in vestul Ucrainei fiind recenta, unele regiuni fiind ocupate de rusi dupa al doilea razboi mondial, dupa o rezistenta incrancenata.
Oricum ucrainienii per total nu prea au ce regreta dupa vremea URSS.
Marturia incompetentei conducerii de atunci aflandu-se la 141km nord de Kiev la Cernobil.


sâmbătă, 1 martie 2014

Irony

During the cold war the world avoided the start of the third one and nuclear annihilation. Now it seems we are going back in the '50.

miercuri, 22 ianuarie 2014

Barbarians wearing suits

I saw "The Wolf of Wall Street" and I can say that it is a continuation of  "Gangs of New York". If the "Gangs of New York" is about the birth of America, and the building of it by some poor European emigrants, "The Wolf ..." is about today's America, and the pursuit of the American dream inside America.
It is like the Wall Street has replaced the Statue of Liberty and has adresed  the following call to the scum of American society:
 "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
And they cram to the golden door: losers who didn't finish the high school,too ugly and too dumb to get laid.Guys smart enough to read  the lines written by their sociopathic boss Jordan Belfort.
Jordan Belfort gathers this bunch of barbarians, he dress them in nice suits, he learns them to speak, an then unleashes them to plunder people's savings.
Except the FBI agents, in the movie everybody wants to be rich, the victims of the con and the con artist themselves. Some are guilty of laziness some of greed.
The script is like it would have been written by Sigmund Freud: men are motivated by sex, fuck, and cock sucker are the most used word and women by greed.

The main character has only one skill that helps him achieving the American dream: lack of moral restraint.

He sells over evaluated stocks, he inflates the stock price that he owns and then he sells them, he is cheating and lying his first and second wife, he is eating drugs like candy's. He betrays his friends to escape prosecution.He is doing what others wouldn't do, and because of that he piles a ton of money.But  the fall is deeper: because his lack of restraint, he doesn't quit the schemes while he still can, and he cannot abstain from taking drugs.
Alone without wife and child, he is facing 20 years of prison, he should incriminate all the colleagues who supported him.

The movie questions the morality of the capital market. Despite Wall Street's PR effort to separate the real person Jordan Belfort from the Wall Street, the damage made by Jordan is lower than Bernie Madoff's ex Wall Street tychoon, and money attracts cocaine and women.
I am glad that Martin Scorsese didn't became a priest, now he can preach against against human sins in cinema theaters.
Overall it was a good movie with a lot of funny moments.

Din toata tragedia sunt 2 lucruri bune

In urma tragediei aviatice din muntii Apuseni, in care au murit 2 persoane de frig deoarece, autoritatile s-au miscat incet trag 2 lucruri concluzii pozitive:

1.romanii se pot descurca singuri. O mana de sateni si padurarii au gasit ranitii inaintea politiei, inaintea armatei si inaintea serviciilor speciale.
2.daca maine dispare guvernul,parlamentul, partidele nu o vom duce mai rau.Astia oricum nu fac nimic. Chiar ar fi o economie la bugetul de stat. Am putea spune ca suntem anarhici.

Un lucru negativ este ca se incearca politizarea problemei si reglarea conturilor, ca de exemplu demiterea sefului de la STS pentru o greseala a celor de la interne care au trimis oamenii sa caute.
De ce seful inspectoratului de urgenta, nu le-a dat numarul de telefon la cei care coordonau cautarea?
Satele alea nu au sef de post? Nu putea fi trimis sa adune oamenii sa faca o potera?
De ce nu s-a folosit salvamontul.

luni, 13 ianuarie 2014

The hobbit 2 and my desolation

I just watched Hobbit 2 the Desolation of Smaug and I was impressed by special effects, but disappointed by the story.
The dragon Smaug chases 9 gnomes and a hobbit on the castle corridors, throws napalm at them. the lure him to the forge, they fool him to light the forge for them, they cast from gold in record time a 100m tall statue, which melts on the dragon. And at the end the dragon shakes away the gold and flies toward the lake city to destroy it. And the film ends.
It ends just in time to allow the screen players to write another story for another block buster. I saw the same trick on "Hunger games"
So I watched almost 1h of chasing, flame and stone throwing, wall smashing for nothing? Not even a gnome is killed?
Even the gnome with the thigh pierced by an arrow survives, saved by an tall elf woman who's got crush for him.Why? He is short, he is a practically a beggar, a servant of his king without a throne.
And all they have is a brief conversation.
And he is not a good warrior, she must save him all the time.
Maybe she is got some maternal feeling, and in Hobbit 3 she will cast a child with the elf Legolas.

You expect that Gandalf should be an old wise man. But it seems that his magic worthless in face of senility, because he goes to confront an army of orcs alone.
Even the orcs are more retarded. You expect that the savage orcs will kill anyone who stands in their way, but no, they prefer to close their powerful enemy Gandalf in an oubliette.
Just in case we have Hobbit 3 to have someone to fight to, usually the orcs pay their bills by let themselves killed in movies.
Only the elf king seems to have some brain, and tries to outsmart the gnome king.
As a story written by some writers it is worse than a popular fairy tale told by some illiterate peasants.
In Romanian fairy tales when the main character (usually a prince or a peasant) had to face a more powerful opponent (like a dragon) he has to resort to his cleverness. Here you don't have enough brain power to fight Smaug and Sauron.
In this movie some dummy positive characters face some dummy negative characters. The only clever character  is the boater Bard, who in Hobbit 3 will shoot the dragon killer arrow  exactly in place where a scale was damaged by his grand father, when the dragon attacked for the first time the city.

I suggest to the script writers to read more original popular tales, and copy them because they are better than what they have till now.

duminică, 12 ianuarie 2014

What have in common Stalin and Recep Erdogan? Beside moustache and georgian origin

Stalin allied with Zinoviev, Kamenev and Bukharin against Leon Trotsky the commissioner for the Army.
Erdogan,Gullen and secular civil society movement allied to oust the military out of politics.
Stalin afterwards get rid of his allies, a ruled Soviet Union for himself.
Erdogan whet the riot police on the civil society at Ghezi Park protests then tried to cut Gullen movement financial support, by forbidding the cram schools.
This is not just a political move, this a proof of totalitarianism. What right does have a politician to forbid some schools that use the state curricula?
Another proof of his totalitarian thinking is the criticism of 'Soleiman Magnificent' series, just like a communist politician he is proposing punishing of  the deviant artists.
I don't know how to frame his idea of neo-ottomanism: it is similar with Stalin's idea to remake the Tsar empire or  is more similar with Mussolini idea of remaking the Roman empire?

If he want to remake the Ottoman empire, then he doesn't have to do much: he must return to the state of corruption,graft and religious intolerance before Kemal Ataturk.