Russia will be the next Yugoslavia?

A communist multiethnic federation breaks up.
Some authoritarian president wants to patch his state, but he cannot overtly use force, so instead he supports with training, guns and men creation of paramilitary forces in claimed territory.
These paramilitary soldiers are pawn of this psychopathic president who publicly denies any involvement and urges for peace. The relations between the paramilitary and secret services of president states are always at low level, without any written orders.
Finally the paramilitary makes a mistake and enrages the public community, and the president distance himself from  paramilitary leaving them to pay the bill.
This happened in Yugoslavia 20 years ago and the president was Milosevic, and the incident was Srebrenica_massacre but the situation is similar  with what is happening now in Ukraine.
Then and now the West was slow to react, and violence spread. Then West supported Slovenian,Croats and some muslims, Russia and China supported the communist Milosevic and Serbian side, Saudi Arabia supported the radical Muslims.
Now West supports the Ukrainian government, the Islamic states support the Muslims and Russia supports the separatists from eastern Ukraine.
It seems that it is the same play,almost the same actors but the ending could be different now.

What will happen next?
First of all the Ukrainian crisis is global, it is not longer regional, before shooting of the plane, if you lived in Australia,Malaysia or even Holland, you could care less about fighting in Donetsk.
These affected countries need to retaliate, in order to maintain their internal cohesion. The frustration must be vent up through aggression towards the culprit. And the culprit is Russia, even they didn't ordered the shooting of the plane.
Australia cannot impose sanctions on separatists from Ukraine but it can do that on Russia.

What Russia will do?
First they tried to blame others, Ukrainian in this case, but even separatists themselves bragged that they shoot a plane.
So now they will blame the separatists, a faceless force, of people who bought their guns and uniforms from Donetsk mall.
But the problem is that without proper training the separatists couldn't not have operate the BUK anti-aircraft system. This article shows how difficult is to operate this system.
The people have to be trained.No ragtag militia can operate such a system, and don't think that Ukrainian army surrender their rockets to the people of Donetsk willingly.

If indeed the Ukraine military switched sides and gave the BUK system, why till now the separatist didn't shut down an high flying plane? So the BUK came recently after the separatist were losing ground because of lack of air power.
The only source for separatist BUK rockets is Russia.

What will do Russia next?

Rationally demands to  negotiate an exit from Ukraine, in order to avoid complete isolation, and economic sanctions now when everybody is demanding it.
But  Kremlin doesn't behave rationally. They will continue to support insurgents,  but they will provide for air cover themselves. Already they bombed one of their village to provide a motivation for the Russian public to support this action "to protect the motherland".

NATO in his turn will provide air cover for Ukraine, and Soviet Union and NATO will fight in the sky as in Korean War. NATO will try to do this by a UN resolution. In Security council Russia will veto and China will support it by abstaining.

How it will be the end?
In Yugoslavian wars Milosovic was beaten because his country was small isolated, had weaker air power than US and internal opposition was well organized.
Russia now is big, it doesn't care too much about isolation, has big air power and opposition is weak.
So the economic sanctions will have effects only on long term, and bombing is not an option.
The bombing was ineffective also in Yugoslavia, people united against foreign aggression and Milosevic lose power only in face of opposition demonstrations against rigging the elections.
The only people who can stop this madness are the russians, they have the mandate to overthrow Putin, but the country is big and it is hard to organize a opposition against Putin, without the risk of being poisoned.
Only in 2018 when  Putin will arrange some elections it is possible to change him.
I think till 2018 the involvement of Russia in Ukraine will continue, despite the sanctions and despite the impoverishment of ordinary Russians.
If the conflict will escalate, after the air fight between NATO and Russia, will follow naval battles, commando incursions and sabotages, and finally a full scale war.  NATO will try to avoid war but Putin will go too far.


After the Yugoslavian war Milosevic and Karadzic were trialed and convicted by an UN penal court, I hope that the authors of yesterday massacre and of crimes in Ukraine will have the same fate.

Razboi mediatic si capitalism

Daca in perioada crizei economice din 1929, Uniunea Sovietica se sprijinea pe comunistii idelisti, acuma rusia se sprijina pe dezamgitii capitalismului, din est. Astfel pe forumuri nu mai apar comentarii pro-ruse si anti-americane, ci mai degraba comunist nostalgice,anti-capitaliste si uneori anti-semite.

Oare cine a pus la TVR filmul lui Michale Moore "Capitalism a love story".
Exista o dicrepanta intre teoria si practica capitalismului.
In teorie a piata perfecta a un numar mare de firme care sa ofere produse similare la un pret jos.
In realitate chiar daca toti pornesc de la aceiasi conditii datorita diferentelor individuale unii au succes si altii nu. Altii se extind si altii pier. Competitia darwinista face legea, si piata este acaparata de un numar limitat de firme, care se pot carteliza si dicta pretul pietei.
Asupra econmiei mai afecteaza si socializarea umana, cum spuneam mai sus, competitorii se pot carteliza si fixa preturile.
Politica poate avea un rol foarte mare, unele firme reusind datorita influentei politice sa se aboneze la contracte cu statul sau sa nu fie controlate la impozite.

Capitalismul nu e perfect dar merge, si trebuie perfectionat,nu trebuie sa ne aruncam iar dupa utopii.
Cica in vremea perestroikai, rusii au trimis pe cineva la Londra sa afle care este sistemul lor de alimentare cu paine, ceea ce a derutat gazdele engleze. In capitalism nu ai un sistem de aprovizionare cu paine, dar totusi ai paine la fiecare colt de strada.

Ponta: "Ne descurcam noi,domnule Presedinte"

Daca nu as fi auzit asta de la Ponta la televizor as fi crezut ca aceasta perla a iesit din gura unui elev care nu a invatat pentru BAC si se bazeaza pe copiat.

Stiind ca Ponta e duplicitar, eu cred ca el saboteaza aceasta masura, stiind ca nu poate acoperi gaura de 5 miliarde, dar fiind obligat de cineva/ceva sa o ia.
Neputand sa bage copilul inapoi in pantec, Ponta il lasa sa moara de foame.
Alfel nu imi explic de ce nici Ponta nici ministra finantelor nu au oferit datele solicitate de presedinte.
Pana la urma este o chestie bun simt, daca iei de undeva trebuie sa pui la loc.

How Austria gets away with murder? It has a good PR

Today are 100 years since the beginning of first world war and everybody claims that the war started when the Serb Gavrilo Princip killed archiduke Franz Ferdinand.
For starting of such a gruesome war  the despicable, savage and bloodthirsty  people from Balkans are to blame, the not civilized people from Mitteleuropa, who were sipping coffee in Vienna, and discussed philosophy and art.
Probably after sipping a flavored coffee and eating a croissant the civilized and mild mannered officials of Austro-Hungarian government gave an unacceptable ultimatum to Serbia, which will lead to intervention of Russia and start of the first world war.
Austria and Russia collapsed and only  Germany, had to pay the bill of the war started by Austria.
It is not over: the country who gave Sigmund Freud the well known Jewish psychiatrist, gave birth to Hitler the well known antisemitic psychopath.
After the fall of third Reich, Austrian posed as victims, and pretend to forget the their enthusiasm toward creation of the Reich and persecution of the Jews. Sigmund Freud recounts an episode in which his father dressed as a soldier, was not allowed to walk the side-walk because he was a Jew, this was in 19 century.
At that time the Jews in Germany were very well assimilated.
Germany pays compensation for the Holocaust victims since 1952 ,Austria since 2001 despite the both countries having concentration camps and Nazi's.
Did hear about a Vienna trial for Nazi's? No.
While the Germans are very careful with nationalism, Joerg Haider, a head of a nationalistic party entered in government.
But it is not over yet. Frustrated that it is not longer an empire, Austria encouraged independence movement of Slovenia in order to gain access to Adriatic Sea. Many republics followed Slovenia example, and Yugoslavian war started.(The Serbs are also to blame.)
Its imperialism it is also economic, its bank and insurance companies bought large chunks of financial market from countries that have belong to Austrian empire.
The Austrian OMV bought the oil company Petrom and it''s gas and oil sources.
Now OMV has signed a contract with contract with Gazprom, undermining the European unity and stabbing in the back Romania,Ukraine and  other countries from East that have problems with Russia.
Austria and Russia will share as in good old times, the eastern Europe?

What I don't like it is the fact that the small countries are to be blamed. The savages are blamed for European colonialism, the Serbia is blamed for first world war. In reality the small actors reacted to what big actors did.
It seems that it is fashionable in Austria to blame the Serbs. I have read a title in a Vienna newspaper: "A Serb stabs 2 people". I read the main article: A drunken Serb killed 2 people in Belgrade.
The journalist put the title because many xenophobic Austrians would buy it.
In Mozart's country the people are drinking spritz and don't kill each other.
Instead only accidents happens, like this one:
"Daughter imprisoned in a cellar for 24 years,rapped by her father:
Police said the 42-year-old woman, identified only as Elisabeth F, told them her father, Josef, had lured her into the basement of the block where the family lived in Amstetten, north-west Austria, on August 24 1984, and allegedly drugged and handcuffed her before locking her up in the dungeon. A police spokesman said she was "psychologically extremely disturbed", but her version of events was "completely believable".The father was in custody last night.She said she had been abused by him from the age of 11. "In her own words, she was continuously abused by her father," the spokesman said. She said she had borne seven children by her father, including twins, one of whom died in 1996 after just three days. The father removed the body from the cellar and burnt it.Police said many questions remained to be answered in the case, which is reminiscent of that of the Austrian girl Natascha Kampusch, who was abducted, aged 10, on her way to school and locked in a windowless cell before dashing to freedom in August 2006.
"
Why the bad things stick to east Europeans, and Austria is like Teflon ?

Cine da tonul la politicienii din Bucuresti?

Victor Ponta si-a indulcit tonul la adresa presedintelui, acum nu mai cere demisia presedintelui in legatura cu asociarea cu mafiotul tigan Bercea Mondialul.
Oare Washingtonul l-a tras de urechi, ca incalca intelegerea de coabitare si aduce instabilitate in vecinatatea Ucrainei si Moldovei?
S-au l-a santajat Basescu ca da si el in vileag intelegerile pe care le-a facut PSD-ul cu  tiganii mafioti?
Oricum daca pentru demiterea lui Basescu,Ponta ar fi adus ca argument incuscrirea presedintelui Romanieni cu mafiot tigan m-as fi dus si eu la referendum si as fi votat impotriva lui Basescu, dar se vede ca sunt niste ageamii.
In legatura cu familia Basescu nu pot sa le zic decat atat:
Daca nu va fost greata sa va incuscriti cu un mafiot si sa jucati la nunta lui, macar puteati sa fi destepti si sa faceti precum John F. Kennedy, care dupa ce a castigat presedentia Americii, l-a chemat pe Frank Sinatra prietenul lui de pahar, care avea prieteni mafioti, si i-a spus ca nu se mai pot vedea cat timp este presedinte deoarece are prieteni lui l-ar compromite politic. Frank Sinatra a inteles si s-a despartit amical si nu s-au mai vazut niciodata.

2 types of people on youtube

There are 2 kind of people on youtube:
One kind is the people who are trying to be smart, and the other one people who are trying to be stupid and funny.
The problem is when a stupid person tries to be smart, a smart person tries to be funny by being stupid.

PSD-ul e disperat si cumpara din greu voturi

Nu imi explic altfel cum se dau vouchere pentru vacanta la bugetari. Nu inteleg unde poti sa cheltui 5000 de lei in Romania pe o vacanta normala.
Plata asta merge si la bugetari si la privati.
Nu stiu daca va tine.