I have read the Jean Claude Juncker speech and I must say that I am glad that someone stirred some debate in the European countries.
This speech made me think about decisions,globalisation,speed and stability.
The cheap transports made the globalisation possible and world much more instable.
The systems to be stable they must have a negative feedback loop, for example in order that a car to stay on the road, it must have a driver to look a the road and to turn the wheel.
But if we have a delay in this feedback loop, driver reacts too slow for example, at high speeds the system (car) will become unstable, because the driver will try to overcompensate. The only solution is to drive slower.
But the international competition doesn't allow you to drive slower.
A good example of instability created by delayed feedback is the Iran SUA relation.
USA overthrow Iranian prime minister Mossadegh in 1953, replacing him with the Shah. Shah was overthrown by Islamic revolution in 1979, and the Iranian-US relations are sour since then.
Between cause and effect was a delay of 26 years.
If the delay was shorter, let's say that Iranians somehow would punish USA for overthrowing Mossadegh, the USA wouldn't overthrow the democratic elect Iranian government and would start a negotiation about oil reserves in 1953 not about the nuclear program of Iran in 2016.
Another example is from nature: the trees give oxygen,regulate weather and fix soil.
If we cut 1 tree nothing happens because we have a buffer, the rest of the trees produce enough oxygen and drain enough water.
We cut 1000 trees, nothing happens, we get money and we develop a forestry industry and we cut trees for decades without something to happen.
Till one day the soil starts eroding, we have flood and droughts.Now we have a feedback that is telling us that we should stop cutting trees. Too late.
The best example of instable situation kept stable by a good and fast feedback is the nuclear threat during Cold War: if one side launched missiles the other would do the same.
The feedback was very fast in few hours after you pressed the button you received the feedback in the form of enemy nuclear missiles.This made th e rulers think twice.
What would happen if we would have the same feedback for damaging the environment? What if when we spill chemical wastes on a field we would lose our crop and die of hunger?
This type of feedback we have it before the railroads, the local communities survived with the local agricultural products. Then and now in poor rural communities from Romania, people take more care about their land.
Coincidently, now the demand for local products rose with the awareness of the environment impact. Maybe, we as a society we organize our self to be stable.
Maybe the fact that we have in the world long feedback loops with delays, which determine instability, determines an isolationism in some countries such as USA and UK.
What the Europe shall do?
First define which feedback loops have delays.And decide where to act and where to give freedom to national governments.
For example: unemployment in Romania it is a long feedback loop for Bruxelles: it must gather data, discuss within among other issues, then implement some measures to be carried out by local authorities.
The feedback loop between national government it is faster, the collection of data is faster, the interest is immediate and te measures can be implemented faster.
So the national government should replace the EU commission, and EU to be only a trade agreement?
Not at all. There are some issues, like defense and foreign policy where the national government might react slow
For example: Russia attacks Finland, and the French government should take a position.
Finland is far from France and it is not of interest, second France has some special relation with Russia (see armament deals), why should they bother?
Till the situation becomes worse for France, the situation will become worse for Finland and for members of EU from the Baltic Sea.
An supra national organization like EU, or NATO, will feel threaten faster because its border is at the Baltic sea not at the Rhine, and it will react faster.
In my opinion that EU should do few things but well, for more countries.
A 2 speed EU will drive to disintegration of EU due to economic polarization.
EU could become a supranational state with economic discriminations between its citizens.
Habsburgic empire was a supra national state with discrimination between nationalities and it collapsed after WW1, when the nations didn't want to fight for it.
The only multinational state that is working is Switzerland.
Switzerland started as treaty between cantons with equal rights, and the first topics that they agree were extradition of criminals,freedom of trade and common defence.
Let's learn from swiss modesty and start small.
This speech made me think about decisions,globalisation,speed and stability.
The cheap transports made the globalisation possible and world much more instable.
The systems to be stable they must have a negative feedback loop, for example in order that a car to stay on the road, it must have a driver to look a the road and to turn the wheel.
But if we have a delay in this feedback loop, driver reacts too slow for example, at high speeds the system (car) will become unstable, because the driver will try to overcompensate. The only solution is to drive slower.
But the international competition doesn't allow you to drive slower.
A good example of instability created by delayed feedback is the Iran SUA relation.
USA overthrow Iranian prime minister Mossadegh in 1953, replacing him with the Shah. Shah was overthrown by Islamic revolution in 1979, and the Iranian-US relations are sour since then.
Between cause and effect was a delay of 26 years.
If the delay was shorter, let's say that Iranians somehow would punish USA for overthrowing Mossadegh, the USA wouldn't overthrow the democratic elect Iranian government and would start a negotiation about oil reserves in 1953 not about the nuclear program of Iran in 2016.
Another example is from nature: the trees give oxygen,regulate weather and fix soil.
If we cut 1 tree nothing happens because we have a buffer, the rest of the trees produce enough oxygen and drain enough water.
We cut 1000 trees, nothing happens, we get money and we develop a forestry industry and we cut trees for decades without something to happen.
Till one day the soil starts eroding, we have flood and droughts.Now we have a feedback that is telling us that we should stop cutting trees. Too late.
The best example of instable situation kept stable by a good and fast feedback is the nuclear threat during Cold War: if one side launched missiles the other would do the same.
The feedback was very fast in few hours after you pressed the button you received the feedback in the form of enemy nuclear missiles.This made th e rulers think twice.
What would happen if we would have the same feedback for damaging the environment? What if when we spill chemical wastes on a field we would lose our crop and die of hunger?
This type of feedback we have it before the railroads, the local communities survived with the local agricultural products. Then and now in poor rural communities from Romania, people take more care about their land.
Coincidently, now the demand for local products rose with the awareness of the environment impact. Maybe, we as a society we organize our self to be stable.
Maybe the fact that we have in the world long feedback loops with delays, which determine instability, determines an isolationism in some countries such as USA and UK.
What the Europe shall do?
First define which feedback loops have delays.And decide where to act and where to give freedom to national governments.
For example: unemployment in Romania it is a long feedback loop for Bruxelles: it must gather data, discuss within among other issues, then implement some measures to be carried out by local authorities.
The feedback loop between national government it is faster, the collection of data is faster, the interest is immediate and te measures can be implemented faster.
So the national government should replace the EU commission, and EU to be only a trade agreement?
Not at all. There are some issues, like defense and foreign policy where the national government might react slow
For example: Russia attacks Finland, and the French government should take a position.
Finland is far from France and it is not of interest, second France has some special relation with Russia (see armament deals), why should they bother?
Till the situation becomes worse for France, the situation will become worse for Finland and for members of EU from the Baltic Sea.
An supra national organization like EU, or NATO, will feel threaten faster because its border is at the Baltic sea not at the Rhine, and it will react faster.
In my opinion that EU should do few things but well, for more countries.
A 2 speed EU will drive to disintegration of EU due to economic polarization.
EU could become a supranational state with economic discriminations between its citizens.
Habsburgic empire was a supra national state with discrimination between nationalities and it collapsed after WW1, when the nations didn't want to fight for it.
The only multinational state that is working is Switzerland.
Switzerland started as treaty between cantons with equal rights, and the first topics that they agree were extradition of criminals,freedom of trade and common defence.
Let's learn from swiss modesty and start small.
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