Revolution in US?

What is happening in US is familiar to those witnessing a revolution:

In the country exists a charged atmosphere caused by economic hardship and arrogant leadership, see Romania in 1989, Tunisia and Egypt during Arab Spring in 2010 and 2011.

Then a minor event happen:

A pastor refuses to be removed from office (Romania), a fruit vendor self immolate (Tunisia)

People riot.

Government intervine heavy handed.

Misterious agents are infiltrated in the crowds to create more Chaos by killing people (Romania in Bucharest, Egypt in the Tahrir square)

Those who smash windows actually work in favour of the government because the anger is directed towards things not people. 

If people are eager to loot the shops this means that they are not eager to become martirs in a revolution.

Next step: people are surrounding key points of the government and media. Building of the communist party and television in Romania.

There are few outcomes from this tense situation based on what happened in Eastern Europe in 89 and what happened in Arab Spring

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring

- the leader is fleeing. But Trump cannot flee, only resign. And resigning it because some afro Americans are in the street is a huge blow for his ego.

- the government makes some concetions, and stays in power. But Ceaușescu tried the same thing in the last moment, and didn't succeeded because it was hated. Now let's say that Trump is a polarising figure.

- government crushes the revolution with it's own military forces or outside help. I don't see that happening in US. The culture of civil rights and disobedience is too engrained in US society.

- government tries to crush the revolution and things escalate to civil war. Trump was no shy about public violent speech, he might find a fool in the armed forces to help him. But trying to repress 300 million people who believe in freedom and have access to guns is futile, and will cause a civil war, which will be lost by Trump.

The good thing about US is that is decentralized government, and as we saw in this epidemic, states have enough power. Also there a lot of NGO that can help with the governance if the government really colapses.

So if Trump falls it won't be a vacuum of power and civil war as in Lybia.

If Trump stays in power he will be an atractor for public discontent and so long that people have a person that they love to hate, they will be united.

Good thing for US is that they have elections in fall and they can solve this issue peacefully.

It will be a war between India and China

Covid 19 pandemic has created chaos in many countries, also in China.

But China has the advantage of producing 30% of the world goods by quantity and every type of product. So chines doctors are having professional protected gear while western doctors had to improvise.

Putin used the chaos from Ukraine to annex Crimea.

Japanese in 1937 use the chaos from China to invade it.

Why China shouldn't do the same ?

Xi presidency was shaken by the pandemic, a national war will strength the unity of the country and dissenters will be silenced.

Milosevic has done this in Yugoslavia, the Argentinian junta did it 1986 and occupied Falklands.

The economic success was the silk glove that covered the iron fist of the communist party. But the glove is worn down, and the steel is more visible than ever. The communist ideology that made everybody equals was thrown to the dust bin of history when Deng Xiaoping said in '80: "Get rich"

Without ideology and without money to bribe people, CCP was left only with nationalism. And nationalism needs an enemy.

What enemy will China pick to fight ?

It seems that they are in good relations with Russia, we can exclude them.

They can go to the east and take Taiwan, and risk a naval warfare with US,Japan and other allies.

In naval warfare the technology is winning the battle.

In 1860 opium war few British Iron clad ship sunk all chines fleet.

In a war on sea China's strength in numbers is useless.

On east China has the economic heart,the majority of the population and of the economy, it is enough a missile to hit a power-plant and you can shut down a 10 million people city.

On the west it has India.

Between the Indian border and Beijing it is the scarcely populated Tibetan plateau.

New-Delhi is closer to the border.

It will be a land base war so China can deploy all its infantry and air-force.

There are people in Kashmir who want independence from India, and can offer information and guerilla support to Chinese.

Pakistan an ally of China, wants the region also.

There were 3 wars between China in India in region.

Conquering Kashmir region, China strengthens the ties with Pakistan, it can make an oleo-duct with Iran, and can have access to Indian Ocean.

The advantage for India is that is a mountainous region and can be easily defended.

It will be a regional war or a world war ?

If US decides to attack China in SE Asia ? Or at least to blockade the ports ?

A blockade on ports will reduce the imports of oil,iron ore and copper.

If Xi won't back because he can lose everything and Trump will not back-up either things will warm up and escalate.

US wanted to remove Assad because the wanted Russia out of Syria, and the civil war still continues today.

US can attack China coast, with losses but China cannot attack US coast without ballistic missiles.

The US has spread its economy and cities on 2 coasts, China has everything concentrated on east coast.It is more vulnerable.

US has no problem with food supply, China has a reduced arable land.

When e everything will be directed to the army, a new famine will emerge in China.

Communist party controls China and the anti-war movement can be suppressed in the bud.

US cannot control its democracy, people are tired of wars. The are worn by Afghanistan and Irak. US army is based on volunteers, China on conscripts.

If US doesn't finish in 1 or 2 years the conflict then will sue for peace, and will lose SE Asia. It will be a second Vietnam.

A Chines proverb says: "If 2 tigers are fighting one is dead and the other badly wounded"

IF China,US and India will collapse what will happen with the world ?

Brexit movie review

I have just finished watching the movie Brexit, and I wonder how the average Tommy who just finished high school could match with PhD in physics armed with algorithm and huge amount of data, with experts in behavioral psychology.

How he could face billionaires who fond it?

Tommy is swept away as the tribes from America,Africa,Asia and Australia were swept away by the machine of the colonial empires. 

In the movie the character of Dominic Cummings, says that he wanted to reset the political system to find a meaning.

The same thing Peter Thiel said in an interview with Eric Weinstein on podcast Portal, made by the former.

He wanted a reset, a kind of rejuvenation of US politics.

Little did they know that revolutions trigger return to traditions.

In 1979 after Iranian Schah was chased away, Iranian spontaneously returned to Islamic reorganisation.

In 1789 french after the terror they returned to centralized state ruled by a monarch, Napoleon.

Related to centralized state United Kingdom is more decentralized. UK is more insular and individualitic, unlike the rest of the Europe, where centralized states are the norm.

Dan Puric "Suflet romanesc"

De mult vroiam sa scriu despre cartea lui Dan Puric "Suflet romanesc" dar recentul scandal cu declaratiile privind incidentul de la Colectiv mi-au adus aminte de acest lucru.
Din pacate nu am gasit decat un fragment din sursa originala pe reddit si multe declaratii revoltate.
Dar scopul acestui post nu e sa analizez declaratiile domnului Puric ci sa descri ce am inteles despre domnia sa in carte.
Tatal domnului Puric a fost detinut politic, si intors din iadul inchisorilor comunistea a decis sa-si protejeze fiul de rautatile acestei lumi si l-a crescut la tara apoi intr-un orasel mic de provincie.
Domnul Dan Puric a dat fata cu rautatea in armata, unde sergentul a torturat o pasare ca sa-l faca sa sufere. Firea sa sensibila nu s-a impacat cu mediul brutal de acolo asa cu nu s-a impacat cu nepasarea marelui oras Bucuresti.
Ceea ce l-a ajutat sa razbata a fost copilaria sa fericita de la tara, care i-a fixat si imaginea arhetipala a romanului: un suflet bland, bun si sensibil in pericol sa fie corupt de lumea exterioara.

In carte descrie urmatoarea fabula taraneasca:
"Un taran merge pe drum cand aude niste gemete dupa o stanca: un balaur era prins intre o grota si o stanca.
Balaurul: Tarane ajuta-ma te rog ca sunt prins de stanca asta si am sa mor.
 Taranul il ajuta, si balaurul in loc sa-i  multumeasca vrea sa-l manance.
Taranul: Stai balaure e drept sa ma mananci dupa ce te-am eliberat?
Balaurul: E drept daca mi-e foame.
Taranul: Nu e drept, si am sa-ti arat judecandu-ne.
Balaurul: Sa ne judecam
Se duc la bou si apoi la cal pentru a ii judeca. Dar nu i-au dat dreptate taranului pentru ca i-a exploatat in trecut. In final ajung la vulpe.
Vulpea: Nu cred ce imi spuneti trebuie sa vad cu ochii mei.
Se duc la locul cu pricina.
Vulpea: Balaurule arata cum stateai exact in grota, ca nu imi dau seama.
Balaurul se pune in grota, iar vulpea ii face semn taranului sa puna piatra la loc sa-l prinda pe balaur"

Ce intelege domnul Puric din asta ?
Ca totul e bine numai ca ne trebuie o "vulpe". Taranul nostru roman nu poate fi viclean.
Ori realitatea il contrazice. Un misionar catolic se plangea pe la 1600 ca taranii din Moldova nu-s asa simpli cum credea.
Dar exemplele cele mai clare le avem de la marii nostrii oameni de stat care au avut calitati negative:
Mihai Viteazu si-a ucis creditorii, Vlad Tepes a tras in teapa pe cine a apucat, Stefan cel Mare era manios si degraba varsatoriu de sange.
Romania s-a creat printr-o viclenie in 1859 cand ambele tari romane l-au ales pe Cuza.

In viziunea domnului Puric, daca romanul e bun si pur, raul vine din afara, de la straini, uitand ca sarpele s-a aflat in paradis de la inceput.
Dupa viziunea sa solutia pare simpla: purificarea neamului romanesc reintoracerea la radacini.
Asta se poate face prin eliminarea a ce e occidental, evreiesc,oriental, slav, chiar si a ce este roman. In fond romanii au fost straini. 
Din fericire nu stim mai mult despre preistorie altfel ne-am intoarce pana la civilizatia Cucuteni sa ne gasim radacinile.
Din fericire domnul Puric se opreste la daci. Oare dacii care nu vorbeau o limba romanica sunt romani? Adica esenta identitatii noastre este limba romana, cea mai grea dovada ca suntem aici macar de la anul 106. Cum sa renuntam la ea pentru a fi mai romani.

Va suna cunoscuta ideea ca strainii au stricat natia ?
Nazistii aveau o idee similara, numai ca pe baze rasiste.

Nu cred ca domnul Puric va sustine vreodata, deportarea cetatenilor necorespunzatori, insuficineti de "romani" dar ideea asta ca  totul e rau din cauza strainilor, si ca poporul roman a fost corupt, poate inflori in alte capete mai mici si mai predispuse spre violenta si gata sa renunte la scrupule morale.

Poetul Gabriele D'Annunzio i-a inspirat pe fascisti, sper ca actorul Dan Puric sa nu-i inspire pe neo-legionari.

Unirea a doua elemente diferite: taranul naiv si puternic si vulpea vicleana au invins raul. In fata raului nu poti rezista singur doar cu naivitatea si puritatea sufleteasca, trebuie si putina viclenie.Si daca nu poti avea aliaza-te cu cineva care are.
Vulpea reprezinta strainul binevoitor cu puncte de vedere diferite, cu abilitati diferite dar manat de aceiasi dorinta de dreptate ca si noi.

The Alps are the new border of UE

The economical situation of Italy was bad before the corona virus crisis. the country is indebted 130%.
Now there are 1000 dead a day, the country is in lock-down, and in Palermo people they to get away from supermarkets without paying.
All the politicians from Salvini to president Matarella are requesting for UE help now.
UE as usual is slow to react, and Germany, Holland  don't want to open unconditionally the purse, but call for the use of European Central Bank fonds: the European Stability Mechanism.
Any contract is based on trust,UE is based on trust that countries wil cooperate.
A failure to Germany to help Italy will destroy the trust and UE.
So Germany in order to restore the faith in UE and silence anti-EU voice as Salvini, must give an humanitarian aid to Italy.
It must not fear of right wing politicians who are against.
German people including the AfD simpatisants, are in general decent people and they help other countries in need.
They were many donations from ordinary people to Romania.
For sure they will understand to help the Italy the country  were they spend their vacations.
The spontaneous support for Italy in German cities (the singing at windows) shows that an humanitarian aid will be favorably seen.
The humanitarian aid is a thing that must be done even with the risk of political career.
But what Angela Merkel risks ? How many times she can be chancellor ?
Anyway she  lost right wing electorate with refugees crisis, now it cannot win them back, with not aiding Italy.

Decision aid table for politicians during epidemic crisis

Below I made decision matrix for politicians in case of epidemic.
Maybe it will help them take better decisions  and don't do as Boris Johnson did to act as in case#1 when in fact situation is more like in case#2
The case#4 is the chinese case after the declaration of epidemic.
Hard measures can include closing pubs, travel restrictions, fines,city lock down.

	No infections	Big epidemic
No measures	Case#1 Lives lost: 0 Economic loses: 0 Political situation: nothing changed	Case#2 Lives lost: maximum Economic loses: maximum Political situation: people will blame you for doing nothing. Civil unrest
Hard measures	Case#3 Lives lost:0 Economic loses: big Political situation: you can claim that your measures saved lives. People will be slighly discontent of you. Maybe they will forget about it at next elections	Case#4 Lives lost: Economic loses: big Political situation: you can claim that you did your best but nature was strong and people were dumb and didn’t respect order. You can convince people that is the fault of undisciplined personas who disobeyed the rules, and deflect the blame. Public discontent will be lower that in the case 2 and 3

Who is really important in a society

Now in this corona virus crisis we realised that we are depending on low paid workers:
-nurses
-truck drivers
-janitors
-sales people
-policemen
-delivery people
Now the Wall Street bankers are useless.
Maybe the corona virus crisis will balance the wage difference. Maybe the nurses will be paid more from now on.