Obama wanted to shift the military and political effort from Middle East to Pacific Ocean where China is growing stronger.
The Syrian civil war is a opportunity for China to keep busy USA with Middle East, so China will veto against a ONU resolution for military intervention in Syria, leaving USA alone to carry the burden of stabilizing the region.And this burden can be high for a US strained economy.
Russia is reluctant to see its influence shrinking, so will do anything possible to support Assad regime.
Any weak empire will use violence to maintain its prestige, France conquered Algeria in 19 century after it lost it's European empire, Spain tried to conquer Morocco after it lost the last colonies of Cuba,Puerto Rico and Philipines, Portugal entered in a colonial war in Angola.
Russia entered in a bloody war Chechnya, and invaded Georgia.
I wonder how Russia will react if Turkey will forbid the crossing of its airspace for Russian planes.
As we have seen in Spanish civil war, the side that is more united and it has better supply lines wins.
The republicans in Spain have lost because they were cut off from Soviet supply and because they were fighting one each other. And they fought one each other because a radical fraction of communist was supported by their main supplier of arms and ammunition, Soviet Union.
In Syria the rebels can be supplied easily by land from Turkey,Iraq and Jordan, all countries allied with US.
The Assad regime can be supplied only by sea and air, from Russia and from Iran.A long and costly route that can be shut down easily.
If US declares war to Syria it can stop the flow of ammunition by sea using its navy, and can install anti aircraft missiles in Northern Iraq, (at the request of the Iraq government of course).
The naval embargo it is an effective measure that can be done without Congress approval, and for an air embargo is necessary the cooperation of Turkey and of Iraq.
But the rebels have a problem: they have different reasons for fighting Assad, and some of them are radicals as Muslim brotherhood.And if these radicals win an influence in opposition forces, they will lose the support of population which is tolerant regarding religion.
The Syrian civil war is a opportunity for China to keep busy USA with Middle East, so China will veto against a ONU resolution for military intervention in Syria, leaving USA alone to carry the burden of stabilizing the region.And this burden can be high for a US strained economy.
Russia is reluctant to see its influence shrinking, so will do anything possible to support Assad regime.
Any weak empire will use violence to maintain its prestige, France conquered Algeria in 19 century after it lost it's European empire, Spain tried to conquer Morocco after it lost the last colonies of Cuba,Puerto Rico and Philipines, Portugal entered in a colonial war in Angola.
Russia entered in a bloody war Chechnya, and invaded Georgia.
I wonder how Russia will react if Turkey will forbid the crossing of its airspace for Russian planes.
As we have seen in Spanish civil war, the side that is more united and it has better supply lines wins.
The republicans in Spain have lost because they were cut off from Soviet supply and because they were fighting one each other. And they fought one each other because a radical fraction of communist was supported by their main supplier of arms and ammunition, Soviet Union.
In Syria the rebels can be supplied easily by land from Turkey,Iraq and Jordan, all countries allied with US.
The Assad regime can be supplied only by sea and air, from Russia and from Iran.A long and costly route that can be shut down easily.
If US declares war to Syria it can stop the flow of ammunition by sea using its navy, and can install anti aircraft missiles in Northern Iraq, (at the request of the Iraq government of course).
The naval embargo it is an effective measure that can be done without Congress approval, and for an air embargo is necessary the cooperation of Turkey and of Iraq.
But the rebels have a problem: they have different reasons for fighting Assad, and some of them are radicals as Muslim brotherhood.And if these radicals win an influence in opposition forces, they will lose the support of population which is tolerant regarding religion.
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