Lectiile de autoaparare ar trebui predate la scoala

Recenta crima din Baia Mare in care o fata a fost strangulata de fostul iubit ma face sa ma gandesc ca ar trebui facute cursuri de autoaparare in scoli mai ales ca unele eleve au fost batute, unele violate iar unele au fost omorate.
Global 35% din femeile ucise,ucise de sot,sau iubit.La asta se adauga violenta domestica neraportata.
Scenariul in care sotul, iubitul isi bat sau omoara femeia, este destul de frecvent, si nu inteleg de ce nu se face nimic?
Sunt destule tehnici de autoaparare care opresc un atacator sa te sugrume.
Pacat ca se pierd orele de sport cu exercitii stupide in loc sa se predea notiuni care iti pot apara viata.

Lupta politica submineaza SMURD, si ne costa vieti.

Dupa accidentul aviatic de la Suitghiol, televiziunile de partid s-au dezlantuit.
Ca niste hiene s-au incaierat la capatiul mortilor tragicului accident.
B1 l-a facut pe Raed Arafat pesedist, a insinuat ca ar fi ceva tulbure cu achizitiile de la SMURD. Iar un invitat care a fost inainte ceva scula politica pe la Interne, a spus de Arafat ca e un simplu medic, de parca 10 ani de Medicina nu se ridica la nivelul celor 4 ani de studiu la Academia de Politie.

Pe de alta parte Antenele l-au invitat pe Arafat, si i-au acuzat pe basisti ca pe vremea lui Boc, s-au luat taiat banii de la sanatate si nu pot retine in sistem oamenii pregatiti. Ce avea bugetul de atunci cu faptul ca nu a mers o barca cu motor acum? Toate sistemele trebuiau sa mearga unse.
Domnul Arafat nu a vrut sa intre in jocul lor si a tacut.

Sa zicem ca detractorii lui Arafat au dreptate, ca e depasit ca e vremea sa plece acasa.
Revista Harvard Business Review spunea ca dupa antreprenor, urmeaza managerul apoi leaderul.

Sa zicem ca antreprenorul Arafat nu mai face fata. Are cineva un manager care sa il puna in loc lui?

Vrea cineva un manager de la ministerul de Interne? Acolo unde conteaza mai mult respectul fata de sef iar cetateanul este trimis la plimbare sa-si rezolve problemele, cum a patit un amic care a reclamat la politie ca a fost injurat si agresat de un golan, iar politaiul local ia spus ca trebuia sa-l pocneasca pe golan.
E greu sa gasesti o asistenta care sa nu-ti panseze o rana, totusi, dar un politist local care sa nu-si faca treaba de a infrunta golanii, gasesti destui.

Poate ca Arafat e bun deoarece e medic, si are legatura directa cu oamenii suferinzi ai tarii asteia.
Poate unii il vor plecat pe Arafat pentru ca sta in calea unor manarii.
Poate unii din dreapta se tem de popularitatea lui Arafat, si se tem ca PSD se va folosi de Arafat ca de un port drapel asa cum PNL+PDL s-au folosit de Klaus Johannis.
Daca Ponta isi facea treaba bine, si era corect cu alegerile, Johannis nu castiga.
Sper ca poltica sa nu afecteze SMURD-ul si sa pletim cu viata pentru incompetenta si reaua politicienilor.

De ce membrii juniori ai Casei Regale Romane nu vorbesc bine romaneste

Nici acum dupa 25 ani de stat in Romania, printesa Margareta inca vorbeste cu accent romana, desi tatal ei e de origine romana.
In schimb Raed Arafat care este palestinian vorbeste foarte bine, cu un usor accent arab.
Asta dovedeste ca Arafat are mai mult legatura cu romanii decat asa zisii principi ai Romaniei.

Forgotten lessons from the past

According to an article in NY Times the president of Turkey Recep Erdogan,let's say it mildly opposes birth control.
25 years ago Nicolae Ceausescu the dictator of Romania was shot. People cheered then but Ceausescu wasn't always hated.
He started by being more liberal, he oriented the politics and economy towards USA and Western Europe and economy grew with 2 digits by year.We even stood against URSS when they invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968.
Embolden by his successes he banned the abortion in Romania, and he took draconian measures to ensure that no pregnancy had aborted. The secret police Securitate, had the task to enforce just that.
(Also there were no condoms, or hours of sexual education to prevent unwanted pregnancies)
The rising population coupled with an economy in decline, gave rise to strikes in 1977, in 1987 and to a bloody revolution 1989, in which Ceausescu lost his life.
Mr Erdogan before he bans the birth control must see these films:
Children of the decrees
4 months 3 weeks and 2 days by Cristian Mungiu

If he doesn't care about this maybe his supporters will care, because he might not be in power to pay subsidies for children, but they will have to raise their children anyway.

Klaus Johannis si emigratia

Simpatia lui Johannis fata de diaspora nu este data numai de voturile date de acestia la alegerile prezidentiale. Sora si parintii sunt emigranti in Germania si stie ce inseamna lipsa familiei, fortate sa plece din Romania din cauza greutatilor economice.Iar deportarea etnicilor de catre rusi in Siberia in 1945 ii face pe acestia sa nu priveasca cu ochi buni Rusia.

Somaj sau proasta utilizare a resurselor umane?

Am vazut alaltaieri o emisiune a lui Moise Guran despre economia comunista. La final, Moise a spus ca lipsa de competitie cauzata de lipsa somajului a dus la caderea comunismului. Deoarece nu era somaj, nu era competitie, nefiind competitie nu erau produse bune.
Sa zicem ca toti oamenii de frica somajului ar fi muncit mai mult, ar fi schimbat cu ceva soarta investitiilor proaste si a managementului prost?
In intreprindere nu este o democratie, un intreprinzator sau statul, vine cu bani si angajeaza niste oameni care trebuie sa munceasca pentru el si sa faca ce zice el. Gradul de libertate al deciziilor angajatilor depinde de intreprinzator si/sau de stat.
Sistemul economic actual nu este democratic: nu se unesc niste muncitori, pun niste bani, fac o firma muncesc cu totii la ea, si impart profitul.
Si chiar de s-ar intampla asa ceva, din considerente practice tot angajeaza specialisti in pozitii de autoritate, pentru a face managementul firmei, pentru a dezvolta produse noi, sau pentru a supraveghea productia.
Iar daca firma se dezvolta noii veniti vor fi angajati pe pozitii inferioare, si asa volens-nolens, firma creste pe verticala, intr-un sistem ierarhic nedemocratic.
In final soarta firmei este determinata mai putin de angajati cat de manager si conjunctura.
Pentru ca o economie sa reziste la schimbarile conjuncturale ea trebuie sa fie diversa (sa aiba firme in cat mai multe domenii) si sa fie pluralista (resursele economice sa fie dispersate la cat mai multi factori de decizie).
Astfel daca o firma se inchide din cauza crizei, alta sa profite, iar muncitorii dati afara de la prima sa se reangajeze la a doua.
Distribuirea bogatiei la mai multi inseamna decizii economice mai diverse din care cateva pot iesi castigatoare.
Sistemul comunism nu avea nici diversitate si pluralitate.
Ca o corporatie din ziua de azi era orientat spre eficienta si spre deosebire de o corporatie din ziua de azi era orientat spre angajarea oamenilor in campul muncii.
O idee nobila, numai ca unii oameni nu merita sa munceasca, unii sunt chiar lenesi, si de ce sa-i tina altii in spate.
Nu sunt de acord nici cu amenintarea oamenilor cu somajul care i se pare fireasca lui Moise Guran si altor oameni cu gandire pro-business.
Nu trebuie sa mergem in America in 1886 pentru a gasi abuzuri determinate de o forta de munca ieftina, atunci ca si acum, saracii muncesc peste 8h, iar drepturile de protectia muncii le sunt incalcate, de niste patroni pe care ii doare in cur, ca un muncitor poate cadea de pe schela ca nu este asigurat, sau ca poate intra cu microbuzul cu pasageri intr-un stalp deoarece a condus prea mult.
Somajul nu determina investitii in capital uman, si nu determina managementul sa caute solutii mai bune, si mai echitabile.
Daca ai avea posibilitatea sa-l dai afara oricand pe angajat, de ce sa pleci urechea la problemele lui?
Daca e greu sa-l retii, atunci te gandesti si la mediul de lucru, daca este stresat sau nu, si atunci si managementul trebuie sa fie mai inteligent. Compara lucrul intr-o fabrica de confectii cu lucrul intr-o firma de IT.
Din cauza somajului oamenii calificati fac munci necalificate, si este o proasta utilizare  a capitalului uman.
Oamenii muncesc din mai multe motive: in primul rand sa puna o paine pe masa, apoi din nevoia de a realiza ceva sau de a avea bani de distractie.
Somerul pe linga ca are grija zilei de maine, se simte marginalizat si nu se simte implinit, trebuie sa faca ceva sa-si umple zilele, si de aceea ajunge sa-l voteze pe Hiter sau sa-l sustina pe Mussolini, sau pe bolsevici.
Somajul este adevarata stare de sanatate a economiei, arata cat de bine sunt folosite resursele, si cat de robusta este societatea la schimbari.

Accidentul de pe Suitghiol si siguranta elicopterelor

Cautand o explicatie pentru accidentul de pe lacul Suitghiol am gasit acest document:
http://flightsafety.org/hs/hs_mar-apr89.pdf
Se pare ca e suficientunt un curent de aer care sa fie necompensat de pilot pentru ca elicopterul sa isi piarda stabilitatea.
De asemenea un simlu surub care nu a rezistat la 30 de ore de zbor a determinat prabusirea unui elicopter.

How tolerance encourages murder

I saw the news about the hostage crisis in Australia, where a psychopath, and sex offender and self proclaimed sheik has taken 15 hostages.
I think that Australian authorities  are confusing tolerance towards other religions with  tolerance towards all kind of nuts who are self proclaiming sheiks and want to die as martyrs.
Why this guy wasn't expelled from Australia when he sent hate mail to soldiers killed in Afghanistan? He was a radical and aggressive militant, the next natural step for him was to kill some infidels.
Why he was released on bail with such behavior?

Tolerance towards this type of criminals encouraged them to ramp up their criminal behaviour and undermines the integration of the local Muslim community.

The book 'Joseph Anton'  by Salman Rushdie shows the same behaviour from part of British authorities in late '80 early '90.
Instead of Britain to defend his citizen convicted to death by an foreign government for crime of free writing, the Thatcher government preferred to isolate and silence Rushdie and appease Iranian government, because of oil and gas.
They prefer to give attention to radical and noisy Muslims, instead to negotiate with integrated and moderated Muslims.
Maybe the London bombings from 7 july 2005 would never happened if Thatcher government would stand tall in front or Iranian demands and would encourage the integrated British Muslims.

How labour division affected youth and family

Since the switch to the capitalism in Romania, the juvenile crime it is on the rise. The parents are busy working and they don't spend enough time with their children.
But in remote tribes from Amazon, the juvenile crime is low.
The children are always in contact with their parents, either with their mother when they are small either with their father, when they are teenagers.
When they spend time with their parents they learn their skills to survive.
The skills can be easily taught.
In Amazon tribes there are not unskilled labourers who cannot earn a living, so an young man can hunt and fish from the day he becomes major.
A young man in a civilized society cannot earn his living from the day he became a major because either he doesn't have the skills, either he has no experience. He is more disadvantages than a hunter gatherer who fished since he was 10 and hunted since he was 16.
Our society works because the labour it is divided and we exchange goods. A peasant cannot smelt iron and work the fields (see Chinese Great Leap forward why). So who he has to concentrate in what he does best and the metallurgist in what he knows best and exchange potatoes for ploughs.
Because of specialisation and technological complexity of the jobs, a young man cannot be taught by his parents, he must leave them to go to study, to be influenced by the school and by his peers.

Parents must go also to their highly specialised jobs where they cannot bring their children to learn their jobs, The children cannot simply inherit the job of their parents and the parents must trade off  the time spent with children for the time spent working.

The children rely on state infrastructure to offer them the necessary surviving skills.
The educational system must match the requirement from the job market, the skills of the student with the budget. And the state has limited information about what the employer wants and the young can do. The labour market also cannot solve the problem because the young people don't know all the professions, and they could make wrong decisions.


I think in order to reduce juvenile crime, the parents must not work hard to support the family, and they must have cheaper goods for their children: better cheaper education, cheaper healthcare,
The business must have a say in vocational training of the young's, because they know what they want, and young must have the skills demanded by the labour market.
Periods of training in firms are necessary, to expose the youngs to the rality of the job and to diferent vocations.
The education system must be flexible to allow children to put their qualities and talents to a good use, and allow later a swift change of job for young people, if the conditions of the job market changed.

3 important questions

At the beginning there were subatomic particles, protons,neutron and electrons.
Then they aggregate in chemical elements, which formed molecules.
From organic molecules life emerged.
The life gave birth to humans and conscious intelligence,
Abstract thinking formed written language, and history and large societies emerged.
What it will be next?
How life was created from simple elements?
How human intelligence appeared?

Movie review: Mocking jay

The film set-up is more sober, this time, the glamour of Capitol is missing.
Katniss Evergreen is forced to join a militaristic society of rebels, who try to use her as a symbol, to rally the troops.
The more elder rebel president Alma Coin, and Plutarh old Capitol game master, are trying to steer Katniss for their interest using her emotions as reins.
Katniss as any young female, is untameable, their can't force her to act in front of camera. In Capitol she acted to save innocents, now she is free to negotiate the terms.
On the other side president Putin, I meant Snow, sorry, is trying to pull her emotional reins by  keeping Peeta captive, and use him as a propaganda tool. Katniss is torn apart between her love for Peeta, the disgust for his words and the love for her old lover Gale, who stand by her.
Gale will be noble enough to volunteer to rescue Peeta from Snow's hand, leaving Katniss anxious about the fact that bothe her lovers are in Snow's grasp.
If in previous 3 film, action and glamour predominated, this film is more sober and more psychological.
Some scenes are very realistic, sometimes you think you see images from Ukraine war zone.
I won't spoil the end, but I will say that the screen writer have left an opening for the next film.
What is strange how some things don't change:
 In Romania in presidential 2014 elections, and before that in 1989, the elders politicians have steered the discontent and energy of the young people, to reach the power.
Now I just expect next Mocking Jay film and the next year to see how they will use it.

Reptilian brain versus mammalian brain in Romanian elections.

PSD and Victor Ponta didn't see it coming, they lost at almost 9% difference after they leaded in polls with 10%.Why?
The first layer of the brain it is the reptilian brain, it handles territory protection and food, it is ruled by fear and hunger.
The second layer it is mammalian brain. It handles social skills and emotions. In this layer resides the empathy, commitment and social bonding.
The messages given by Ponta campaign staff came from the reptilian brain:

• Fear: Johannis, will secede Transylvania, will start a civil war. He is a foreigner and an heretic.Only the current government will protect the pensions.
• Hunger: If Johannis will win, you will suffer from pensions cuts and unemployment as it was under Boc government.

They tried to separate the electorate from mr. Johannis
But fear of losing elections determined them to block the vote from diaspora.
Their reptilian brain didn't understand that the emotions of seeing fellow Romanians, crowded in front of embassy triggered a solidarity with them in Romania, and the society coagulated against Ponta government. They didn't understood other people feelings.
The adversaries of mister Ponta used messages for the mammalian brain: solidarity with our fellow countrymen, unity against tyranny, fight for common values of freedom and justice.  They united the electorate against Ponta, and they succeed.
Mammalian brain 1 reptilian brain 0. The evolution works, it seems.
Mr. Ponta stuff would succeded in a system that uses fear and hunger to control people: a dictatorship, but the democratic society it is based on social bonds, and on shared values, so to succeed in such a society you must have empathy to understand people and convince them.
They are not adapted to a democratic society, so they will disappear, as our society will become more democratic.

Indian Babel Tower

I have read the this article and it seems that new India government tries to reject  western influence and tries to make the society more 'Indian'.
A society that seeks its identity will try to clean the language first.
In 1859 Romania, gave up Cyrillic alphabet and started to clean the language from non-latin words. In same time Greece tried to reverse history and return to ancient Greek language. In 1921 Turkey was cleaning the Turkish language from foreign elements but adopted the Latin alphabet.
Also Unites States became more Anglo-Saxon, after the education became standardised and English was mandatory, a beginning of the XX century.
In Romania, the trend to make the language more national stopped when it tried to replace foreign technical words with Romanian words.
For example we didn't have the word for screw, so we imported the German word Schraube and we transformed in to surub.
The purpose of making romanian language more uniform and more latin, was to strengthen the new formed state, that didn't had enough military power to impose it's will.
This was eased because the dialects were very similar, the population was small and concentrated in a small area, compared with India.
This is not the case in India, it has a huge population, spread over a large surface, with many languages.
Under what language you can unite this population?
If you try to impose a dialect from a region, then the nationalism from other will rise. This is the reason why in EU you have so many official languages, despite the fact that everyone uses English.
If you encourage every region to use its own language without having an official language like English, India will be separated into regions and it cease to exist.
People will follow the path of least resistance and learn only one language and discuss only with the people from the region who uses that language.
But the dumbest idea is to translate foreign scientific words into sanskrit.
How you translate transistor in sanskrit? This device didn't existed 60 years ago?
Romania gave up translating scientific words into romanian, and adopted foreign word when it didn't had one, so the romanian society cached up with Western science and in 1911 a romanian Henri Coanda presented at Paris first jet engine. In '30 Eugen Ionescu and Emil Cioran published in french their works. And Mircea Eliade wrote later his treaty of history of religion.
If these people would be deprived from knowing from the school a foreign language, then their country would be deprived from some world class scientist or world class writers, they will deprived from personal development and the world would be deprived from some valuable persons.
The reason why India has a big influence in international science and especially in IT, it is because many educated people know English, and they learned science using English scientific term, this connected to the world, and allowed a cultural exchanged who enriched India.
I don't understand why this have to be changed. And if it is changed where it is the gain?
According to the Bible, when people tried to build a tower to reach the sky, God stopped them by giving them different languages.
India it is like a Babel tower, if it doesn't find a common language it will crumble.

Ponta a pierdut

Machiavelli ii recomanda princepelui ca pentru a conduce trebuie sa nu fie urat de oameni.
Ponta a reusit sa fie urat: miciuna, ipocrizia, atacurile murdare au fost folosite prea des ca sa nu fie observate.
Ponta a fost cel care a unit tara impotriva lui.
La asta se adauga impotenta administratiei PSD din judete de a gasi solutii pentru problemele tinerilor: somaj, locuinte, invatamant.
Un alegator pro-Ponta a fost intrebat: A facut ceva PSD-ul pentru tine? Nu. Si atunci de ce il votezi?
Alegatorul roman e pragmatic, nu crede in statistici, in trenduri. Se uita in buzunar, si functie de asta voteaza. I-a luat basescu banii a votat impotriva lui, nu i-a dat nimic Ponta a votat impotriva lui.
Ponta avand 2 ani de mandat de prim ministru putea sa faca ceva, sa faca niste lacrari publice, sa salveze CFR marfa, Oltchim. Dar obisnuit doar cu trasul sforilor in partid, nu avut curajul unor abordari curajoase in economie.
In politica e ca in surfing: trebuie sa vezi care e valul mare,sa te urci pe el si sa reusesti sa stai pe el.
Ponta nu a ghicit valul de anti-coruptie care crestea si nu s-a pozitionat pe el, in schimb Johannis a facut-o si acum este sustinut de un val anti-coruptie, sa vedem cum sta pe el si cum reuseste sa-si fidelizeze electoratul.
Basescu a facut prostia sa fie presedinte jucator, de parca un campionat de fotbal corupt are nevoie de jucatori buni, si nu de arbitri corecti.
Ma astept de la Johannis sa fie un arbitru corect. El nu datoreaza nimic PDL sau PNL, a caror activitate in judetele PSD a fost minora, datoreaza totul voluntarilor care s-au mobilizat pe facebook.

Lack of professionalism or bias in Western Europe media?

Yesterday I looked for informations in international media about Romanian elections.
The information was scarce despite the fact that at Romanian embassies from Munchen and London has long queues in front of the gates.
A friend from Munchen voted after 10 hours of waiting.
But you could not find this information on BBC site or on  Deutsche Welle site.
What you could find the were some dull articles (see here and here) in which Victor Ponta was a sure winner.
BBC and Deutsche Welle were professional news agencies who cover a wide range of interests, so I expected a better analysis and better informations.
Why they ignored the polls in which Ponta and Johannis were running neck to neck?
Lack of professionalism?
It was desired in Germany and UK, Ponta's victory?
European Socialist Party had the interest to have a PSD victory in Romania?
I find the European parties a real mistake. Maybe some countries afford to have socialist policies, maybe other need more pro business policies.
It depends of the countries and other from outside should not interfere in internal economic policy. The days of International Socialist, and Comintern are over.

Legarea picioarelor si votul pentru PSD

Citind o carte despre istoria Chinei, am aflat de obiceiul legarii picioarelor la femei pentru a avea un picior cat mai mic.
Fetelelor de la o varsta frageda, cred ca de la 4 ani li se legau labele picioarelor pentru ca sa nu se dezvolte. Fetele sufereau ani in sir dureri ingrozitoare.
Interesant ca aceste fete ajunse mame, le aplicau fiicelor aceiasi metoda de scurtare a labei piciorului.
Cartea intreba cititorul de ce mamele aplicau acest tratament inuman fiicelor desi ele suferisera asa mult.
O prima motivatie ar fi fost din cauze economice, femeile neputand avea slujbe platite, trebuiau sa se marite, iar barbatii bogati doreau femei cu piciorul mic. Taranii erau mai pragmatici si vroiau femei cu picioare normale care sa-i ajute la gospodarie.
Un alt motiv pentru care bogatii vroiau femei cu piciorul mic era faptul ca femeile cu piciorul mic nu puteau fugi daca erau nemultumite de sot, toate casatoriile fiind aranjate.
Totusi cum puteau suporta femeile sa-si tortureze fiicele, dupa ce au fost torturate la randul lor.
O prima cauza ar fi obisnuita, omul dupa un timp se obisnuieste cu raul, iar el compara ce era inainte cu ce e acum.
Mama chinezoaica stia ca durerea va trece si se va obisnui, pentru fiica era ceva neasteptat.
Pentru generatia de dinainte de '89 regimul PSD actual este liberal fata de regimul PCR, si oricum pe vremea PCR-ului nimeni nu a murit de foame, asa cum nimeni nu a murit ca avea laba piciorului mai scurta.
Pentru generatia tanara obisnuita cu mai multa libertate, actualul regim este ca o legatura ce impiedica picioarele sa creasca, pentru a-l tine dependent de stat. Generatia tanara nu s-a obisnuit cu durerea si infrangerea, si ar fi bine sa nu se obisnuiasca vreodata.
A doua cauza a fost supunerea, de mici erau invatati sa se supuna normelor si sa indure, deoarece nu se poate schimba nimic. 50 de ani poporul a invatat sa se supuna normelor comuniste si timp de mii de ani a invatat sa indure pentru ca nu poate face nimic.

Votul pentru PSD este un vot pentru dependenta. E ca si cum ai intra intr-o casatorie aranjata cu un bogatas pentru ca el sa te intretina si tu sa ii faci copiii/sustinatori.
Toata filozofia lor este sa ia de la unii si sa dea la altii, si sa pastreze mult mai mult pentru ei. Dar asta nu produce crestere economica, statul nu poate crea joburi. Oamenii cu bani creeaza joburi.
Daca ai bani in loc sa stai in fata TV-ului, te duci la un concert si platesti niste artisti care in mod normal ar muri de foame, pe drum ai lua un taxi care si el ar  sta degeaba daca tu ai sta acasa la TV.
Dar din sistemul asta de distributie nu beneficiaza pensionarii, care nu pot sa munceasca.
Ei sunt afectati de cresterea economica deoarece preturile cresc, iar pensiile stagneaza.
Este in interesul lor pentru a avea un stat care distribuie.
Statul distribuie prost si daca pentru pensionari distribuie mai mult deoarece voteaza, pentru cei de sub 18 ani nu distribuie, deoarece nu voteaza.Si cand zic asta ma gandesc la rata anafalbetismului care este in crestere de dupa '89 si este cea mai mare din Europa.
Cei care voteaza PSD mutileaza viitorul in favoarea castigurilor imediate. Macar mamele chinezoaice se gandeau la viitorul ficelor lor cand isi mutilau fiicele.
Ce va face PSD-ul cand nu vor mai avea pensionari?
PSD-ul deja a inceput concentrarea mass media si amutirea vocilor critice: Moise Guran va fi dat afara de la TVR, grupului Distractis i s-a anulat un spectacol, din Iasi ce trebuia sa aiba loc intr-o sala a Patriarhiei.
Ar trebui ca tinerii sa se coalizeze si sa se implice mai activ in politica,pentru a conta ca o forta politica, dar omul nu gandeste in perspectiva, gandeste pe baza trecutului, si de abia dupa ce ai acumulat suficient trecut poti sa iti dai seama la ce te asteapta in viitor.

Basescu este noul Goldstein

Am vazut ieri filmul "1984" dupa romanul omonin de George Orwell.
In film si in carte furia maselor asuprite este reorientata dinspre tiran Fratele cel Mare spre tradatorul Goldstein prin manifestatii publice de ura.
Acum PSD-ul l-a distribuit pe Basescu in rolul lui Goldstein iar oamenii nu se mai aduna in manifestatii publice, trebuie doar sa se uite la televizor.

Presedintele care dezbina

Ca orice scoate pe gura V. Ponta si sloganul "Presedintele care uneste" este fals.
Cred ca va fi primul presedinte care va dezbina tara.
Cei din Transilvania s-au saturat sa dea bani de la buget pentru ca guvernele PSD sa plateasca votul asistatilor sociali din Oltenia si Moldova.
Iar cei din Moldova si Oltenia s-au saturat sa stea in saracie, asa ca au plecat in strainatate, astfel ca judetele sarace sunt captive la mana asistatilor sociali.
Blocand diaspora, PSD blocheaza pe cei din Moldova si Muntenia sa voteze de fapt.
S-ar putea sa fie ultima picatura care sa umple paharul, si sa ne trezim cu un vot pentru independenta Transilvaniei, iar Victor Orban si Vladimir Putin si-ar freca bucurosi mainile.

Romania in Evul Mediu

Sunt dezamagit de scorul obtinut de Monica Macovei la alegeri. Ma asteptam sa nu treaca in turul 2, dar credeam ca va obtine mai multe voturi deca sluga PSD-istilor Tariceanu. A avut o campanie mai buna, mai inventiva, fata de campania fada a lui Tariceanu.
Oare oamenii nu sunt interesati de justitie?
Au parut interesati atunci cand l-au votat pe Vadim, care promitea executii pe stadioane.
Ma intreb ce se intampla daca Monica Macovei promitea acelasi lucru.
Se pare ca din punct de vedere a regulilor suntem in evul mediu cand predomina vendeta personala si nu respectarea unui cod de legi acceptat de toti cetatenii, iar drepturile omului nu existau ci doar privilegiile seniorilor care erau impartite la slugi dupa loialitate.

Tot  din evul ar trebui sa invatam ca banii urmeaza forta si nu invers, baronii feudali nu produceau nimic si isi permiteau sa ia si pielea de pe taran, deoarece aveau fortele armate.
Deci pentru ca banii sa fie distribuiti cat mai echitabil dreptul fortei trebuie sa fie franat de justitie.

Conflictele armate au fortat centralizarea statelor si dezvoltarea tehnologiei militare, ceea ce a facut ca armatele de tarani conduse de feudali sa nu mai aiba valoare militara, dominand in schimb armatele de mercenari instruiti in utilizarea armelor de foc si care erau platiti din banii negustorilor.
Negustorii au capata astfel o influenta politica mai mare in defavoarea feudalilor.
La fel trebuie sa se intample si la noi, firmele care adauga valoare prin cercetare si manufactura trebuie sa depaseasca ca valoare firmele care sug de la sanul statului.

In plus statul roman trebuie recentralizat din punct de vedere a fortelor de ordine si justitie, nu e posibil sa existe republica Constanta si comitatele Vrancea,Teleorman si Olt.
Pentru asta, cine vine la guvernare trebuie sa schimbe sistemul, puterea sa fie impartita printr-o competitie deschisa si clara, cu respectarea unor reguli.Totusi nu cred ca se vor abtine sa nu ia totul pentru ei.

Movie review: Kill the messenger

Dupa acest film ii inteleg mai bine pe jurnalistii care se vand, sau care scriu la ordin.De ce sa strigi lupul si sa arati ca CIA-ul a finantat Contras din afacerile cu droguri pe care le tolera. cand poti sa publici la ordin documente secrete scurse de la serviciile secrete sa pari mare jurnalist de investigatii sa incasezi un salariu gras la un mare ziar sau de la o mare televiziune (vezi cazul lui Turcescu)
Daca fluieri in biserica si spui adevarul s-a putea sa te trezesti cu viata distrusa,sa-ti pierzi serviciul, sa vezi cum prietenii dau inapoi in loc sa te ajute cand esti atacat de toata mass media. Si sa sfarsesti ca Gary Webb personajul principal al filmului sinucis cu 2 gloante in cap.
Oricine a contestat autoritatea stie ca asa zisii prieteni si colegi nu te mai sustin, ca se incepe o campanie de ponegrire de catre asa zisi lideri de opinie si tot felul de lingai care asteapta o functie mai calduta, sar sa te atace in speranta ca vor fi remarcati de sefi.
Doina Cornea se plangea ca dupa ce au devenit publice conflictele cu Securitatea si partidul ca multi prieteni se faceau ca nu o vad si treceau pe partea cealalta a strazii. Riscand mult mai putin, colegii americani ai lui Gary Webb au facut la fel, s-au dezis de el si l-au lasat la mana ziaristilor controlati de CIA.
Macelul din decembrie '89 a avut loc din cauza minciunii. Minciuna si tacerea au deschis calea unor incompetenti spre putere. Raportarile fanteziste de productie la hectar, au impins o tara bogata din punct de vedere agricol spre foamete.
Faptul ca CIA a impiedicat DEA sa-si faca treaba a dus la moartea a mii de oameni in SUA datorita consumului de droguri.
Minciuna ucide. Sa va amintiti de asta cand va duceti sa votati.
Inainte de a fi jurnalist un om este cetatean, si in calitatea de cetatean trebuie sa aperi adevarul.
Ideal ar fi ca toti cetatenii sa fie preocupati sa afle si sa sustina adevarul.
Dar unii au si slujbe, si nu pot dupa 8h de munca sa faca investigatii.
Pentru asta sunt platiti jurnalistii. Dar ei sunt platiti de patroni
Pentru ca jurnalistii sa lucreze pentru cetateni ar trebui sa fie platiti direct de catre cetateni.
Blogurile platite ar fi un inceput.

PS. Un articol interesant despre musamalizarea afacerii Contras gasiti aici:
http://consortiumnews.com/2014/10/09/the-sordid-contra-cocaine-saga/
Daca in America, tara celor liberi, se fac mizerii de astea ce pretentii sa avem de la tarisoara noastra de abia iesit din comunism.

Cele patru tipuri de agenti acoperiti ale lui Sun Tzu

Sun Tzu marele strateg chinez spunea ca sunt 4 mari categorii de spioni:
-volanti: agenti in miscare care cerceteaza obiective si cauta oameni pentru recrutat. De exemplu un negustor care trece printr-o zona
-interni: agenti care lucreaza pentru tine din interiorul obiectivului. De exemplu secretara sefului de Stat major
-dubli: agenti trimisi de dusmani dar care lucreaza pentru tine. Vezi cazul Dusko Popov
-sacrificabili: agenti fara importanta care cred ca au informatii importante, dar care in realitate sunt false si care sunt lasati sa fie capturati de inamic.
 In ce categorii intra acoperitii nostri?
Turcescu este clar agentul sacrificabil, pus ca sa deruteze dusmanul, informatiile sale sunt nule.
Ponta este ori agentul volant cand a fost in exterior, or este agentul intern cand a fost procuror si lucra cu SIE. Desi la incompetenta dovedita, nu cred ca a facut mare branza ca agent acoperit in afara.
Daca SIE il sustine pe Ponta si pe Melescanu, cine il sustine pe Basescu?
De cine s-a ascuns Ponta la MApN? Si de ce vrea sa puna mana pe informatiile militare?
Oare Turcescu s-a desconspirat pentru ca Ponta sa sara pe el, si sa infiereze colaborarea cu serviciile secrete, ca apoi Basescu sa-l pocneasca cu recrutatrea sa de catre SIE?

Liniste, ca lucram

Il ascult pe Melescanu la TV si zice ca romanii s-au saturat de alegeri.
Zau? Cum sa ne saturam cand de abia de alegeri se da cu matura prin oras si se astupa gaurile din drum, iar saracii isi primesc kilul de faina de la PSD si galeata de la PNL?
Vreti chiar sa nu mai primim nimic? Cred ca ar trebui alegeri lunar, ca sa se schimbe ceva.
Eu cred ca mai degraba Securitatea s-a saturat sa se joace de a democratia, si s-a saturat de alegeri.

Cand societatea se destrama de obicei structurile de forta ale statului intervin sa propteasca statul, asa s-a intamplat in America de Sud si in Turcia, unde dupa perioade de haos, civil, s-au dat lovituri militare salutate de populatie.
La noi dupa o revolutie in care de abia am scapat de o dictatura nu se putea da o lovitura de stat militara, cu toata simpatia fata de armata, avuta de populatie in acel moment.
In schimb Securitatea a dat o lovitura de stat prin asa zisele mineriade, din iunie 90.
De unde stia minerul unde erau sediile partidelor politice? Nu  aveai Google Maps atunci.
Securitate controla ambele parti: minerii prin ofiterii acoperiti (Valea Jiului a fost infiltrata puternic dupa grevele din '77) si manifestantii din Piata Universitatii prin liderul studentilor Marian Munteanu.
Asa au putut sa creeze o stare de dezordine in care oamenii muncii vin si ajuta noile autoritati.
Opozitia a fost intimidata si dezorganizata.
Dezavantajul opozitiei era ca aveau nevoie de oameni si asa s-au putut infiltra mult agenti acoperiti, care la momentul oportun puteau crea disensiuni in interiorul fortelor de opozitie  care incercau sa se coaguleze.
Am putea spune ca agentii acoperiti din partide si societatea civila, controleaza pe agentii la vedere din servicii.
Iliescu vroia in '90 liniste ca se aseze la putere,acuma Melescanu vrea liniste,  ca afacerile Securitatii sa mearga tot inainte.

Christine Lagarde,IMF,Ebola and Africa

Christine Lagarde the chairwoman of International Monetary Fund said that we must not cut link with Africa because of Ebola.
Strange this sudden interest for Africa, maybe it has to do investments of big players in African agribusiness.
If Ebola is ravaging Africa no one will buy meat or other produce from Africa, a lot of millions invested in lands, tractors and bribes will not be recovered.
If IMF would care more about education and especially the sanitary education of the population, a less about budget deficit, maybe the expansion of Ebola will be slower.

Despre vinovatie

Valerian Vreme sustine ca nu este vinovat dar renunta la imunitate precum fostul sau sef de la PDL, Traian Basescu. Acesta a avut curajul sa renunte la imunitatea de la deputat, atunci cand a fost acuzat ca a vandut flota.
Din pacate Ecaterina Andronescu si Micky Spaga (Serban Mihailescu) sunt aparati de colegii din PSD cu tot felul de chichite avocatesti.
Probabil daca era la putere PDL-ul erau suspendati si era Vreme, annchetat.

Pe cine alegem sa faca politica in locul nostru

Marea minciuna a democractiei este ca oamenii fac politica.
In democratie alegem pe cine sa faca politica in locul nostru.
Calculele cu cine votam ca sa iasa in turul 2 la prezidentiale nu isi au rolul.
Trebuie sa votam pe cineva care sa ne reprezinte, si care sa poata face politica pentru noi.
Noi nu putem influenta ce intelegeri se fac pe culoarele puterii, dar trebuie sa fie cineva care sa aiba acelasi interes cu noi daca nu ne poate castiga increderea.

Ukraine under energetic siege

Russia cut the gas to Ukraine,Hungary did the same, the Donbas, region the source of Ukranian coal is in the hands of separatists (Russians), today a railroad in Odessa is blown up, maybe to cut of the port from the rest of the country.

The goal is clear: deprive Ukraine population from electricity and energy in the middle of the winter, destroy the economy, maybe people will rise against Poroshenko, and make the situation unstable at least. In this situation what are Ukraine options?
Ukraine consumed 70,246 millions metric tonnes of coal in 2008, At a price of 70$/metric tonne it will need 4,9 billion dollars for coal only.
Let's suppose that Odessa port will be cut off, and Ukraine cannot use it for imports, then the next step is to transport it by rail.
But Ukraine is using the rail broad gauge of 1,524 m while Romania,Poland,Slovakia and Hungary have standard gauge of 1,435 m.
So the wagons must change their wheels when they cross the border, this slowing down the transport.
If you look on this map you will see that Ukraine has very thin connections with countries from its west.
Should Ukraine change it's rail tracks? No, because its broad gauge allows bigger wagons and heavier loads can be transported. Even Austrians wanted to build a  broad gauge line between Kosice and Viena.
An interesting article which describes the rationale of choosing the rail gauge.

Poland with its production of 217,7 million metric tonnes can be a source of coal, if the Ukraine and Poland rail systems are connected.And this can be done: the Lublin basin is 200km west from Ukranian border. At a cost of 2 million $/km, it will cost 400 millions this means 8% of the value of the coal that can be exported in year in Ukraine (4,9 billions).

Inca o perdea de fum

Cand era arestat Popoviciu si presa vuia, a fost arestat Becali si toata presa s-a repezit ca o turma de caini flamanzi asupra lui Becali uitand de legaturile lui popoviciu cu Basescu.
Cand in Gandul se demasca mecanismul spagii in Romania apare Turcescu pe sticla si spune ca e ofiter acoperit, lucru pe care il banuiam, nu putem sa nu ne intrebam daca nu este iar o diversiune.
Baiguiala religioasa a lui Turcescu, nu clarifica nimic. Nu clarifica de ce s-a lasat recrutat.
Vechii securisti se scuzau ca au aparat tara cand ii hartuaiu pe cei de la Europa Libera.
Ce scuza are Turcescu ca a fost lider de opinie cu epoleti?

Oricum se apropie ceva nasol pentru cei de la putere, de vreme ce se arunca tot felul de fumigene cu tot felul de agenti acoperiti.

Book review: Why nations fail

I read a interesting book "Why nations fail" by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson.
This book should be on the reading list of Putin, but I doubt that he will use it for the benefit of his country. More likely he will use it to undermine other countries.
The book notice that since end of modern age the same countries from the West are leading in terms of economy, education and welfare.The only countries outside Europe and North America which share the same prosperity are the one who have the same inclusive political and economical institutions as in the West: Japan,South Korea, Australia,New Zeeland.
The book argues that the difference between prosper and poor nations is due to the difference between inclusive and extractive institutions.
For example West Germany was more prosperous because had inclusive institutions: parliament elected, by all citizens, freedom to travel, freedom to own propriety, freedom to speak freely and to be informed. In short more people were accepted into political and economic systems and the benefits were widely distributed.
East Germany on the other side had extractive institutions, the benefits of political power were shared only within communist party. Private propriety was not existing.
Same country same culture, different institutions,different results.
In inclusive institutions you have rights by birth, in extractive institutions you have granted some privileges.
The book says that in order to achieve a inclusive society, you should have a centralized state, you can't have inclusive solutions in Somalia or Congo were it is anarchy.
But if the centralized state is ruled by an absolutist ruler and not by law, with time the elite will try to concentrate all the economic power in their hand, and exclude others from the benefits, and innovation brought by outsiders will not have an impact in economy. So the second condition is that the government should not have a complete control over the population.
Russia is a classical example of extractive state, till XIX century it exploited its serfs, and since 1917 it exploited its peasants and workers. The rule of law was not present during the tsarist regime, was not present during communism and it is not present today.
In my opinion an inclusive society exist in a security sweet spot. The government has enough power to protect you from thieves, but the law and institutions can uphold you propriety rights against the government so you are not afraid that government will confiscate propriety and close your business.
If a country changes it's government from anarchy to centralisation, it will have a an economic growth regardless of institutions, because a lot of money used for protection or saved for rainy days will be spent or invested. All communist states had a period of growth after the war, because it was a demand for goods that compensate for the low quality, but when the economic power was in a grip of a elite, who was busy to exploit it, things got worse. No one had an incentive to work, everybody tried to climb the hierarchical ladder to improve his revenues.
Finally the extractive institutions will impoverish the country ruin the infrastructure and the army, the country will descend into chaos or it will be conquered.

Fighting Russia from your armchair 2: More useful idiots

I read in satirical newspaper Catavencii a an article by Doru Bucsu, in which condemns the aggressive attitude of president Basescu toward Russia, and says that it is our fault that we don't have better diplomatic relations with Russia and deeper economic ties.
Seen what is happening with Russia ban on European agricultural products, I am glad that we don't have big exports in Russia. In fact we shouldn't have deeper economic ties with countries were the will of the rulers is stronger than the law and your products can be banned at wish.
Regarding diplomatic relationships, how can he have good relations with a neighbour that threatens us with nuclear bombing in case we want to protect our country and allies from ballistic missiles?
How shall we deal with a character as Dimitri Rogozin who threaten that he will come back in Romania at a board of Tupolev bombardier?
This opinion that the we, the weaker country we are guilty for the actual situation, (or how I read on a comment: "... the small countries are guilty for starting war")  is the syndrome of blame the victim, in which the victims are responsible for crimes. So the Egyptians are guilty that they rose against a corrupt regime and they troubled the Middle East, and Ukranians that they have done the same and troubled Europe.
A good article regarding the blame victim fallacy is here.

Regarding victims if you are cornered by a bully, the worst thing it to be submissive, because you encourage him to come close to attack you, and by retreating you lose you opportunities to attack. If the bully sees that you are ready for fight, he will stay out of range of your kick for example,
In a fight first it is mental fight then a physical fight. If you lose the mental fight, you will lose it for sure the physical one.
So if we want to win the next war with Russia we must prepare mentally for the battle.

Another article in category useful idiots working for Russia, made me think about different views of the conflict from US and from rest of the world.
America thinks that it is so powerful that it can do whatever it wants, but the down side is that the critics of US are blaming it for everything wrong on the world, and Russians take advantage of that.

First of all US cannot do whatever it wants, see Ukraine case, so it cannot be blamed for everything that is happening. It can be blamed that is not pursuing strategic long terms goals, but concedes at the interests of corporations (see Latin America), or simply withdrawing from a situation without solving it (see Afghan withdrawal, abandonment hmong tribes in Laos, abandonment of democracy movement in Egypt)
The US cannot be blamed that in the Iraq chaos Shia and Sunni wanted to settle some scores.
The current situation is caused by the fact that Iraq society as most of the arab societies is composed of tribes that compete for resources. Once the oil resources were freed from Sadam grip the fought has started.
The US didn't need bombs in market squares. Those who put bombs are responsible.
The Sadam Hussein state was falling, sooner or late and the violence would burst, but US wanted to control things in Middle East, to grab the Iraq oil and to control the oil bought by China (the same is doing Russia with the gas and Crimea).
So they precipitate the things but the tensions were there ready to sprung.
They over estimated the support of Iraqis for Americans, and they underestimated the influence of tribal organisations.
The Iraqis were disappointed because they expected to be freed by americans in first Gulf War, but Bush senior kept his promise to Gorbatschev the president of Soviet Union that he will not occupy Iraq.
(You can blame now US that they keep their promise.)
This disinterest in Iraqis fate and this lack for forward thinking led to the second war and the current situation in which US is shy to respect its written commitment to the Ukrainian integrity.

One thing we must learn from these events (Ukraine and Middle East):

Bears are more powerful than bees, they like honey, this means that the bees should have been gone.
But the small creatures can chase a bigger predator with their small sting if they are work as a swarm.

US went to Iraq and it was stung, now it is Russia's turn to be stung in Ukraine.

How to fight Russia from your armchair

Russia has 4 weapons to use in it's aggression:
1.propaganda
2.money
3.politicians
4.armed forced
Being on the armchair you cannot fight Russian's huge army. So let's go to the next topic: 
Politicians:
Either they are paid as Gerhard Schroeder, or they are fooled as Sarkozy, these politicians sacrifice long term interest of the Europe and even their countries for their narrow interests, blocking a common position against Russia.
Other type of politicians who are making the Moscow's game without any gain, are separatist politicians.
The one who demand independence of Scotland,of Catalunia, of Transylvania.
Now it is no longer the case of ethnic persecution in UE, and I don't know how it will help the local economy the independence of Scotland for example, but the Scottish independence will split Great Britain, who is an enemy of Putin, and a friend of Russian oligarchs.
So if you want to stop Russia vote against the politicians and against Scottish independence.

Money:
The easiest form of economic warfare is boycott,Russia knows it because it is using it against Europe.
Unfortunatly Russia sells only gas,oil and minerals.
So don't supply your car from companies who trade Russian oil and reduce your gas consumption.

If you reduce  room temperature with 1 C degree, if you have a room of 3 by 4 meters with height of 2.5  , you will save 30m³*1.293kg/m^3*1.005kJ/kg.K*1K=39 kJ (3.507e-5 MBTU)

It is not much multiply this figure with population of Europe of 500000000 this will mean 17535 MBTU with a market value of over 66 million dollars.

Just save energy, good for you, good for mother nature, bad for comrade Putin.

Propaganda:

Russians had always a good propaganda machine, but propaganda can be annihilated with small doses of truth.

So be informed and inform others. Read history books about Soviet Union and Tzarist Russia.

Kremlin pays agents of influence to post comments on important sites, confront them if they are spreading lies.

Interesting that many organisations, sites and persons who accused US about human rights violation, and aggression are turning a blind eye to what is happening now in Ukraine.

The soviets have always underlined the faults in the western state to gain the support of disillusioned idealists some of them become spies or deserters to Russia, and many more become agents of influence, supporting dissolution of NATO, the only alliance that put a break on Russia's expansionism.

So let's give up to the idealism: everybody spies, we cannot let the intelligence gathering only to the Russians and Chinese, because it is a dirty business.

It is more important what can a state do with all this information.

If you criticize you government in the West, maybe you don't get its attention but in Russia you can receive a bullet in the head as Anna Politovka or being poisoned with polonium like Litvinenko. 

One wall is better than two

Nicolo Machiavelli in his book 'Art of war' says that you should not build a fortress with 2 walls, because the defenders will give up easily the first wall because they have back-up and they will seek refuge inside the inner wall, and thus the enemy will easily build a foot bridge.
Western Europe is like two walled fortress, the Eastern Europe and Ukraine being the external wall protecting against Tatars and Russians, and their economies being the inner wall.

So it is easy for them to trade Eastern Ukraine and Crimea for peace and mineral resources.
If they do so they might strength the inner wall temporary but they will lose forever the outer wall.

If Russia retains Crimea and creates a corridor to there,the Putin regime will get a boost, and the division between West and Eastern Europe will increase because East will feel betrayed.
The east Europe cannot secede from Union because they are weak but they will try to take control, and Poland,Romania, Baltic States and Scandinavian States could coordinate their efforts to diminish the influence of some Russian sympathetic states.
Germany is controlled from left with former communists infiltrated in SPD and from right with business men with ties with Russia.
France internal deficit makes it sensitive to big contracts cancellation, and has to choose between economic losses or political losses within EU in Ukraine crisis.
Most of the  exports of France and Germany are within EU a boycott will damage their economies stronger than an increase of gas price.

Easter Europe has motivated soldiers, because there are people who survived Russian occupation and communism, and know that it is better to live in cold and hunger than under Russian boot.
Western Europe doesn't have a motivated population to endure a war with Russia but has the money and the guns, so all it has to do it is to give money and guns in Eastern Europe especially in Ukraine to assure that their citizens don't have to fight.
But for that they need guts to start a fight.

Intrebarea cheie

Eu i-as intreba pe cei care au iesit sa protesteze impotriva arestarii lui Voiculescu, cat castiga, si cat castiga Voiculescu? Si de ce ei nu au macar o fractiune din banii lui Voiculescu.
Cred ca s-ar lamuri repede, cum stau lucrurile, invidia este mai puternica decat propaganda politica si mai puternica decat ratiunea.

Dead souls

In her book 'A dirty war' Anna Politovskaia describes how russian soldiers were sent to Chechnya without identification tags, without fingerprints recorded or blood sample taken, and mother of the missing soldiers had to wait months or years to receive an answer if their missing sons were dead or not.
Sometimes they traveled to Chechnya to ransom the body of their sons from the mafia.
Now the relatives of MH17 crash victims know that they are dead, but they are in same situation as mothers of young Russian soldiers, without a body to grieve.
It seems that in Russia nothing has changed since Nikolai Gogol wrote the story "Dead Souls".
If in the story a man called Chichikov wants to buy names of dead peasants to increase his social status, now Putin uses dead passengers bodies as bargaining chips in a poker game against the world.

Russia will be the next Yugoslavia?

A communist multiethnic federation breaks up.
Some authoritarian president wants to patch his state, but he cannot overtly use force, so instead he supports with training, guns and men creation of paramilitary forces in claimed territory.
These paramilitary soldiers are pawn of this psychopathic president who publicly denies any involvement and urges for peace. The relations between the paramilitary and secret services of president states are always at low level, without any written orders.
Finally the paramilitary makes a mistake and enrages the public community, and the president distance himself from  paramilitary leaving them to pay the bill.
This happened in Yugoslavia 20 years ago and the president was Milosevic, and the incident was Srebrenica_massacre but the situation is similar  with what is happening now in Ukraine.
Then and now the West was slow to react, and violence spread. Then West supported Slovenian,Croats and some muslims, Russia and China supported the communist Milosevic and Serbian side, Saudi Arabia supported the radical Muslims.
Now West supports the Ukrainian government, the Islamic states support the Muslims and Russia supports the separatists from eastern Ukraine.
It seems that it is the same play,almost the same actors but the ending could be different now.

What will happen next?
First of all the Ukrainian crisis is global, it is not longer regional, before shooting of the plane, if you lived in Australia,Malaysia or even Holland, you could care less about fighting in Donetsk.
These affected countries need to retaliate, in order to maintain their internal cohesion. The frustration must be vent up through aggression towards the culprit. And the culprit is Russia, even they didn't ordered the shooting of the plane.
Australia cannot impose sanctions on separatists from Ukraine but it can do that on Russia.

What Russia will do?
First they tried to blame others, Ukrainian in this case, but even separatists themselves bragged that they shoot a plane.
So now they will blame the separatists, a faceless force, of people who bought their guns and uniforms from Donetsk mall.
But the problem is that without proper training the separatists couldn't not have operate the BUK anti-aircraft system. This article shows how difficult is to operate this system.
The people have to be trained.No ragtag militia can operate such a system, and don't think that Ukrainian army surrender their rockets to the people of Donetsk willingly.

If indeed the Ukraine military switched sides and gave the BUK system, why till now the separatist didn't shut down an high flying plane? So the BUK came recently after the separatist were losing ground because of lack of air power.
The only source for separatist BUK rockets is Russia.

What will do Russia next?

Rationally demands to  negotiate an exit from Ukraine, in order to avoid complete isolation, and economic sanctions now when everybody is demanding it.
But  Kremlin doesn't behave rationally. They will continue to support insurgents,  but they will provide for air cover themselves. Already they bombed one of their village to provide a motivation for the Russian public to support this action "to protect the motherland".

NATO in his turn will provide air cover for Ukraine, and Soviet Union and NATO will fight in the sky as in Korean War. NATO will try to do this by a UN resolution. In Security council Russia will veto and China will support it by abstaining.

How it will be the end?
In Yugoslavian wars Milosovic was beaten because his country was small isolated, had weaker air power than US and internal opposition was well organized.
Russia now is big, it doesn't care too much about isolation, has big air power and opposition is weak.
So the economic sanctions will have effects only on long term, and bombing is not an option.
The bombing was ineffective also in Yugoslavia, people united against foreign aggression and Milosevic lose power only in face of opposition demonstrations against rigging the elections.
The only people who can stop this madness are the russians, they have the mandate to overthrow Putin, but the country is big and it is hard to organize a opposition against Putin, without the risk of being poisoned.
Only in 2018 when  Putin will arrange some elections it is possible to change him.
I think till 2018 the involvement of Russia in Ukraine will continue, despite the sanctions and despite the impoverishment of ordinary Russians.
If the conflict will escalate, after the air fight between NATO and Russia, will follow naval battles, commando incursions and sabotages, and finally a full scale war.  NATO will try to avoid war but Putin will go too far.


After the Yugoslavian war Milosevic and Karadzic were trialed and convicted by an UN penal court, I hope that the authors of yesterday massacre and of crimes in Ukraine will have the same fate.

Razboi mediatic si capitalism

Daca in perioada crizei economice din 1929, Uniunea Sovietica se sprijinea pe comunistii idelisti, acuma rusia se sprijina pe dezamgitii capitalismului, din est. Astfel pe forumuri nu mai apar comentarii pro-ruse si anti-americane, ci mai degraba comunist nostalgice,anti-capitaliste si uneori anti-semite.

Oare cine a pus la TVR filmul lui Michale Moore "Capitalism a love story".
Exista o dicrepanta intre teoria si practica capitalismului.
In teorie a piata perfecta a un numar mare de firme care sa ofere produse similare la un pret jos.
In realitate chiar daca toti pornesc de la aceiasi conditii datorita diferentelor individuale unii au succes si altii nu. Altii se extind si altii pier. Competitia darwinista face legea, si piata este acaparata de un numar limitat de firme, care se pot carteliza si dicta pretul pietei.
Asupra econmiei mai afecteaza si socializarea umana, cum spuneam mai sus, competitorii se pot carteliza si fixa preturile.
Politica poate avea un rol foarte mare, unele firme reusind datorita influentei politice sa se aboneze la contracte cu statul sau sa nu fie controlate la impozite.

Capitalismul nu e perfect dar merge, si trebuie perfectionat,nu trebuie sa ne aruncam iar dupa utopii.
Cica in vremea perestroikai, rusii au trimis pe cineva la Londra sa afle care este sistemul lor de alimentare cu paine, ceea ce a derutat gazdele engleze. In capitalism nu ai un sistem de aprovizionare cu paine, dar totusi ai paine la fiecare colt de strada.

Ponta: "Ne descurcam noi,domnule Presedinte"

Daca nu as fi auzit asta de la Ponta la televizor as fi crezut ca aceasta perla a iesit din gura unui elev care nu a invatat pentru BAC si se bazeaza pe copiat.

Stiind ca Ponta e duplicitar, eu cred ca el saboteaza aceasta masura, stiind ca nu poate acoperi gaura de 5 miliarde, dar fiind obligat de cineva/ceva sa o ia.
Neputand sa bage copilul inapoi in pantec, Ponta il lasa sa moara de foame.
Alfel nu imi explic de ce nici Ponta nici ministra finantelor nu au oferit datele solicitate de presedinte.
Pana la urma este o chestie bun simt, daca iei de undeva trebuie sa pui la loc.

How Austria gets away with murder? It has a good PR

Today are 100 years since the beginning of first world war and everybody claims that the war started when the Serb Gavrilo Princip killed archiduke Franz Ferdinand.
For starting of such a gruesome war  the despicable, savage and bloodthirsty  people from Balkans are to blame, the not civilized people from Mitteleuropa, who were sipping coffee in Vienna, and discussed philosophy and art.
Probably after sipping a flavored coffee and eating a croissant the civilized and mild mannered officials of Austro-Hungarian government gave an unacceptable ultimatum to Serbia, which will lead to intervention of Russia and start of the first world war.
Austria and Russia collapsed and only  Germany, had to pay the bill of the war started by Austria.
It is not over: the country who gave Sigmund Freud the well known Jewish psychiatrist, gave birth to Hitler the well known antisemitic psychopath.
After the fall of third Reich, Austrian posed as victims, and pretend to forget the their enthusiasm toward creation of the Reich and persecution of the Jews. Sigmund Freud recounts an episode in which his father dressed as a soldier, was not allowed to walk the side-walk because he was a Jew, this was in 19 century.
At that time the Jews in Germany were very well assimilated.
Germany pays compensation for the Holocaust victims since 1952 ,Austria since 2001 despite the both countries having concentration camps and Nazi's.
Did hear about a Vienna trial for Nazi's? No.
While the Germans are very careful with nationalism, Joerg Haider, a head of a nationalistic party entered in government.
But it is not over yet. Frustrated that it is not longer an empire, Austria encouraged independence movement of Slovenia in order to gain access to Adriatic Sea. Many republics followed Slovenia example, and Yugoslavian war started.(The Serbs are also to blame.)
Its imperialism it is also economic, its bank and insurance companies bought large chunks of financial market from countries that have belong to Austrian empire.
The Austrian OMV bought the oil company Petrom and it''s gas and oil sources.
Now OMV has signed a contract with contract with Gazprom, undermining the European unity and stabbing in the back Romania,Ukraine and  other countries from East that have problems with Russia.
Austria and Russia will share as in good old times, the eastern Europe?

What I don't like it is the fact that the small countries are to be blamed. The savages are blamed for European colonialism, the Serbia is blamed for first world war. In reality the small actors reacted to what big actors did.
It seems that it is fashionable in Austria to blame the Serbs. I have read a title in a Vienna newspaper: "A Serb stabs 2 people". I read the main article: A drunken Serb killed 2 people in Belgrade.
The journalist put the title because many xenophobic Austrians would buy it.
In Mozart's country the people are drinking spritz and don't kill each other.
Instead only accidents happens, like this one:
"Daughter imprisoned in a cellar for 24 years,rapped by her father:
Police said the 42-year-old woman, identified only as Elisabeth F, told them her father, Josef, had lured her into the basement of the block where the family lived in Amstetten, north-west Austria, on August 24 1984, and allegedly drugged and handcuffed her before locking her up in the dungeon. A police spokesman said she was "psychologically extremely disturbed", but her version of events was "completely believable".The father was in custody last night.She said she had been abused by him from the age of 11. "In her own words, she was continuously abused by her father," the spokesman said. She said she had borne seven children by her father, including twins, one of whom died in 1996 after just three days. The father removed the body from the cellar and burnt it.Police said many questions remained to be answered in the case, which is reminiscent of that of the Austrian girl Natascha Kampusch, who was abducted, aged 10, on her way to school and locked in a windowless cell before dashing to freedom in August 2006.
"
Why the bad things stick to east Europeans, and Austria is like Teflon ?

Cine da tonul la politicienii din Bucuresti?

Victor Ponta si-a indulcit tonul la adresa presedintelui, acum nu mai cere demisia presedintelui in legatura cu asociarea cu mafiotul tigan Bercea Mondialul.
Oare Washingtonul l-a tras de urechi, ca incalca intelegerea de coabitare si aduce instabilitate in vecinatatea Ucrainei si Moldovei?
S-au l-a santajat Basescu ca da si el in vileag intelegerile pe care le-a facut PSD-ul cu  tiganii mafioti?
Oricum daca pentru demiterea lui Basescu,Ponta ar fi adus ca argument incuscrirea presedintelui Romanieni cu mafiot tigan m-as fi dus si eu la referendum si as fi votat impotriva lui Basescu, dar se vede ca sunt niste ageamii.
In legatura cu familia Basescu nu pot sa le zic decat atat:
Daca nu va fost greata sa va incuscriti cu un mafiot si sa jucati la nunta lui, macar puteati sa fi destepti si sa faceti precum John F. Kennedy, care dupa ce a castigat presedentia Americii, l-a chemat pe Frank Sinatra prietenul lui de pahar, care avea prieteni mafioti, si i-a spus ca nu se mai pot vedea cat timp este presedinte deoarece are prieteni lui l-ar compromite politic. Frank Sinatra a inteles si s-a despartit amical si nu s-au mai vazut niciodata.

2 types of people on youtube

There are 2 kind of people on youtube:
One kind is the people who are trying to be smart, and the other one people who are trying to be stupid and funny.
The problem is when a stupid person tries to be smart, a smart person tries to be funny by being stupid.

PSD-ul e disperat si cumpara din greu voturi

Nu imi explic altfel cum se dau vouchere pentru vacanta la bugetari. Nu inteleg unde poti sa cheltui 5000 de lei in Romania pe o vacanta normala.
Plata asta merge si la bugetari si la privati.
Nu stiu daca va tine.

Victoria partidului stat

Intr-o disputa cu un prieten pro-monarhist, i-am spus ca sistemul republican e mai bun doarece ofea o selectie mai buna. Daca nu stii sa castigi niste alegeri cum sa conduci o tara.
PSD-ul poate nu stie sa conduca o tara dar stie sa castige alegerile.
Se uneste cu tot soiul de partide clientelare, reuseste sa dezbine opozitia, sau profita de dezbinarea existenta.
Are o organizare buna in teritoriu.Ei castiga in judetele lor fief deoarece acolo nu vezi afise ale opozitiei. Iar afisele conteaza in cazul unei populatii indiferente politic dar care se duce la vot cum este cea de la tara.
Se bazeaza pe asistatii sociali, care sunt multi si usor de multumit.(E mai usor sa dai un kil de faina la sinistrati si sa primesti votul lor decat sa le faci un dig si sa ceara apoi si drum)
Nu ezita sa triseze si sa faca campanii murdare, si nu au scrupule in a se alia cu potentialii adversari politici (vezi PNL) pentru ai injunghia pe la spate.
Dar cel mai important este ca au o gandire pe termen lung si stiu cand sa faca pasul inapoi pentru a-si prinde adversarii in offside.
In 1996 cand situatia economica era grava, i-au lasat pe cei din CDR sa traga ponoasele guvernarii.
Iliescu atunci de parada lua partea sarbilor in chestiunea permiterii trecerii avioanelor NATO, in timp ce se intelesese cu americanii si Constantinescu sa nu se opuna acestui lucru.
In octombrie 2009 simtind criza apropiindu-se au demisionat din guvern si l-au lasat pe Boc sa se friga cu criza, sa-si piarda din popularitate.
PDL-istii in loc sa propuna un guvern de tehnocrati ca sa ia masurile necesare si sa preia asupra lor nemultumirile populatiei s-au repezit la putere, si au platit pretul.
In plus in loc sa faca reforme structurale si populatia asistata social sa scada, au facut ceea ce au facut si PSD-istii: au capusat statul cu rude si cu contracte preferentiale.
Ce ii trebuie opozitiei pentru a castiga?
Sa nu se alieze cu PSD-ul orice ar fi. (Vana bolsevica a PSD-ului nu tolereaza rivalitatea politica)
Sa sacrifice interesele economice in favoarea castigarii puterii politice.
Sa lase orgoliile deoparte si sa inchege o alianta .

Sa coopereze pentru mentinerea legalitatii alegerilor. (Oare ce se intampla daca madam Udrea venea cu o inregistrare video, a deplasarii autocarelor cu votanti ilegali?) Am auzit de fraudarea alegerilor, de autocare dar n-am vazut dovezi si nici arestati.
Sa aiba curajul sa se bage in fiefurile PSD, si sa lupte pentru fiecare circumscriptie si fiecarea afis, pentru ca acolo sunt oameni nemultumiti care pot fi un potential electoral.
Sa ajute cu asistenta juridica gratuita, orice om nedreptatit de PSD, asta inaintea alegerilor.
Sa contracareze influentarea tineretului de catre PSD.(Parca este ilegal sa folosesti minori pentru actiuni politice, dar PSD-ul a trims minori pentru a rupe afisele opozitiei)
Sa recicleze oamenii din fata. Madam Udrea desi este cunoscuta, nu este iubita. Narcisismul dumneaiei o impiedica sa vada acest lucru.
Sa atraga oameni integri si sa-i puna in functii de decizie.
Sa faca sitemul de alegeri din interior mai democratic, pentru ca cel mai bun sa castige, nu cel care are mai multe pile.

Si sa planifice totul pe macar 8 ani.
Un partid foarte puternic nu foloseste nimanui, mai ales unul care se trage din PCR.

Lasati mortii in pace

Cred ca PSD-ul este bantuit de necrofilie, deoarece dupa inhumarea lui Carol al-II-lea cu onoruri militare, si trimiterea la vot a mortilor din Teleorman, a aparut pe afisele lor un mormant.
Este vorba de Mausoleul de la Marasesti unde odihnesc osemintele eroilor ce au aparat tara.
Totusi ce vor sa ne promita cu acest afis?
Vom avea garantat o noua batalie de la Marasesti in viitorul razboi mondial?
Este de presupus ca da, deoarece batalia de la Marasesti a avut loc dupa ce a fost pierduta aproape toata tara, datorita incompetentilor numiti pe pile (vezi cazul generalului Socec) si a politicii externe cretine de cucerire a unor teritorii fara valoare (ma refer la Cadrilater), iar PSD-ul are potentialul de a infaptui conditiile aparitiei unui Marasesti in urmatorul razboi. Din pacate taranii sunt plecati prin Spania, si nu vor putea sa apere tara.

Pentru PSD-isti cu afisele lor demagogice am o dedicatie din partea altui mort:

"Peste toate o lopată de ţărână se depune.
Mâna care-au dorit sceptrul universului şi gânduri
Ce-au cuprins tot universul încap bine-n patru scânduri...
Or să vie pe-a ta urmă în convoi de-nmormântare,
Splendid ca o ironie cu priviri nepăsătoare...
Iar deasupra tuturora va vorbi vrun mititel,
Nu slăvindu-te pe tine... lustruindu-se pe el
Sub a numelui tău umbră. Iată tot ce te aşteaptă.
Ba să vezi... posteritatea este încă şi mai dreaptă.

Neputând să te ajungă, crezi c-or vrea să te admire?
Ei vor aplauda desigur biografia subţire
Care s-o-ncerca s-arate că n-ai fost vrun lucru mare,
C-ai fost om cum sunt şi dânşii... Măgulit e fiecare
Că n-ai fost mai mult ca dânsul. Şi prostatecele nări
Şi le umflă orişicine în savante adunări
Când de tine se vorbeşte. S-a-nţeles de mai nainte
C-o ironică grimasă să te laude-n cuvinte. "

Mihai Eminescu "Scrisoarea I"

Worst fear of USA

The American government always feared that the terrorist will be in the possession of nuclear weapons. Now with hostage situation from Easter Ukraine, Russia a great nuclear power became a terrorist state.
I suspect that the next Bond villain will be Russian.

Ukraine Anschluss

Events in Ukraine in 2014 are very similar with what happened in Austria in 1938 .
A bigger state with better economy and with a dictator as leader, occupied a neighboring country with a similar language without firing a shot.
The ease of annexation was caused by several factors:
-cultural similarities: Germany and Austria have the same language and a common history, Russia and Ukraine have similar languages, and first Slavic kingdom was formed at Kiev.
-an important political minority from annexed land supported the union.(Austrian Nazi Party respective pro-Russian parties)
-terrorist attacks were carried out by forces friendly to the authoritarian neighbor.
-after the occupation of the government a referendum was held (99.7% of Austrians  "voted" the Anschluss, while in Crimea 97% of people voted for union with Russia)
-Germany gained access to mineral resources, and hydroelectricity resource of Austria, Russia gained access to Ukraine oil and gas from Black sea.
What will happen?
After Hitler occupied Austria he tight his grip and started to arrest and kill people who oppose him, he confiscated the wealth of Jews and chased them out of country.
If Putin will gain control over part of the Ukraine the same thing will happen, the non-Russian population, will be convinced to leave and those who are stubborn will be individually persecuted. It seems that it is already doing this in Crimea.
Now only 9% of Austrians are consider themselves German, I expect that fewer and fewer Ukrainians to consider themselves Russians in near future.
The separatists from East Ukraine are using Maidan rhetoric and tactics.
If both side are using the same tactics and pretend to have the same ideology who should be supported?
The fact that Ukrainians overthrow their government shows that it is democracy that functions. You have a democracy when the people can stop some unpopular policy, not when you have organized elections.
 Russia democracy is organized by  KGB and Putin changes with Medvedev presidential terms in order to stay in power. The democratic elections serve only  to legitimate this system, and the freedom of speech is chocked under waves of propaganda.

If the 25 Mai elections in Ukraine will be held, the Kiev government will be legitimate and Moscow will not called them fascists without  insulting the whole country. And for sure the government will not be Russian friendly,even if pro-Russian forces gain power they cannot overtly support Putin.So it is in interest of Russia to  sabotage these elections and scare Russians with a anti-Russian fascist government in Kiev, because otherwise it doesn't have arguments to gain their support.
So the Ukrainian government should not start anti-Russian measures, should minimize casualties, expel the  agents provocateurs and seal the border with Russia. For the first 2 measures the government should do nothing, for the second 2 measures, a don't see enough drive or competence, either because they don't have the capabilities or some Ukrainian security forces are infiltrated by Russian agents, and Kremlin knows before hand their moves.

Understanding Putin

I just read the book "The Wisdom of Psychopaths" by Kevin Dutton and one chapter is analyzed the chicken game from movie "Rebel without a cause" .
In the book the chicken game is analyzed using a decision matrix from game theory.
Instead of Buzz and Jim in the matrix I will put Putin and NATO:

	Putin non-psychopath	Putin psychopath
NATO non-psychopath	Ukraine is neutral or the influence is shared	NATO refrains from use of force.Putin gains Crimea and tries to get more from Ukraine
NATO psychopath	NATO pushes troops near Russia.Seeks to gain 100% influence in Ukraine,Belarus. Russia refrains from intervention, it is defensive,increases military budget.	Direct war over Ukraine. World war 3 has just began.

It is clear that NATO cannot be psychopathic because of collective nature of decisions. This reduces the risk of an impulsive decision.And thanks to that we don't have yet WW3
But Putin it is in a ideal position for a psychopath: alone with all the power, surrounded by yes-men who obey to his whims.
The author Kevin Dutton has discovered that secret service work is ideal for psychopaths, because some jobs require to manipulate,cheat,steal and kill without being hindered by emotions or remorse. According to the book James Bond is a psychopath.
Putin was a KGB agent, he is an egomaniac who likes to be photographed shooting tigers,riding horses and flying planes. He doesn't show emotions in general.
If Putin is psychopath he will continue to defy and provoke the West, using peoples as pawns in a game to regain the strength of Russia, but he will risk ending up like Buzz, into the flames, because we doesn't understands and despises a democratic society.

Black sea will be russian lake ?

I was wondering why the US didn't dispatch the 6-th fleet from Mediterranean into Black sea, to show Russian that it is ready to reinforce the Budapest treaty, which guaranteed the integrity of Ukraine.
The reason is simple: it can't cross the Bosporus strait . According to the Montreux convention the countries which don't have sea shore to Black sea cannot pass through Bosphorus strait a ship with a displacement greater than 15000 tonnes and cannot keep more than 30000 tonnes  in Black sea.

The carrier USS George H. Bush has 51000 tonnes, and it is very tricky to cross with an air carrier through a narrow strait.By accident a ship can collide and 6 billion carrier can remain stuck in Bosphorus strait, while the Syrian coast is unguarded.

So United States cannot use their naval force into Black sea, and neither the British. (The Ukraine made a bad deal when they choose these naval powers a guarantors for it independence).

The only forces in the Black sea are Russia with their aged fleet and Turkey with a more modern fleet.
But Turkey approach Putin recently for some energy deals, and the relations between EU and Turkey are low,Erdogan has internal problems so it doesn't want to be involved.

UE need gas and oil, the countries from Central Asia have both, but don't want to sell to Russia for petty cash, they want to sell it to Europeans or Chinese for hard cash.
The only route to transport hydrocarbons that avoids Russia is through Azerbaijan,Georgia and Turkey.
If Russia will get its hands on Georgia it will grab EU by the balls. It will dictate the terms. The whole Europe will be ruled by Kremlin via energy corporations. This is the reason why Putin wanted the Mistral landing ships. Search for a pretext and occupy Georgia, from sea.
Another power that will be happy if the Europeans will be chased away from Central Asia is China. It will be less bidding for gas and oil.
Taking Crimea, Putin has deprived Europe from another source of off shore gas and oil, and US must spread now military resources in 3 crisis China in west Pacific, Syria and Black sea.
For Putin rebuilding URSS matters, but controlling sources of energy, and squeezing money from EU matters more.
So I think that current troubles in Harkiv are a decoy, the West will fight to keep the Ukraine intact while Putin will extend his control over Black Sea and it's energy resources.
If Putin's main target is oil and gas will he try to disrupt Romania's offshore hydrocarbon sources?
Romania is a NATO member state, and direct approach cannot be used.
Russia can use the Transnistrean republic to create tension and determine Bucharest to help Moldova and attack Tiraspol, then Russia, will attack Romania and conquer Snake Island and take away the oil and gas deposits.Article 5 applies when a country is attacked not when it attacks, so it will be another excuse for US not to do anything, while Russia grabs Black sea.

What it is clear is that Romanian navy needs an upgrade.The oil companies from Black sea should make a donation, after all Romania is defending their interests.
I heard that France has 2 Mistral ships in construction, maybe they sold to us instead of Russians.

Smart tactic, stupid strategy

Who lives in Eastern Europe it is not surprised at all about Putin intention to occupy Ukraine, but many US analysts are surprised, they expected that Putin should behave rationally,and to gain ground in Crimea via political pressure and diplomacy . They consider him a smart person who cannot make such a blunder.
But let's analyze another smart man who made a big mistake: Osama bin Laden.
He was smart, you cannot be stupid if you organize a terrorist network the size  of Al-Quida and plot the 11 September attacks. But the idea to attack US and wake the sleeping giant, was not a good one, and Al-Quida received blow after blow and finally bin Laden was killed.
So Osama was smart in applying the tactics, but was a weak strategist and attacked at the wrong time at the wrong place.
The politics in US is ruled by the public opinion, which demands what it is told to via media channels.
Usually the US public opinion doesn't care about Afghanistan, Somalia or other country, but September 11 attacks  made them care, and request a strong response.I don't think any president would have survived politically without doing something after the September 11.
The other mistake, was that US is a young nation, who knew only success in foreign politics till now, and doesn't accept failure. The 11 September attacks were a failure and a shame for US  and public opinion demanded a decisive action to be taken, to restore the status and the pride of US, so they went after Osama.
The attacks from Madrid Atocha Railroad station from 2004 didn't determine the same response from public opinion, because Spain it is a nation in decline, it has lost its empire and desire for expansion, it has no status to defend.
An the third mistake that Osama has been made, it is that attacked during the presidency of a republican.
National Rifle Association and christian churches vote republican, and these people are not alianated by a war against arabs.
The forth mistake of bin Laden it is his narrow and strong religious beliefs, who limited his thinking and options.Maybe he had fanatic followers but he has lost a lot of Muslim allies.

Now let's see what mistakes Putin has done:
He comes from KGB, it respect black ops,order and discipline, but a strong army must have a strong economy. A strong economy produced diverse things to cover a wide variety of needs.
To produce a great variety of needs you need diverse economic agents and diverse technologies.
An army needs gun,fuel, but also bread,socks, clothes. And for having bread you need fertilizers,tractors and so on.
The quality of civilian industry is very important for an army.
For example:
During the world war a British toy factory was converted in an arms factory that produced Sten gun, this meant that it produced cheap and good, an it was forced to do so by the years of market competition.
In the same war, US supplied armament for 2 fronts and for Soviet Union, who cannot produced trucks,cans and other goods, this because it had a diverse economy.
Putin thinks if we has a grip on the resources, and his security forces crush any dissidents, he will have the liberty to do what he wants abroad.
Concentrating power in his hands and his cronies he didn't allowed the diversity to emerge and to offer an alternative to a resource based economy.And with a few undifferentiated resources he can be easily be embargoed. Maybe Germany won't sell VW in Russia. It can sell elsewhere with same success because it has few competitors.
Cuban cigars are sold despite the embargo because they can differentiate. They cannot be easily replaced.
Can you tell me the difference between gas from Qatar and from Russia?
Putin was good at tactic.He timed his invasion well, Soci Olympics distracted  the world outside the Eastern Europe, the US was busy with China expansion near Philippines, Ukraine is in disarray,Europeans are some sissies that want cheap gas and contracts with Russia, also at White House you have a weak president, who tries to reduce military costs, because some greedy bankers wasted some trillion dollars.
Maybe Europeans are some sissies, but they are traumatized by wold war 2, and nobody wants to see another one. Especially East Europeans, who endured Russian occupation for more than 50 years.
UE is used with soft power and and brutal actions of Russia reignited their fear,and now will take more concentrating actions.Till now the focus of EU politics was inside, now it will be outside.
Fear can be a strong motivation to put aside quarrels and cooperate.
The biggest mistake of Putin is that he lives in past, and like Osama bin Laden is so brainwashed that he cannot acknowledge, that the system was wrong and crumbled by internal causes.
To understand him rationally you must understand his irrationality.

Hoti din toate tarile uniti-va

Fac un apel la toti cetatenii romani,moldoveni si ucrainieni care fura prin Europa, sa zica ca-s rusi.
Vom strica astfel imaginea rusilor, in tarile care le sunt prietene: Franta si Marea Britanie, si ii vom obisnui pe cetatenii vestici, cu armata ruseasca care nu le va mai cere "Davai ceas" ci "Давай смартфон"