Smart tactic, stupid strategy

Who lives in Eastern Europe it is not surprised at all about Putin intention to occupy Ukraine, but many US analysts are surprised, they expected that Putin should behave rationally,and to gain ground in Crimea via political pressure and diplomacy . They consider him a smart person who cannot make such a blunder.
But let's analyze another smart man who made a big mistake: Osama bin Laden.
He was smart, you cannot be stupid if you organize a terrorist network the size  of Al-Quida and plot the 11 September attacks. But the idea to attack US and wake the sleeping giant, was not a good one, and Al-Quida received blow after blow and finally bin Laden was killed.
So Osama was smart in applying the tactics, but was a weak strategist and attacked at the wrong time at the wrong place.
The politics in US is ruled by the public opinion, which demands what it is told to via media channels.
Usually the US public opinion doesn't care about Afghanistan, Somalia or other country, but September 11 attacks  made them care, and request a strong response.I don't think any president would have survived politically without doing something after the September 11.
The other mistake, was that US is a young nation, who knew only success in foreign politics till now, and doesn't accept failure. The 11 September attacks were a failure and a shame for US  and public opinion demanded a decisive action to be taken, to restore the status and the pride of US, so they went after Osama.
The attacks from Madrid Atocha Railroad station from 2004 didn't determine the same response from public opinion, because Spain it is a nation in decline, it has lost its empire and desire for expansion, it has no status to defend.
An the third mistake that Osama has been made, it is that attacked during the presidency of a republican.
National Rifle Association and christian churches vote republican, and these people are not alianated by a war against arabs.
The forth mistake of bin Laden it is his narrow and strong religious beliefs, who limited his thinking and options.Maybe he had fanatic followers but he has lost a lot of Muslim allies.

Now let's see what mistakes Putin has done:
He comes from KGB, it respect black ops,order and discipline, but a strong army must have a strong economy. A strong economy produced diverse things to cover a wide variety of needs.
To produce a great variety of needs you need diverse economic agents and diverse technologies.
An army needs gun,fuel, but also bread,socks, clothes. And for having bread you need fertilizers,tractors and so on.
The quality of civilian industry is very important for an army.
For example:
During the world war a British toy factory was converted in an arms factory that produced Sten gun, this meant that it produced cheap and good, an it was forced to do so by the years of market competition.
In the same war, US supplied armament for 2 fronts and for Soviet Union, who cannot produced trucks,cans and other goods, this because it had a diverse economy.
Putin thinks if we has a grip on the resources, and his security forces crush any dissidents, he will have the liberty to do what he wants abroad.
Concentrating power in his hands and his cronies he didn't allowed the diversity to emerge and to offer an alternative to a resource based economy.And with a few undifferentiated resources he can be easily be embargoed. Maybe Germany won't sell VW in Russia. It can sell elsewhere with same success because it has few competitors.
Cuban cigars are sold despite the embargo because they can differentiate. They cannot be easily replaced.
Can you tell me the difference between gas from Qatar and from Russia?
Putin was good at tactic.He timed his invasion well, Soci Olympics distracted  the world outside the Eastern Europe, the US was busy with China expansion near Philippines, Ukraine is in disarray,Europeans are some sissies that want cheap gas and contracts with Russia, also at White House you have a weak president, who tries to reduce military costs, because some greedy bankers wasted some trillion dollars.
Maybe Europeans are some sissies, but they are traumatized by wold war 2, and nobody wants to see another one. Especially East Europeans, who endured Russian occupation for more than 50 years.
UE is used with soft power and and brutal actions of Russia reignited their fear,and now will take more concentrating actions.Till now the focus of EU politics was inside, now it will be outside.
Fear can be a strong motivation to put aside quarrels and cooperate.
The biggest mistake of Putin is that he lives in past, and like Osama bin Laden is so brainwashed that he cannot acknowledge, that the system was wrong and crumbled by internal causes.
To understand him rationally you must understand his irrationality.