2016 elections in US: First, do not harm

Bill O'Reilly said at Steven Colbert show that Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are the same, they represent the angry Americans.
Maybe they represent the angry Americans but their approach to solving the US problems is different.
Bernie Sanders represents the left political current influenced by what is happening in Europe. It is a current that favour collectivity than individualism.
Donald Trump would represent the individualistic America, in which you have to defend you own interests with little regard to others.

The Republican Party are attacking Bernie Sanders view as unamerican. But why it is colective action seen as unamerican? After all the American Revolution and all the wars, except Vietnam were a collective action.
In nature when a group of social animals are under threat they cooperate, when they are safe, they compete.
US is separated by 2 oceans by the rest of the world, and has 2 weak neighbours and it was seldom under direct threat, and this favoured competition.

In contrast the European countries were always on the threat of their powerful, neighbours, so they had to utilise at maximum they human resources.
The high education was created in Europe by the state to have functionaries,engineers and military personal that were needed.
The free education was used to promote ideas of common origin and common language among different men coming from different provinces.

I think, now US feels more on the pressure from other countries, and it must shift from an individualistic ideology to a more collective one.
After the Word War 2 it was the only industrialized nation that wasn't destroyed, so few years they were number 1 producer of good in the world. But now China is producing 30% of the goods from the world.
The dollar was the worlds preferred currency, till euro appeared.
USA still has a powerful military but it expensive maintain it and more expensive to use it.

The US poor classes feel the pressure of globalisation and emigration.
If some is born in a poor family in US it doesn't has the hopes of an East European, an Indian or of a Chinese to go to college, to work hard and to land in a good job, and to help the family in this way.

He must go to work. But were?
The manufacturing was moved to China. The services were taken by Indians. The agriculture is made by Hispanics.

What a president can do about it?

Let's suppose that a Mexico-USA border wall will be built and all illegal emigrants will be sent home. Who will pick the produce for low wages? None, the fields will be fallow, the farmers bankrupt, and the US will have to import the produce that till now was produced in the country.
Ok, let's suppose that the Americans are ready to pay more for vegetables in order to sustain their economy.
Service industry: how you can stop companies using customer care centers in Indian, when for 1000$ you can hire 3 college graduates? You cut off  the communication with India?
The US government cannot stop companies to bring foreigners to work in US with temporary visa and they want to shut off all the calls with India?

And companies will be more competitive globally because they will use more expensive American workforce while other companies will use cheaper workforce from India?

How can a president stop China from selling cheap goods in US?
They will make an embargo?
China will sell in Mexico and then the merchandise will be sold in US.
And not all Chinese products are bad, if you want a cheap electronic device, China is the place to go.

To find a cure to these problems a collective approach is necessary.
The ancients said about cures: "prima non nocere" - first, do not harm.
I think that Bernie Sanders is less harmful:
Ok, maybe the budget will be in deficit, but some kids will be in college and some people will have health care.
Donald  Trump is more harmful,because he can ruin international relations. Already he has lost some business partners due to his anti-muslim stances.
His anti-hispanic rant will alienate the South America.
And his stance against China will make things worse. Let's suppose that he "convince" Chinese president to step back from Asia, and to accept some unfavourable economic treaties. How the chinese president will save face and make Chinese accept these unfavourable treaties if Trump brags about humiliating China?
If the chinese president had to enforce the treaties it he will lose his function and a more anti-american president will rule China, and maybe the things will escalate to a war in SE Asia.
If it doesn't then he will defy USA and Trump will have to enforce the treaties, using military force if necessary.
His domestic economic plan seems good on paper, but I am afraid of his attitude: America is rule by idiots, they need me to tell them what to do.
All the dictators started like this: Mussolini,Hitler,Stalin,Sadam Hussein and Ceausescu.
The started very energetically, the obtained a short term success,  they gained confidence and they thought that they are smarter than average and started to rule personally, and they lead the country to the disaster.

The universe is playing Russian roulette with us

Russian roulette is a game of chance, in which a bullet is put in a revolver, then the cylinder is spinned, the muzzle is put against the head and the trigger is pulled. 

You have 1/6 chances to die.The same is happening in life: when you cross the street, it is x% chance to be hit by a car, when you fly a plane it is y% chance to crash, when you go to a terrace in Paris it is z% chance to be shot. I don't count here millions of deadly viruses,bacteria's,diseases,radiations,chemicals,human killers that could end our life.
We live our lives by ignoring this. It is like universe is playing Russian roulette behind our back and we are not aware.
Sometimes, life makes us to turn around and face the revolver pointed at us with cylinder spinning.
Then we are scared  because of uncertainty: we will have x% chances to live and (100-x)% to die.
It is like facing a guy with a weapon in the hand or a wild beast preparing to charge.
Our fight or flight system is torn apart by the conflicting decisions.
If they attack  you will focus on defending yourself and forget about fear, but they wait, and you are uncertain and tense.
We don't like uncertainty and because of that we used gods as explanation when we didn't understood natural phenomena.
Uncertainty produces fear, and because of that we ignore it or we search any explanation plausible.

1984 and France

I have seen the Manuel Valls interview. He said that emergency state should continue till Daesh is finished.But how do we know that is finished?
US sent Japanese nationals in camps in World War 2, till the Japan capitulated. After that they were sent home.
Valls can keep his extraordinary powers forever, because Daesh is a phantom state that it will never capitulate.
The situation will be like in George Orwells novel '1984' in which the state Oceania is forever at war with Euroasia, and from time to time rockets hit proletarian neighbourhoods to keep the state of fear.All to remind people that Big Brother is their protector, and they mus support the state.
The current situation is similar with the period of Weimar Republic before the rise of Hitler in Germany.
In 1930 German president Hindenburg appointed Henrich Bruning as Cancelor
Bruning governed using presidents special emergency powers, bypassing the Parliament.
He tried to solve economic problems with these new powers, but he failed.
As result Nazi' s gained 37% of places in Parliament and Hitler was chosen as Cancelor with extended powers which he used to gain the absolute power.
Manuel Valls wants more extraordinary powers to fight terrorism.
If  Front National wins the elections they could have prime minister with extended powers.
How they will use it?
All attackers from Paris were Muslim but not all the Muslims from France are terrorists, or they supporting terrorists, but they can be discriminated in getting jobs. I don't think that Front National will concern with that. And in few years France could have a more polarised population if Front National wins.
The conflicts between Arabs and French  can keep Front National in power for a long time.
Maybe the EU will sanction more often the French government for human rights abuse.
Maybe one day a France  will decide that it had enough interference from Bruxelles and will exit from EU.
With UK and France out of Union, the main power in EU will be Germany.
What France needs now it is a reform in its institutions, and its political class.
Unknown to us, besides rioting of arabs, there were rioting of french gipsies who blocked roads,rail and burned cars in Moirans.This shows a lack of respect of the law caused by the government inefficiency, I don't think that this will be solved in 3 months during the emergency state.
Socialist party criticized Sarkozy for the fact that the police didn't stopped a young muslim to kill 5 kids. If they would find a common ground to solve then the terrorism problem we would not have the 2015 attacks.
Strange now the socialist government has 2 major attacks in a year with 160 deaths and nobody is requesting resignation of ministry of interior and of the Valls government. Maybe opposition knows that situation is serious and they cannot solve it.

Funny note: M. Valls was asked by reporter if the Schengen treaty will die. He responded "Schengen treaty will not die, but EU can die" If EU will die Schengen treaty cannot survive.

Private versus public

In politics and in media it is a ragging battle between a religious, anti abortion camp and politically correct, pro gay marriage , pro LGBT camp.
Putting aside the fact that this conflict is exacerbated to deviate the public attention from the real problems, I think that this conflict it is between what we believe it is public and what is private.
The religious camp think that the woman's uterus is public domain and society must have a saying if a woman can give birth to a child or not.
The pro gay marriage camp thinks that we all must acknowledge the sexual deviations of some citizens, and we must guarantee to every body the right to have a family.  The sexual behaviour is of  private sphere and should not interest of the public. Even the most savage tribesmen, people who are naked all the time, are doing sex in private. Why we should acknowledge that Harry and James are making sex? We acknowledge that Mary and James are making sex because Tom must know that Mary's uterus reserved for James, and he should not leave some spermatozoa there otherwise he will be punished. James will not support Mary in raising the children if they are Tom's.
Marriage brings order in society. You know what children you have to raise, and as a parent you are obliged to give them material support.
If in a marriage cannot result children, the marriage is useless.
The gay marriage is a nonsense,even a couple as the Virgin Mary and Jacob, by the grace of God they had a children.
The gay marriage is a invasion of the public sphere by the private sphere.
I don't understand why we as a majority we must conform to a minority when it is not in our interest.
Why we should change our legal system to solve the private matters of John and Harry?
Why it is of public interest to know if John and Harry have sex?
In order to solve this conflict once for all we must define boundaries of private and public.
This is difficult because it is depending on society. The East Asia cultures are more collective and the private sphere is small, while the North European cultures are individualistic and they cherish their intimacy and private sphere.
Now the boundary of private is shrinking but more and more people are sensitive to share information, so in the future it will be cool not to be on Facebook.

PR-ul patriarhiei

Azi dupa stirile de pe TVR1 s-au prezentat faptele bune ale Bisericii Ortodoxe. S-au prezentat lucrarile facute de episcopul Banatului, apoi au intervievat un preot din Sibiu purtator de cuvant al Patriarhiei. Acesta a inceput sa spuna de faptele bune pe care le fac, a spus ca guvernul a inchis 50 de spitale dar biserica a deschis 40. A spus ca toate afacerile Bisericii Ortodoxe sunt conduse de firme care platesc taxe la stat. Si ca ar fi gata sa plateasca taxe la stat si pentru serviciile prestate, gen inmormantari si nunti, si atunci nu ar mai putea sa   presteze unele servicii gratis.
As vrea sa cred toate astea daca un cunoscut de al meu nu i s-ar fi spus pe fata ca trebui sa dea spaga cateva zeci de mii de euro pentru o parohie, asta cand inalt preaferictule Daniel era episcop al Modlovei si Bucovinei.
Stiind realitatea  mi se pare ca faptele bune ale unor adevarati slujitori ai Domnului sunt confiscate de o sleahta de profitori pentru a-si face reclama.
Apropo spitalele bisericii cer bani pentru servicii si functioneaza ca niste societati comerciale.
De fapt a cui este patrimoniul bisericii? Daca este al enoriasilor? Enoriasii nu au dreptul la un raport financiar sa vada ce si cum?

France at war

In Romania now the old ladies are speaking about Muslim terrorism. It is a sign that we are in deep shit.
Cristian Tudor Popescu a Romanian journalist said that we are in World War 3 because ISIS has declared war to the world.
The war has began in already in Europe, but it is more  like a guerilla warfare.
If the classical guerilla warfare is war of local population against invaders, in France we have invaders who use guerilla warfare against the population and the state.
The irregular forces are sustained by the local population, or/and by the external power. But without support of local population we cannot have irregular forces, because they need intelligence, they need recruits and food.
The guerilla has 2 parts, the overt operation and the covert operation.
The overt operation are those who push the trigger, the covert part is assured by those who gather informations, gather supply, recruit and promote their ideology.
Because of the conditions in Europe, the part of overt guerilla is missing, till the terrorist act is carried out.
Another characteristic of this Muslim guerilla is the fact that  they are concentrated in cities where they can organize riots as in France 2006.
The French intelligence failed because they didn't disrupt the supply with weapons and explosives for terrorists from this covert guerilla.If you can't track 4000 terror suspects then focus on arms and explosives.
The state security begins with the police officer patrolling the street, who can limit the effectiveness of criminal gangs. Less effective criminal gangs less likely to transport AKM and bullets.

The guerilla tactic was expressed by Mao Tze Dung in the following phrase:
"If you are attacked, run, if the enemy stops, harass, if the enemy runs attack".
So the only option against a guerilla is to attack it continually. The decision of Hollande to attack ISIS is Syria was good.
Against irregular forces all the actions must be coordinated from a single point, so I would expect that in European democracies influence of the information services,police and the army increase, and the power to be more centralized.

Fragmented borders help terrorists to find refuge in other countries, so I expect that countries either will increase their border control, renouncing to Schengen agreement or they will unify their police forces. The easiest solution is border control.
Patrolling of the soldiers on the streets will be the norm in France.

I wonder if it will be used more radical methods against this guerilla warfare:
-search and seizure in the houses of the population supporting the guerilla, to confiscate arms and to intimidate people
-population displacement
-creating paramilitary forces from the civilians. I am not supporter of giving guns to people, but when you have many attacks and you cannot be everywhere, every time and you cannot prevent all the attacks, it makes sense to train and arm civilians. They are there and they will react faster, reducing the casualties.You transform them from victims to heroes.

If the French government cannot control the situation then the people will become more xenophobic and fascist, and the socialist will lose.
So in order for Hollande to stay in power he must become more oriented to the right.

Masele si puterea #colectiv

La moartea lui Cezar, Marc Antoniu si Octavian au folosit masele indurerate, pentru le coaliza impotriva lui  Brutus, si al alunga din Roma.
Similar in 2015 in noiembrie forte politice necunoscute se folosesc de moartea tinerilor pentru a dizloca de la putere persoane mai urate decat Brutus.
Elias Canetti in cartea sa "Masele si puterea" spunea ca mai intai se formeaza un alai de plangere, apoi se creaza o multime in actiune. Iar cand oamenii se aduna vor sa faca ceva, este o anumita stare de asteptare.
Faptul ca sistemul  i-a sacrificat pe Ponta,Oprea,Popescu-Piedone a fost o miscare inteligenta si de bun simt, dar nu cred ca e de ajuns.
Toate partidele au ajuns la guvernare pentru a-si demonstra incompetenta.
Niste alegeri anticipate acum, i-ar avantaja pe cei pregatiti sa ia puterea, PNL si cine mai agita apele in strada. La Revolutie s-a intamplat ceva similar, tinerii l-au dat jos pe Ceausescu si politrucii lui Iliescu, care se pregateau de ani de zile, au insfacat puterea.
Nu vreau ca din siajul revoltei populare sa mai apara alti "emanati"
Cred ca niste alegeri la timpul lor, ar da timp societatii civile sa se organizeze, iar partidelor sa se reformeze, sa mai impinga in spate pe un urmarit penal. (Ma gandesc la tine PSD)
Pana la alegeri s-ar putea reforma sistemul electoral si s-ar reduce numarul de parlamentari, astfel incat sa avem un parlament curat si uscat.