duminică, 29 martie 2020

The Alps are the new border of UE

The economical situation of Italy was bad before the corona virus crisis. the country is indebted 130%.
Now there are 1000 dead a day, the country is in lock-down, and in Palermo people they to get away from supermarkets without paying.
All the politicians from Salvini to president Matarella are requesting for UE help now.
UE as usual is slow to react, and Germany, Holland  don't want to open unconditionally the purse, but call for the use of European Central Bank fonds: the European Stability Mechanism.
Any contract is based on trust,UE is based on trust that countries wil cooperate.
A failure to Germany to help Italy will destroy the trust and UE.
So Germany in order to restore the faith in UE and silence anti-EU voice as Salvini, must give an humanitarian aid to Italy.
It must not fear of right wing politicians who are against.
German people including the AfD simpatisants, are in general decent people and they help other countries in need.
They were many donations from ordinary people to Romania.
For sure they will understand to help the Italy the country  were they spend their vacations.
The spontaneous support for Italy in German cities (the singing at windows) shows that an humanitarian aid will be favorably seen.
The humanitarian aid is a thing that must be done even with the risk of political career.
But what Angela Merkel risks ? How many times she can be chancellor ?
Anyway she  lost right wing electorate with refugees crisis, now it cannot win them back, with not aiding Italy.

sâmbătă, 21 martie 2020

Decision aid table for politicians during epidemic crisis

Below I made decision matrix for politicians in case of epidemic.
Maybe it will help them take better decisions  and don't do as Boris Johnson did to act as in case#1 when in fact situation is more like in case#2
The case#4 is the chinese case after the declaration of epidemic.
Hard measures can include closing pubs, travel restrictions, fines,city lock down.



No infections Big epidemic
No measures Case#1
Lives lost: 0
Economic loses: 0
Political situation: nothing changed
Case#2
Lives lost: maximum
Economic loses: maximum
Political situation: people will blame you for doing nothing. Civil unrest
Hard measures Case#3
Lives lost:0
Economic loses: big
Political situation: you can claim that your measures saved lives. People will be slighly discontent of you. Maybe they will forget about it at next elections
Case#4
Lives lost: Economic loses: big
Political situation: you can claim that you did your best but nature was strong and people were dumb and didn’t respect order. You can convince people that is the fault of undisciplined personas who disobeyed the rules, and deflect the blame. Public discontent will be lower that in the case 2 and 3

vineri, 20 martie 2020

Who is really important in a society

Now in this corona virus crisis we realised that we are depending on low paid workers:
-nurses
-truck drivers
-janitors
-sales people
-policemen
-delivery people
Now the Wall Street bankers are useless.
Maybe the corona virus crisis will balance the wage difference. Maybe the nurses will be paid more from now on.

luni, 9 martie 2020

You should talk about weather not about sports

The sports news are shinny but are useless. If you champion or your team wins the championship, you don't win anything unless you bet.You don't become a better athlete. You might have a subject to discuss with strangers and socialise.
The weather news are dull, but can make difference between life and death, because you know if an hurricane is approaching or if the weather is cold and you must change tires and take a sweater.
No wonder that all the old people watch the weather with interest and young people who don't fear death and try to socialise watch sports.

sâmbătă, 8 februarie 2020

How China's virus crisis and US political crisis are related

The president of World Health Organisation Tedros Gebreyesus has praised president Xi and China for the measures taken against spread of coronavirus.
Another case in which firemen are praised for their actions but people who prevent fire are ignored.
Now there are 28000 cases of corona virus in China and only 3 in India.
Both are big countries with overcrowded cities.
India has slums that don't exist in China.
India has a temple in which rats are worshiped.
One must expect to have a virus outbreak in India and not in China.
The major difference between China and India is the difference between state controlled media and free media.
A free media hungry for sensational news, sometimes creates hysteria but in cases of a real crisis it informs people in time and allows them to take measures.
The Chinese politician has the luxury to think at his political career before releasing a news.
A politician will think at his career first, at his party second and at the country in thirth place.

Meanwhile in the greatest democracy in the world, president Trump stops money approved by congress to put pressure on Ukraine, a country at war with Russia, to obtain dirt on a political opponent.
In the Senate impeachment process Republican Party tried to limit the evidence against Trump by limiting the number of witnesses, making the process less fair.
And finally the Republican party voted according to party lines except of Mitt Romney.
It seems that the 2 party system in US is collapsing, only the Republicans have the real power and Democrats bark without biting.
The whole impeachment in US is obsolete, a relic of a time when a fraternity of politicians ruled US, and in which the said fraternity could expel you if you broke the rules.
Even Romania has better procedures to impeach the president. Twice president of Romania Basescu was impeached for lesser crimes as Trump and twice was reinstalled as president by popular referendum.
A referendum regarding Trump would be a better solution.
If he won he would shut the mouth of democrats, if he loses the democracy has functioned.
Acquittal in Senate impeachment  is like OJ Simpson acquittal. Legally is correct but  the acquittal didn't brought justice or closure.
In China and in US party interests trump country interests.

China's media censorship on media has brought us the corona virus outbreak, what will bring us Trump acquittal  by republican government ?
According to the latest trend a new mandate for Trump.
Trump doesn't have challengers in Democratic Party, and the economy is ok.
But the economic growth is not a good indicator of the long term viability of the political system.
All the dictators at the beginning of their mandate had good economic results.
Hitler had good economic results when he took power, because he implemented long delayed decision. The plans for autobahn were thought before he took power.
Ceausescu in first years had a good economic growth fuelled by american loans, and second hand western technology.
Saddam Hussein after he took power used oil money for public spending, he build powerlines and highways.
US and China must reform.
The corona virus outbreak might make China more open. If you control all the media even if you say the truth on time you are not believed. Maybe the virus outbreak will convince that is more effective to allow health information freely.
On the other hand US is inching toward and autocracy with a president that puts personal loyalty above else and a subservient republican party who refuses to take a hit for the democracy team, and divided democratic party which discusses gender issues.

joi, 5 decembrie 2019

Unfairness

I have heard at the radio that the last year 1000 people died in psychiatric hospitals in Romania.
In same time till this year it was discussion to release some prisoners from jail because of bad conditions. They were overcrowded and the cells had mold.
But how many prisoners were tied up to the beds, how many were subject to medical experiments ? How many were abused by the personnel?
Some of these prisoners are drug traffickers who overcrowded psychiatric wards with their customers: drug users.
This happens when society is ruled by influence and power and by moral values.
The helpless innocent is kicked in the street and the criminal is compensated by the court for bad time in jail.

marți, 12 noiembrie 2019

Pierderea lui Barna castigul USR

Werner von Braun se bucura cand exploda cate o racheta, spunea ca macar nu a explodat in aer cu oameni in ea si ca a aflat ce nu trebuie sa faca.
Asa trebuie sa faca si USR-u cu racheta Barna, daca se vrea un partid care sa schimbe ceva in politica.
USR-ul ca organizatie trebuie sa se reanalizeze.
Cum organizatia a permis ca un om cu problemele lui Barna sa candideze ?
Motivul pentru care Dragnea a ajuns presedintele PSD si l-a dus in sant, a fost  ca selectia din partid a favorizat oameni ca el, si a defavorizat altii mai corecti si nu aveau instincte dictatoriale.
Oricine poate juca baschet, chiar si oamenii de 1.5m , dar regulile jocului favorizeaza jucatori de 2m si de astia vezi in NBA.
USR trebuie sa-si selectioneze oamenii inainte de a ajunge la putere.
E frumos ca exclud din partid pe oricine condamnat penal, dar fiind un partid mic ei trebuie sa trimita in lupta electorala niste sfinti, pentru a nu fi atacati.
De ce nu a fost o verificare interna ?
De ce nu l-a intrebat nimeni pe Barna:
"Cum puteti fi atacat domnule Barna ?"
"Ati facut afaceri cu fonduri europene ?"
"Ati facut afaceri cu statul ?"
USRul trebuia sa aiba un "avocat al diavolului" care sa-l prinda cu ocaua mica pe candidat, sa-l incurce, sa stabileasca discuti in care sa fie fie acuzat, sa fie chiar jignit.
Soldatii romani se antrenau cu sabii de plumb ca in batalie sabiile normale sa li se para usor de folosit.
O alta greseala a USR-ului a fost ca nu si-a cautat alti alegatori in afara dreptei.
Alegatorii lui Johannis erau impartiti cu Barna, cu ce sa intre Barna in turul 2 ?
Trebuiau cautati alegatori in afara dreptei, de la nedecisi si de la PSD.
Faptul ca s-au bagat in disputa cu referendumul cu casatoria intre persoanele de acelasi gen, a fost o greseala care i-a costat.
Persoanele care nu votau cu PSD, si care considera normal ca doar o femeie si un barbat se pot casatori, au fost pierdute.
Oricum USR-ul atunci a aratat ca poate duce o campanie mizerabila, si mincinoasa daca ii cer interesele.
Singurul care s-a opus implicarii USR in problema casatoriilor homosexuale a fost Nicusor Dan care a fost dat deoparte.
USR-ul imi aminteste de Piata Universitatii, unde o miscare care putea sa schimbe regimul a fost deturnata de sursa "Ioan", alias Marian Munteanu (vezi "Marian Munteanu de la sursa Ioan la liderul  din Piata Universitatii" de Ramona Ursu ediutura Adevarul 2016).
Sau mai clar de exemplul lui Victor Ciorbea, fost prim ministru taranist, actual Avocat al Poporului din parte PSD.
Sper sa nu fie cazul si cu USR, desi organizatiile tinere sunt vulnerabile la infiltrari deoarece au nevoie de oameni.
In aceste context dezvaluirile lui Marius Oprea privind unele persoane din vechiile servicii  din jurul lui Ciolos nu ar trebui ignorate de membrii USR.

O alta greseala:Neintrand la guvernare USR-ul a pierdut sansa de a capata experienta si a arata ce poate.
Putea de exemplu cere ministerul mediului si incepe oprirea defrisarilor,care le-ar fi adus voturile ecologistilor.

Dar au jucat prudent si probabil s-au temut pe buna dreptate de eroziunea guvernarii si inghitirea de PNL.

Totusi Uniunea SALVATI Romania este gata sa faca orice pentru a salva romania, chiar sa piarda alegerile,nu ?
 Ei vor sa faca alta politica  in interesul oamenilor nu al politicienilor.
De ce au renuntat la crezul lor si au inceput calculul politic ?

S-a lansat acum si zvonul ca PNL a sabotat USR ca sa iasa Johanis cu Dancila in turul 2.
Am auzit unii membrii USR ca vor prefera sa voteze cu Dancila de a dracului.
E o prostie din urmatoarele puncte de vedere:

1. Trebuie sa votezi guvernul, daca tu  si tara ati dus-o mai bine, indiferent de jocurile politice. Votantii USR nu sunt multumiti de starea actuala altfel ar fi votat-o pe Dancila.

2. Nu stim daca e adevarat. Vorba lui Ilie Moromete "Pe ce te bazezi?"

3.Se disperseaza voturile anti-PSD intr-un moment crucial.La o prezenta de vot scazuta si cu voturile USR impartite ne trezim cu Viorica Dancila presedinte.
PSD-ul stie foarte bine sa-si dezbine adversarii si sa intarate oamenii. Ultima chestie pe care am auzit-o "Nu trebuie sa-l votam pe Johanis ca va acapara toata puterea".
Dreapta l-a avut bau bau pe Dragnea, stanga l-a avut ca bau bau pe Johannis.

Unii din USR dau vina pe sistem ca nu au castigat. Ultima oara cand am auzit asta a fost cand Vadim Tudor a pierdut prezidentialele.
Cu "mentalitatea toti sunt impotriva noastra" si cu un electorat din ce ince mai ingust si mai radical, USR-ul poate lua usor drumul Partidului Romania Mare.Va fi un partid extremist ciudat: foarte filo-european, cu oameni educati si liberali.
Sper ca USR sa isi regaseasca directia si sa forteze celalate partide sa joace corect, si sa nu devina o scara pentru parveniti.