I was wondering why the US didn't dispatch the 6-th fleet from Mediterranean into Black sea, to show Russian that it is ready to reinforce the Budapest treaty, which guaranteed the integrity of Ukraine.
The reason is simple: it can't cross the Bosporus strait . According to the Montreux convention the countries which don't have sea shore to Black sea cannot pass through Bosphorus strait a ship with a displacement greater than 15000 tonnes and cannot keep more than 30000 tonnes in Black sea.
The carrier USS George H. Bush has 51000 tonnes, and it is very tricky to cross with an air carrier through a narrow strait.By accident a ship can collide and 6 billion carrier can remain stuck in Bosphorus strait, while the Syrian coast is unguarded.
So United States cannot use their naval force into Black sea, and neither the British. (The Ukraine made a bad deal when they choose these naval powers a guarantors for it independence).
The only forces in the Black sea are Russia with their aged fleet and Turkey with a more modern fleet.
But Turkey approach Putin recently for some energy deals, and the relations between EU and Turkey are low,Erdogan has internal problems so it doesn't want to be involved.
UE need gas and oil, the countries from Central Asia have both, but don't want to sell to Russia for petty cash, they want to sell it to Europeans or Chinese for hard cash.
The only route to transport hydrocarbons that avoids Russia is through Azerbaijan,Georgia and Turkey.
If Russia will get its hands on Georgia it will grab EU by the balls. It will dictate the terms. The whole Europe will be ruled by Kremlin via energy corporations. This is the reason why Putin wanted the Mistral landing ships. Search for a pretext and occupy Georgia, from sea.
Another power that will be happy if the Europeans will be chased away from Central Asia is China. It will be less bidding for gas and oil.
Taking Crimea, Putin has deprived Europe from another source of off shore gas and oil, and US must spread now military resources in 3 crisis China in west Pacific, Syria and Black sea.
For Putin rebuilding URSS matters, but controlling sources of energy, and squeezing money from EU matters more.
So I think that current troubles in Harkiv are a decoy, the West will fight to keep the Ukraine intact while Putin will extend his control over Black Sea and it's energy resources.
If Putin's main target is oil and gas will he try to disrupt Romania's offshore hydrocarbon sources?
Romania is a NATO member state, and direct approach cannot be used.
Russia can use the Transnistrean republic to create tension and determine Bucharest to help Moldova and attack Tiraspol, then Russia, will attack Romania and conquer Snake Island and take away the oil and gas deposits.Article 5 applies when a country is attacked not when it attacks, so it will be another excuse for US not to do anything, while Russia grabs Black sea.
What it is clear is that Romanian navy needs an upgrade.The oil companies from Black sea should make a donation, after all Romania is defending their interests.
I heard that France has 2 Mistral ships in construction, maybe they sold to us instead of Russians.
The reason is simple: it can't cross the Bosporus strait . According to the Montreux convention the countries which don't have sea shore to Black sea cannot pass through Bosphorus strait a ship with a displacement greater than 15000 tonnes and cannot keep more than 30000 tonnes in Black sea.
The carrier USS George H. Bush has 51000 tonnes, and it is very tricky to cross with an air carrier through a narrow strait.By accident a ship can collide and 6 billion carrier can remain stuck in Bosphorus strait, while the Syrian coast is unguarded.
So United States cannot use their naval force into Black sea, and neither the British. (The Ukraine made a bad deal when they choose these naval powers a guarantors for it independence).
The only forces in the Black sea are Russia with their aged fleet and Turkey with a more modern fleet.
But Turkey approach Putin recently for some energy deals, and the relations between EU and Turkey are low,Erdogan has internal problems so it doesn't want to be involved.
UE need gas and oil, the countries from Central Asia have both, but don't want to sell to Russia for petty cash, they want to sell it to Europeans or Chinese for hard cash.
The only route to transport hydrocarbons that avoids Russia is through Azerbaijan,Georgia and Turkey.
If Russia will get its hands on Georgia it will grab EU by the balls. It will dictate the terms. The whole Europe will be ruled by Kremlin via energy corporations. This is the reason why Putin wanted the Mistral landing ships. Search for a pretext and occupy Georgia, from sea.
Another power that will be happy if the Europeans will be chased away from Central Asia is China. It will be less bidding for gas and oil.
Taking Crimea, Putin has deprived Europe from another source of off shore gas and oil, and US must spread now military resources in 3 crisis China in west Pacific, Syria and Black sea.
For Putin rebuilding URSS matters, but controlling sources of energy, and squeezing money from EU matters more.
So I think that current troubles in Harkiv are a decoy, the West will fight to keep the Ukraine intact while Putin will extend his control over Black Sea and it's energy resources.
If Putin's main target is oil and gas will he try to disrupt Romania's offshore hydrocarbon sources?
Romania is a NATO member state, and direct approach cannot be used.
Russia can use the Transnistrean republic to create tension and determine Bucharest to help Moldova and attack Tiraspol, then Russia, will attack Romania and conquer Snake Island and take away the oil and gas deposits.Article 5 applies when a country is attacked not when it attacks, so it will be another excuse for US not to do anything, while Russia grabs Black sea.
What it is clear is that Romanian navy needs an upgrade.The oil companies from Black sea should make a donation, after all Romania is defending their interests.
I heard that France has 2 Mistral ships in construction, maybe they sold to us instead of Russians.
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